Fannie and Freddie: Hopelessly unproductive works

[sreeb]

Elsewhere, I have read that only 1 trillion of the 5 represents bubble loans so most of their loans still have collateral. Given that, a trillion as a worst case doesn’t seem unreasonable.

[Arraya]

[quote=davelj]
If energy prices are going to plummet… then what will be the cause of the collapse? (I apologize that I’m too lazy to read her entire thesis, as compelling as it might be. Most of the apocalyptos link the downfall of civilization to rising energy prices with all that implies.)[/quote]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years.

[quote]
I doubt she was “highly paid” at the Agri-Energy Producers’ Association of Ontario. Their most recent conference had 80 attendees (mostly farmers), if memory serves from my brief readings. I doubt the Association has more than a few employees. Not that that should have any bearing on the quality of her argument… I’m just sayin’.
[/quote]

“highly paid” was a poor choice of words, well-paid is more like it. And well paid is relative to industry

[quote]
I think Ms. Foss is a dedicated environmentalist, not materially different from folks that work for the Sierra Club and other such outfits. Her worldview is set (she’s “all-in,” so to speak) and not subject to change. All of which is fine.

But her background is relevant when discussing the biases inherent in her point of view, just as anyone’s is. That’s my point. I wish her the best in Peru. I’ve never been there but I have a friend who has a home there. He tells me it’s quite lovely.[/quote]

Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo!

I agree, though, everybody is biased to an extent. Some, so much so, they can’t see what is in front of their face and disregard all data that does not fit. Kind of like creationists(bankers) with fossils(Physical limitations)– suddenly it becomes conspiracy of the devil(environmentalists-socialists) to trick people, rather than just good evidence.

Perception is not reality

[Arraya]

[quote=davelj]
If energy prices are going to plummet… then what will be the cause of the collapse? (I apologize that I’m too lazy to read her entire thesis, as compelling as it might be. Most of the apocalyptos link the downfall of civilization to rising energy prices with all that implies.)[/quote]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years.

[quote]
I doubt she was “highly paid” at the Agri-Energy Producers’ Association of Ontario. Their most recent conference had 80 attendees (mostly farmers), if memory serves from my brief readings. I doubt the Association has more than a few employees. Not that that should have any bearing on the quality of her argument… I’m just sayin’.
[/quote]

“highly paid” was a poor choice of words, well-paid is more like it. And well paid is relative to industry

[quote]
I think Ms. Foss is a dedicated environmentalist, not materially different from folks that work for the Sierra Club and other such outfits. Her worldview is set (she’s “all-in,” so to speak) and not subject to change. All of which is fine.

But her background is relevant when discussing the biases inherent in her point of view, just as anyone’s is. That’s my point. I wish her the best in Peru. I’ve never been there but I have a friend who has a home there. He tells me it’s quite lovely.[/quote]

Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo!

I agree, though, everybody is biased to an extent. Some, so much so, they can’t see what is in front of their face and disregard all data that does not fit. Kind of like creationists(bankers) with fossils(Physical limitations)– suddenly it becomes conspiracy of the devil(environmentalists-socialists) to trick people, rather than just good evidence.

Perception is not reality

[Arraya]

[quote=davelj]
If energy prices are going to plummet… then what will be the cause of the collapse? (I apologize that I’m too lazy to read her entire thesis, as compelling as it might be. Most of the apocalyptos link the downfall of civilization to rising energy prices with all that implies.)[/quote]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years.

[quote]
I doubt she was “highly paid” at the Agri-Energy Producers’ Association of Ontario. Their most recent conference had 80 attendees (mostly farmers), if memory serves from my brief readings. I doubt the Association has more than a few employees. Not that that should have any bearing on the quality of her argument… I’m just sayin’.
[/quote]

“highly paid” was a poor choice of words, well-paid is more like it. And well paid is relative to industry

[quote]
I think Ms. Foss is a dedicated environmentalist, not materially different from folks that work for the Sierra Club and other such outfits. Her worldview is set (she’s “all-in,” so to speak) and not subject to change. All of which is fine.

