For the foreclosure tsunami crowd….

[SD Realtor]

markmax as usual you are missing the point. Your perspective on whether the programs are failures or not is jaded. The object of these programs was simply to kick the can down the road all at taxpayer expense. In that sense, these programs are doing just what they are intended to do. That is what Wall Street wanted all along and that is what Wall Street knew the govt would do. So to call these programs a failure is incorrect. The result is a horrible manipulated market where assets are not sold at the correct value. It is a long running manipulated fraudulent market where all the risk is taxpayer funded and all the reward goes to Wall Street.

What we all know is that as bubbles inflate and then pop, the larger the market that the bubble is in, the more peripheral damage is done when the bubble pops. We went from an equities bubble to a real estate bubble. The equities bubble popped and that hurt… then the real estate bubble popped and that hurt more…. really bad… now we have the bond market bubble… when that pops it will be even worse. I know that and you know that… and anyone buying a home should know that…

However when will that happen? Nobody knows that. What I can say is that the train has left the station and the govt has been and will continue to be complicit with Wall Street in manipulating the real estate market all done with insurance for the overvalued assets provided to investors at taxpayer expense. So in reality the programs are doing exactly what they were intended to do. The programs stumble and bumble along and the govt has to keep throwing more and more money and incentives to investors and servicers to get them to use the programs.

If you believe that the bond market will crash in the near future, there is no reason to buy a home. If you think the market will be flooded with reo properties (like it should have been and should presently be if the market was not so fundamentally manipulated) and you will see substantial price drops because you think the real estate market is a free market… then you are incorrect.

[scaredyclassic]

And after interest rates rise your monthly payment will be the same as it was when the house was twice as much.

We are too small to win.

[Anonymous]

[quote=SD Realtor]Your perspective on whether the programs are failures or not is jaded. The object of these programs was simply to kick the can down the road all at taxpayer expense.[/quote]

There’s quite a bit of irony in those two sentences.

[desmond]

The “tusnami of foreclosures” crowd has not been around for years. Are there historical high amounts of foreclosures? Are foreclosures a problem in the health of the housing market? If you answer no, then why all the government programs?

[SD Realtor]

Desmond they have been here since 06.

Of course the answers are all no. In a free market the asset valuations are a simply function of supply and demand.

Wake up dude… it is not about the real estate market it is about the securities and homes are the assets. Those valuations need to be maintained because of the choices made in 2008. Look back to the early 90s and the RTC. Liquidation of assets was the correct way to deal with the problem. Now look to 2008. Liquidation did not occur. My god it is not that hard to understand.

The govt programs are in place because the govt has no choice. When the moment of truth came back in 2008 for the govt to let the institutions all sink, the govt blinked. They chose NOT to let them sink.

If you have ever read my posts I was all in favor of letting it all go to hell, let them sink, let the market reflect the true asset values and let it start fresh. Plenty of other posters cite that what the govt did was the best move because it was the only move. Frankly I call bullshit to that but that doesn’t really matter now does it.

All the govt programs are in place because that is the only way to perpetuate the essential fraudulent asset valuations by market manipulation. So in essence those programs have been perpetuating that fraud so yes they are working.

[markmax33]

[quote=SD Realtor]markmax as usual you are missing the point. Your perspective on whether the programs are failures or not is jaded. The object of these programs was simply to kick the can down the road all at taxpayer expense. In that sense, these programs are doing just what they are intended to do. [/quote]

No you don’t get my point! They are trying to kick the can down the road and isn’t working anything like they are projecting. They are grasping at straws. The market it is going to crack back on them hard someday sooner than later. They will keep grasping at straws and the next crash will probably occur towards the end of the year if history repeats itself. The market eventually wins, it always does.

[SD Realtor]

Jeez markmax of course the market will crack back.

The only crack back will come because of interest rates, not because of inventory growth due to foreclosures.

Once interest rates move, then it will crack back and hard. In the absence of interest rate movement, no the market will not crash.

You tell me then, in the absence of interest rate hikes, you tell me how the market will crash.

