Get the Press Enterprise today

[hipmatt]

We all have different opinions as to the speed and extent of a decline but NO ONE here is expecting good things to happen in the housing market but rather bad things to happen. That makes us all genreally negative on housing.

So a correction = a bad thing.  This is long overdue.  Mostly, irresponsible people will be affected in a negative way, and in the end responsible people will be rewarded.  Housing, may become affordable or in line with rents and incomes again.  How is hoping for that negative?  I say it IS a good thing, hopefully it puts a lot of unethical lenders out of business, and prevents future weeds from sprouting.  People who intend to put a down payment and eventually pay off their home may have a shot at getting a good deal.

Sure, some people will loose their homes, but..

A. They never really owned them or had equity in the first place.

B.  They never really could afford that home in the first place.

C.  Are going to have to rent again, which is actually better for them.

D.  Hopefully they will learn a lesson that buying a house is about paying off a responsible loan in order to OWN a home, not take out any loan possible that gets me in the door. 

E.  Maybe in the future, we will have much tighter lending standards as mandatory.  Once again,  owning a home isn't for everyone, a degree of responsibility is required, it is not a right here in the US, it is a privilege. 

F.  It is a great thing for people who pay cash or have a large down payment.

G.  Hopefully it puts a lot of unethical loan officers, and lenders out of business and forces them to get real jobs.

 

I still consider myself positive on housing. 

[sdrealtor]

Enough with the spin!

I’d consider it a good thing if affordability was restored also. But right now you are negative. Look at the words you wrote: irresponsible people and unethical lenders. Those are not happy, touchy feely thoughts. I’m done with this thread. VC got the point.

[sdrealtor]

NSR,
That is one of the most brilliant observations I have read on this board. When I think back in time, that is EXACTLY what happened here in SD. My area exploded between mid 2003 and mid 2004 at which point it stopped. Between mid 2004 and 2005 places like Oceanside and San Marcos boomed.

I never thought about it the way you just laid it out but that is what Is aw happen.

Great Post

[Reality]

Sorry you feel that way sdrealtor. I both expect and am rooting for a correction. Positively.

Those of us on the sidelines didn’t create the bubble, and most of us are smart enough to stay clear until things shake out. The idiots who bid prices out of sight without the wherewithal to afford those prices deserve bankruptcy, and so do the lenders who enabled them.

[Borat]

Lots of good points here. One thing that will be interesting is to see how many of those folks that are in good shape mortgage-wise (bought 2003 or earlier, fixed-rate mortgage, not too much heloc, etc…) have jobs that are dependent on the housing bubble. Finance, mortgage, banking, appraising, construction, etc… Although they weren’t irresponsible in their purchase or finance, they still may end up in a must-sell situation based on job loss or downsizing. Could take a while though especially if they raid their home equity or 401k to ride out the pain.

[waiting hawk]

[temeculaguy]

Initially I saw the map and got excited because the zip code I am watching (92592) was in red, yipee!! Then I read the legend and the colors are based on the total numbers of foreclosures in a zip code, not a percentage of foreclosures to properties or population. Perris wasn’t even red and that is the highest rate per 1,000 households in the state last month, made national headlines. That wan’t so much a foreclosure map as it was a population map, many of the zips in red are the most populated zips. From that map, Temecula 92592 (population 56,000) has more forclosures than Temecula 92590 (population 3,446). And Murrieta 92563 (population 22,458) was also red. So that must mean that 92592 and 92563 have about the same amount of stress on R/E and 92590 has more stability. What it means is that 92563 has twice the forclosure rate of 92592 and doesn’t tell me jack about 92590. These were the first four comparisons I made and since it was all useless info, so I stopped there. As Espn’s Chirs Berman says, “lets go inside the numbers.”

It is obvious that forclosures are on the rise and prices are falling but do not draw any conclusions about trends based on that p.o.s. map. Come to think of it i bet there are more forclosures in California than Iowa, More in New York, than Rhode Island, maybe I should make a map.

[AK]

Very good observation about the map data temeculaguy.

I worked in the newspaper industry for years … based on that experience, I’d guess that no one in the newsroom had the necessary mathematical skills to calculate the ratio of foreclosures to population or households.

[Author]

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