But her background is relevant when discussing the biases inherent in her point of view, just as anyone’s is. That’s my point. I wish her the best in Peru. I’ve never been there but I have a friend who has a home there. He tells me it’s quite lovely.[/quote]

Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo!

I agree, though, everybody is biased to an extent. Some, so much so, they can’t see what is in front of their face and disregard all data that does not fit. Kind of like creationists(bankers) with fossils(Physical limitations)– suddenly it becomes conspiracy of the devil(environmentalists-socialists) to trick people, rather than just good evidence.

Perception is not reality

[Arraya]

[quote=davelj]
If energy prices are going to plummet… then what will be the cause of the collapse? (I apologize that I’m too lazy to read her entire thesis, as compelling as it might be. Most of the apocalyptos link the downfall of civilization to rising energy prices with all that implies.)[/quote]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years.

[quote]
I doubt she was “highly paid” at the Agri-Energy Producers’ Association of Ontario. Their most recent conference had 80 attendees (mostly farmers), if memory serves from my brief readings. I doubt the Association has more than a few employees. Not that that should have any bearing on the quality of her argument… I’m just sayin’.
[/quote]

“highly paid” was a poor choice of words, well-paid is more like it. And well paid is relative to industry

[quote]
I think Ms. Foss is a dedicated environmentalist, not materially different from folks that work for the Sierra Club and other such outfits. Her worldview is set (she’s “all-in,” so to speak) and not subject to change. All of which is fine.

But her background is relevant when discussing the biases inherent in her point of view, just as anyone’s is. That’s my point. I wish her the best in Peru. I’ve never been there but I have a friend who has a home there. He tells me it’s quite lovely.[/quote]

Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo!

I agree, though, everybody is biased to an extent. Some, so much so, they can’t see what is in front of their face and disregard all data that does not fit. Kind of like creationists(bankers) with fossils(Physical limitations)– suddenly it becomes conspiracy of the devil(environmentalists-socialists) to trick people, rather than just good evidence.

Perception is not reality

[Arraya]

[quote=davelj]
If energy prices are going to plummet… then what will be the cause of the collapse? (I apologize that I’m too lazy to read her entire thesis, as compelling as it might be. Most of the apocalyptos link the downfall of civilization to rising energy prices with all that implies.)[/quote]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years.

[quote]
I doubt she was “highly paid” at the Agri-Energy Producers’ Association of Ontario. Their most recent conference had 80 attendees (mostly farmers), if memory serves from my brief readings. I doubt the Association has more than a few employees. Not that that should have any bearing on the quality of her argument… I’m just sayin’.
[/quote]

“highly paid” was a poor choice of words, well-paid is more like it. And well paid is relative to industry

[quote]
I think Ms. Foss is a dedicated environmentalist, not materially different from folks that work for the Sierra Club and other such outfits. Her worldview is set (she’s “all-in,” so to speak) and not subject to change. All of which is fine.

But her background is relevant when discussing the biases inherent in her point of view, just as anyone’s is. That’s my point. I wish her the best in Peru. I’ve never been there but I have a friend who has a home there. He tells me it’s quite lovely.[/quote]

Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo!

I agree, though, everybody is biased to an extent. Some, so much so, they can’t see what is in front of their face and disregard all data that does not fit. Kind of like creationists(bankers) with fossils(Physical limitations)– suddenly it becomes conspiracy of the devil(environmentalists-socialists) to trick people, rather than just good evidence.

Perception is not reality

[davelj]

[quote=Arraya]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years. [/quote]

Ah, gotcha. So I don’t have to sell my SUV if oil prices are coming down. And, bonus – I’ll be able to haul firewood for heat during the depression. First a massive DEflation, then a massive INflation, then a depression (I presume to be followed by social unrest and famine)… I’m just glad somebody knows how this is all going to turn out.

Or is this like Paul Ehrlich (of “The Population Bomb” fame), who made all sorts of widely-accepted (by environmentalists, anyway) claims during the ’60s about a dystopic future resulting from population growth, including a global famine that would result in half the global population dying of starvation and average human life expectancy dropping to 40 years old by the year 2000? He got just about everything completely wrong in terms of effects, but I give the guy credit… he did pick a specific time frame.

