future scenario for downtown housing market

[Bugs]

They’re still adding inventory and there are several projects that are planned and ready to go if the market conditions recover to the point that they will become profitable.

What we haven’t seen so far )at least I haven’t seen it) is whether there is sufficient demand for the existing units.

The downtown area is a great place to live if you’re into the nighlife and the arts – two things that San Diego is not known for. downtown is a great place to live if that’s where you work. Increasingly the main high-dollar employment is moving out to the ‘burbs. San Diego is a great place to retire – if you have a LOT of money. The boomer generation coming up mostly isn’t in that position.

The social planners also like those mixed use properties, too. As a concept it sounds cool but in practice the only work in a few of the trendiest places. And for the most part San Diego is a 20th Century town. Even back east, the typical pattern is to start out near all the entertainment and nightlife when you’re young and move out to the ‘burbs when you have kids.

Those units will all eventually get sold or rented. Whether they’re be in short enough supply relative to the effective demand to cause price increases any time soon is debatable. It’s definitely not a sure thing at this point.

It might work if the environmentalists can get gasoline up to $10/gallon. Other than that, I’m skeptical.

[EconProf]

Time lags largely explain why they are still building condos downtown. Before building started, they had to spend years doing feasibility studies, market analysis, design and planning of the building, working through San Diego’s onerous Development Services Department, gaining control of existing properties & vacating them, etc.
Only then could they start building.
So the investors and their lenders commited themselves and began spending big bucks years ago, just at the top of the market. You can be sure they are losing plenty of sleep now about their decisions.
As to what will happen to these buildings now in the pipeline? My guess is government-owned public housing. The San Diego Housing Commission will own them. The latter has done some building and rehab of existing buildings on its own–all at mind-blowing cost on a per unit basis. The recent bailout bill includes new funding for this. With the values falling inexorably of downtown condos, combined with a rising cost of government to build anything, pretty soon two lines will cross on a graph.

[EconProf]

Time lags largely explain why they are still building condos downtown. Before building started, they had to spend years doing feasibility studies, market analysis, design and planning of the building, working through San Diego’s onerous Development Services Department, gaining control of existing properties & vacating them, etc.
Only then could they start building.
So the investors and their lenders commited themselves and began spending big bucks years ago, just at the top of the market. You can be sure they are losing plenty of sleep now about their decisions.
As to what will happen to these buildings now in the pipeline? My guess is government-owned public housing. The San Diego Housing Commission will own them. The latter has done some building and rehab of existing buildings on its own–all at mind-blowing cost on a per unit basis. The recent bailout bill includes new funding for this. With the values falling inexorably of downtown condos, combined with a rising cost of government to build anything, pretty soon two lines will cross on a graph.

[EconProf]

Time lags largely explain why they are still building condos downtown. Before building started, they had to spend years doing feasibility studies, market analysis, design and planning of the building, working through San Diego’s onerous Development Services Department, gaining control of existing properties & vacating them, etc.
Only then could they start building.
So the investors and their lenders commited themselves and began spending big bucks years ago, just at the top of the market. You can be sure they are losing plenty of sleep now about their decisions.
As to what will happen to these buildings now in the pipeline? My guess is government-owned public housing. The San Diego Housing Commission will own them. The latter has done some building and rehab of existing buildings on its own–all at mind-blowing cost on a per unit basis. The recent bailout bill includes new funding for this. With the values falling inexorably of downtown condos, combined with a rising cost of government to build anything, pretty soon two lines will cross on a graph.

[EconProf]

Time lags largely explain why they are still building condos downtown. Before building started, they had to spend years doing feasibility studies, market analysis, design and planning of the building, working through San Diego’s onerous Development Services Department, gaining control of existing properties & vacating them, etc.
Only then could they start building.
So the investors and their lenders commited themselves and began spending big bucks years ago, just at the top of the market. You can be sure they are losing plenty of sleep now about their decisions.
As to what will happen to these buildings now in the pipeline? My guess is government-owned public housing. The San Diego Housing Commission will own them. The latter has done some building and rehab of existing buildings on its own–all at mind-blowing cost on a per unit basis. The recent bailout bill includes new funding for this. With the values falling inexorably of downtown condos, combined with a rising cost of government to build anything, pretty soon two lines will cross on a graph.

[EconProf]

Time lags largely explain why they are still building condos downtown. Before building started, they had to spend years doing feasibility studies, market analysis, design and planning of the building, working through San Diego’s onerous Development Services Department, gaining control of existing properties & vacating them, etc.
Only then could they start building.
So the investors and their lenders commited themselves and began spending big bucks years ago, just at the top of the market. You can be sure they are losing plenty of sleep now about their decisions.
As to what will happen to these buildings now in the pipeline? My guess is government-owned public housing. The San Diego Housing Commission will own them. The latter has done some building and rehab of existing buildings on its own–all at mind-blowing cost on a per unit basis. The recent bailout bill includes new funding for this. With the values falling inexorably of downtown condos, combined with a rising cost of government to build anything, pretty soon two lines will cross on a graph.

[Raybyrnes]

Real Estate downtown is on a Kinked Supply curve. Anticipate a glut of inventory.

City planners in san Diego blew years ago with the creation of Sorrento Valley.

Was also a great idea to put a free way right over a river bed that could have been used to create residential riverfront property.

[Raybyrnes]

Real Estate downtown is on a Kinked Supply curve. Anticipate a glut of inventory.

City planners in san Diego blew years ago with the creation of Sorrento Valley.

Was also a great idea to put a free way right over a river bed that could have been used to create residential riverfront property.

[Raybyrnes]

Real Estate downtown is on a Kinked Supply curve. Anticipate a glut of inventory.

City planners in san Diego blew years ago with the creation of Sorrento Valley.

Was also a great idea to put a free way right over a river bed that could have been used to create residential riverfront property.

[Raybyrnes]

Real Estate downtown is on a Kinked Supply curve. Anticipate a glut of inventory.

City planners in san Diego blew years ago with the creation of Sorrento Valley.

Was also a great idea to put a free way right over a river bed that could have been used to create residential riverfront property.

[Raybyrnes]

Real Estate downtown is on a Kinked Supply curve. Anticipate a glut of inventory.

City planners in san Diego blew years ago with the creation of Sorrento Valley.

Was also a great idea to put a free way right over a river bed that could have been used to create residential riverfront property.

[cv2]

Thanks all of you for those insightful thoughts!

[cv2]

Thanks all of you for those insightful thoughts!

[cv2]

Thanks all of you for those insightful thoughts!

[cv2]

Thanks all of you for those insightful thoughts!

[Author]

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