[markmax33]

[quote=SD Realtor]Desmond they have been here since 06.

Of course the answers are all no. In a free market the asset valuations are a simply function of supply and demand.

Wake up dude… it is not about the real estate market it is about the securities and homes are the assets. Those valuations need to be maintained because of the choices made in 2008. Look back to the early 90s and the RTC. Liquidation of assets was the correct way to deal with the problem. Now look to 2008. Liquidation did not occur. My god it is not that hard to understand.
[/quote]

SD Realtor – What basis do you have to say that an RTC like setup won’t occur again? You seem to think we are past that point and have eliminated from your list of projected outcomes. I really don’t get that concept. I’m sure they thought an RTC would never occur back in the late 1990s too. I bet there were Realtors projecting that too.

[desmond]

Thanks, you agreed with me just in a whacked out way.

[markmax33]

[quote=SD Realtor]Jeez markmax of course the market will crack back.

The only crack back will come because of interest rates, not because of inventory growth due to foreclosures.

Once interest rates move, then it will crack back and hard. In the absence of interest rate movement, no the market will not crash.

You tell me then, in the absence of interest rate hikes, you tell me how the market will crash.[/quote]

The banks finally realize that no amount of GOV incentives or inflation is going to work and they are losing too much with the empty homes on their books and they actually decide it is cost effective to dump them. Once one bank decides that’s the smart idea, the rest will all follow nearly instantaniously. That is one way in which a tsunami could begin. They will race to the bottom.

[SD Realtor]

No there has not been any elimination of outcomes.

My god man read any of my posts… What the hell is wrong with you. I have said time and time and time again that interest rates will drive the next depreciation cycle. Where have I ever said otherwise?

What do you not understand? What outcome has been eliminated?

[sdrealtor]

All the empty houses? Where do you live? I see very few empty houses. Thats not to say there arent a bunch of occupied houses with non paying owners but at least in SD county there arent alot of empty houses here.

[markmax33]

[quote=SD Realtor]No there has not been any elimination of outcomes.

My god man read any of my posts… What the hell is wrong with you. I have said time and time and time again that interest rates will drive the next depreciation cycle. Where have I ever said otherwise?

What do you not understand? What outcome has been eliminated?

“Look back to the early 90s and the RTC. Liquidation of assets was the correct way to deal with the problem. Now look to 2008. Liquidation did not occur.”

[/quote]

Interest rates don’t have to drive the next cycle. What don’t you get? The “bailouts” fail and the market self corrects without interest rate increases.

Your posts specifically infer that an RTC can’t be setup again. You have said it 3 or 4 times I can remember. You spoke about the opprotunity of an RTC like deal in the past tense.

[sdrealtor]

I said it back in 07 and I will say it again. The only way out of this all is time and inflation. The bubble was big so it will take alot of time and a bunch of inflation which will come slowly. Prices down, interest rates down and rents up are slowly addressing this all. I see it in my own community. It seems like prices have fallen about $50K in the last 6 months and rents have risen $300 to 500 in the last 12 months around here. Its absolutely nuts out there again. Two years ago I had two people very close to me come for advice on rentals. I found them great houses owned by long term owners at below market rents and encouraged them to sign multi year leases with options. Both listened and now have great places to live that would rent at least $700 more per month today. They pay the rent a week early every month and take care of everything they can so the owners never think twice about changing the terms. They are literally paying close to $10,000 per year below market rent.

And the PTB are winning whether you want to admit it or not. Its is working. Its going to take alot more time but in the end they will win because “the house makes the rules”. Go to Vegas and prove otherwise if you like.

[markmax33]

[quote=sdrealtor]All the empty houses? Where do you live? I see very few empty houses. Thats not to say there arent a bunch of occupied houses with non paying owners but at least in SD county there arent alot of empty houses here.[/quote]

Stop with the semantics. Empty houses includes houses with people living in them. In terms of the housing market, “empty houses” are homes that are not paying the mortgage. The people in there really have nothing to do with the carrying cost for banks on a non-performing loan.

[Author]

Posts