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an.
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January 30, 2012 at 11:45 AM #736958January 30, 2012 at 11:55 AM #736961
markmax33
Guest[quote=sdrealtor]I said it back in 07 and I will say it again. The only way out of this all is time and inflation. The bubble was big so it will take alot of time and a bunch of inflation which will come slowly. Prices down, interest rates down and rents up are slowly addressing this all.
[/quote]
What proof do you have that inflation is the only way out? We are both well aware that the plan is to do that. You seem to think the market won’t find a way to act violently and destroy the price fixing, as markets like to do? The bubble is really big as you said, lots of really unexpected things can occur.[quote=sdrealtor]
I see it in my own community. It seems like prices have fallen about $50K in the last 6 months and rents have risen $300 to 500 in the last 12 months around here. Its absolutely nuts out there again. Two years ago I had two people very close to me come for advice on rentals. I found them great houses owned by long term owners at below market rents and encouraged them to sign multi year leases with options. Both listened and now have great places to live that would rent at least $700 more per month today. They pay the rent a week early every month and take care of everything they can so the owners never think twice about changing the terms. They are literally paying close to $10,000 per year below market rent.
[/quote]Rents haven’t risen. There is a ton of under-utilized supply distorting the market. It won’t last. I think we have a net population loss in San Diego county anyway, and I’m sure we have a population loss if you consider white collar jobs that can afford houses in your community.
[quote=sdrealtor]
And the PTB are winning whether you want to admit it or not. Its is working. Its going to take alot more time but in the end they will win because “the house makes the rules”. Go to Vegas and prove otherwise if you like.[/quote]
Your quote makes no economic sense. The market is Vegas and sets the rules, not GOV/Fed. They can be crushed in a heartbeat.
January 30, 2012 at 12:21 PM #736963SD Realtor
ParticipantIt is very simple and easy to argue. You have stated you see a crash coming at the end of the year. I have said no crash unless interest rates go up because the govt has complied with Wall Street and will use every last dollar of tax revenue available to prop up the market.
Lets check in at the end of the year and see who is correct. You have not stated what will crash the market.
Let me know what you believe will crash the market.
I also assume that you will not buy a home until the market crashes.
Care to make a wager that the loser will not post again?
January 30, 2012 at 12:25 PM #736964sdrealtor
ParticipantI have no proof just firm beliefs as to how it would, will and has gone down. Feel free to keep betting on a losing horse because I’ve had the win, place and show all along.
Unmanipulated markets behave differently than manipulated markets. As long as they can continue with the manipulation they can control the unexpected events from happening. You dont think they can keep it up. I always beleived they could. Whose been right so far?
Rents havent risen? Go out shopping for an SFR in a nice part of SD and tell me that again. Until then you are babbling incoherently because I have seen numerous cases to the contrary.
Net population loss?? Loss of white collar jobs that can afford houses? You are sure of this? Where is your data coming from because everything I see published tells the opposite.
Try this one on for size
My quote makes all the sense in the world because this is a high stakes casino not a free market anymore. The GOV is the house now and they wont lose. Keep placing those losing bets if you like.
January 30, 2012 at 1:06 PM #736973scaredyclassic
ParticipantI kind of relate to markmax because I kind of felt the same way.
Mark, I think what you need to do is take your thinking cap off.
The scenario is much more rigged and weird than we can imagine.
I would take the blue pill.
January 30, 2012 at 1:17 PM #736974ParticipantChugging red pills is bad for yr financial health
January 30, 2012 at 1:45 PM #736976The-Shoveler
ParticipantIn absents of a major event (Iran, Europe etc…) sdr and “SD R” are right.
The average underwater home owner in SoCal is down 90~100K, There is no way in heck there will ever be a true economic recovery when that is even close to being the case. The PTB know this.
But I get all kinds of conflicting indicators as well, the GSE betting against the home owners is just one of them (I said it before and I will say it again, for some reason the PTB want it the way it is, otherwise they would have come up with a resolution a long time ago.
If it was easier to get a mortgage, at least in the low end area’s this downturn would have been history a long time ago,I took the red pill.
January 30, 2012 at 2:11 PM #736982Guest[quote=SD Realtor]It is very simple and easy to argue. You have stated you see a crash coming at the end of the year. I have said no crash unless interest rates go up because the govt has complied with Wall Street and will use every last dollar of tax revenue available to prop up the market.
Lets check in at the end of the year and see who is correct. You have not stated what will crash the market.
Let me know what you believe will crash the market.
I also assume that you will not buy a home until the market crashes.
Care to make a wager that the loser will not post again?[/quote]
I said a crash is ~likely~ at the end of the year right about or after the election. That’s just how history pans out. I didn’t specify the kind of crash or exactly what would happen. I do think there is a high likely hood something hits the market(s) pretty hard. I’m not making a bet on it. No economist in his right mind gives timefarmes. There is too much tinkering behind the scenes that we don’t have access to. It is much easier to point out he inbalances and check to see if they were fact later.
January 30, 2012 at 2:15 PM #736983ParticipantMy dad believed housing was going to crash super hard in the 80s and died before the bubble burst.
January 30, 2012 at 2:24 PM #736985Guest[quote=sdrealtor]I have no proof just firm beliefs as to how it would, will and has gone down. Feel free to keep betting on a losing horse because I’ve had the win, place and show all along.
Unmanipulated markets behave differently than manipulated markets. As long as they can continue with the manipulation they can control the unexpected events from happening. You dont think they can keep it up. I always beleived they could. Whose been right so far?
