Some metrics, while interesting, are actually lagging and thus not useful as predictors. They tell us where we have been. Some examples: consumer confidence, unemployment, and foreclosure.
Here are two articles I wrote on the topic.
In my MBA program, I did a Home Median Sales Price Regression Analysis (December 1990). I found that the median sales price in Phoenix, AZ was affected by unemployment, housing permits, and sales. Foreclosures and population were not significant variables.
Nonetheless, rising foreclosures do verify what the subprime lenders are already feeling: homeowners under distress.
To someone like me, I’ll take any indicators I can get!
I really appreciate the Foreclosure data that JG provides and the Short Sale Monitor info that sdrealtor provides.
To someone sitting on the sidelines waiting for realesate to adjust downwards, its helpful to see current indicators and to contrast them with ones from prior corrections.
More specifically, for someone with patience, tracking the level of foreclosures/short sales for some time and looking for potential inflection points seems to be time well spent. Since I don’t plan to rush out and buy property any time soon, I can wait for the lagging indicators to setting out and hopefully help me an others to make more sound buying guesses. Said differently, for those with long purchase cycles, its less of a lagging indicator than it is a current indicator.
I had a look at your website PS. Good luck with it. I’ll have a peak periodically for new articles.
So now that we are starting to see rapid increases in NODs and foreclosures, we should begin to see even greater price reductions by say the end of summer, right?
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