Rents havent risen? Go out shopping for an SFR in a nice part of SD and tell me that again. Until then you are babbling incoherently because I have seen numerous cases to the contrary.
Net population loss?? Loss of white collar jobs that can afford houses? You are sure of this? Where is your data coming from because everything I see published tells the opposite.
Try this one on for size
My quote makes all the sense in the world because this is a high stakes casino not a free market anymore. The GOV is the house now and they wont lose. Keep placing those losing bets if you like.[/quote]
Okay so we are still well below the peak year and probably below the 10 year moving average. Find the median income per household and see where that is too.
I see major business leaving SD, starting with the biggest employer the Navy, having a major budget decrease this year. In late 2011 there was a large increase of Navy spending in the Region. I hear of small businesses exiting the state all the time.
[quote=sdrealtor]
Unmanipulated markets behave differently than manipulated markets. As long as they can continue with the manipulation they can control the unexpected events from happening. You dont think they can keep it up. I always beleived they could. Whose been right so far?
[/quote]I’m trying to refrain from using the LOL here. Manipulated markets don’t crash and the Fed/GOV can control the outcomes? Hello? How did we get here to begin with? Who enabled all of this and said there was no bubble? Hello? Your theory has NEVER held true. This same crap is what Greenspan said before the end of the tech bubble and housing bubble. The market always adjusts violently in an unforseen mannner.
The exact opposite is true. An unmanipulated market acts very predictably. Econ 101 – Supply and Demand.
January 30, 2012 at 2:26 PM #736987Guest[quote=walterwhite]My dad believed housing was going to crash super hard in the 80s and died before the bubble burst.[/quote]
I see his son learned from his advice. I’m glad it didn’t go to waste!
January 30, 2012 at 2:38 PM #736988bearishgurl
Participant[quote=SD Realtor]It is very simple and easy to argue. You have stated you see a crash coming at the end of the year. I have said no crash unless interest rates go up because the govt has complied with Wall Street and will use every last dollar of tax revenue available to prop up the market…[/quote]
SDR, I myself do not profess to know what will happen but am cognizant of the many “squatters” and “rent-collectors” whose NOD(s) are well over a year old (some pushing 2 yrs). I have no doubt that thousands more have had an NOS rescinded (due to workout/mod) only to have a new NOS filed on the same property within weeks/months. Earlier in this thread you stated, in part:
[quote=SD Realtor on January 30, 2012 – 7:56 am.]…What I can say is that the train has left the station and the govt has been and will continue to be complicit with Wall Street in manipulating the real estate market all done with insurance for the overvalued assets provided to investors at taxpayer expense. So in reality the programs are doing exactly what they were intended to do. The programs stumble and bumble along and the govt has to keep throwing more and more money and incentives to investors and servicers to get them to use the programs…[/quote]
How can ALL these delinquent home-debtors, (which markmax refers to as “empty houses”) become suddenly “eligible” for a principal reduction? Are they going to sell their late-model luxury vehicles they have sitting in the driveway (purchased with “home equity,” lol) to help settle their (ATM-induced) shortfall as a condition of their new “HAMP” mod/principal reductions??
You know as well as I do that a very large portion of them have ALL recourse loans as well as MORE THAN ONE trust deed currently filed against their delinquent propert(ies).
I saw the proposed “GOV reimbursement figures,” but why do you think the bulk of these institutional lenders and private investors would forgive, in some cases, hundreds of thousands of dollars owed to them and allow a “home-debtor” to keep all the assets they purchased with their “home equity?”
I just don’t see that constellation. This is the function of the BK court.
In all practicality, I see perhaps some “millenium boom” buyers qualifying for a principal-reduction HAMP under this plan on their purchase money mtgs (or non-cash out refis).
The ATM’ers are a different breed entirely.
January 30, 2012 at 3:00 PM #736990ParticipantThe real LOL here is that MarkMax made an inference he was actually an Economist.
You can see whatever you like as well but the data tells adifferent story on job/population growth. As for incomes, you can talk all the medians you want. We spent a long time at the birth of this blog explaining how medians are almost useless in analyzing what is really going on at the street level. I see tax returns all the time for ordinary folks making extraordinary incomes that smash any thing related to medians. You do know that those with higher incomes are most likely to underreport their income? Dont you?
bTW, you didnt refrain you did LOL. I didnt say they dont crash. I said they behaved differently which is not a point you can argue or LOL. They have controlled much of this already. They havent stopped a decline but they have limited it and impacted the timing in a way only an idiot would try to say didnt happen. And who cares what they said about the existence of a bubble. They knew it and we know they knew it. Creating it is just another example of how they can manipulate and control things. Dont you see that side of things?
As for the corrections, I would think we’ll all agree that the tech and houing bubble corrections were far from unforeseen.
FWIW, my retirement portfolio hasnt had a down year in over a decade. Dont think I didnt see this all coming and position myself properly? How did your investments do over the past 10 years?
January 30, 2012 at 3:02 PM #736991Anonymous
Guest[quote=markmax33]I see major business leaving SD, starting with the biggest employer the Navy, having a major budget decrease this year.[/quote]
You just keep on makin’ shit up!
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January 30, 2012 at 3:04 PM #736992Guest[quote=markmax33][quote=sdrealtor]How did we get here to begin with? [/quote]
How did we get here?
You mean how did we become the largest economy the world has ever known?
I wasn’t by following Ron Paul’s ideas, that’s for sure.
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