Well, as attributed to Yogi Berra, “Predictions are tough; especially about the future.” But I digress…

[quote=Arraya]
Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo![/quote]

Fair point. I shouldn’t have brought up her livelihood (although I didn’t suggest she was a “money grubber” – those are your words) because most hard core environmentalists are True Believers – that is, they’re not in it for the money. For example, while Al Gore has made untold millions off of his environmental beliefs, I think that’s largely an accident, not some grand design of his (I could be wrong). But like Al Gore (and many others), Ms. Foss’ views will never be altered by any facts presented that are contrary to what she already believes – she’s married to her views ’til death do they part.

[quote=Arraya]
Perception is not reality[/quote]

Is that for your benefit or mine? Or is it that only YOUR reality is the *true* reality while the rest of us are merely perceiving some larger lie? That last question is rhetorical – I know that in your eyes the answer is, “Yes, exactly.”

[davelj]

[quote=Arraya]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years. [/quote]

Ah, gotcha. So I don’t have to sell my SUV if oil prices are coming down. And, bonus – I’ll be able to haul firewood for heat during the depression. First a massive DEflation, then a massive INflation, then a depression (I presume to be followed by social unrest and famine)… I’m just glad somebody knows how this is all going to turn out.

Or is this like Paul Ehrlich (of “The Population Bomb” fame), who made all sorts of widely-accepted (by environmentalists, anyway) claims during the ’60s about a dystopic future resulting from population growth, including a global famine that would result in half the global population dying of starvation and average human life expectancy dropping to 40 years old by the year 2000? He got just about everything completely wrong in terms of effects, but I give the guy credit… he did pick a specific time frame.

Well, as attributed to Yogi Berra, “Predictions are tough; especially about the future.” But I digress…

[quote=Arraya]
Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo![/quote]

Fair point. I shouldn’t have brought up her livelihood (although I didn’t suggest she was a “money grubber” – those are your words) because most hard core environmentalists are True Believers – that is, they’re not in it for the money. For example, while Al Gore has made untold millions off of his environmental beliefs, I think that’s largely an accident, not some grand design of his (I could be wrong). But like Al Gore (and many others), Ms. Foss’ views will never be altered by any facts presented that are contrary to what she already believes – she’s married to her views ’til death do they part.

[quote=Arraya]
Perception is not reality[/quote]

Is that for your benefit or mine? Or is it that only YOUR reality is the *true* reality while the rest of us are merely perceiving some larger lie? That last question is rhetorical – I know that in your eyes the answer is, “Yes, exactly.”

[davelj]

[quote=Arraya]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years. [/quote]

Ah, gotcha. So I don’t have to sell my SUV if oil prices are coming down. And, bonus – I’ll be able to haul firewood for heat during the depression. First a massive DEflation, then a massive INflation, then a depression (I presume to be followed by social unrest and famine)… I’m just glad somebody knows how this is all going to turn out.

Or is this like Paul Ehrlich (of “The Population Bomb” fame), who made all sorts of widely-accepted (by environmentalists, anyway) claims during the ’60s about a dystopic future resulting from population growth, including a global famine that would result in half the global population dying of starvation and average human life expectancy dropping to 40 years old by the year 2000? He got just about everything completely wrong in terms of effects, but I give the guy credit… he did pick a specific time frame.

Well, as attributed to Yogi Berra, “Predictions are tough; especially about the future.” But I digress…

[quote=Arraya]
Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo![/quote]

Fair point. I shouldn’t have brought up her livelihood (although I didn’t suggest she was a “money grubber” – those are your words) because most hard core environmentalists are True Believers – that is, they’re not in it for the money. For example, while Al Gore has made untold millions off of his environmental beliefs, I think that’s largely an accident, not some grand design of his (I could be wrong). But like Al Gore (and many others), Ms. Foss’ views will never be altered by any facts presented that are contrary to what she already believes – she’s married to her views ’til death do they part.

[quote=Arraya]
Perception is not reality[/quote]

Is that for your benefit or mine? Or is it that only YOUR reality is the *true* reality while the rest of us are merely perceiving some larger lie? That last question is rhetorical – I know that in your eyes the answer is, “Yes, exactly.”

[davelj]

[quote=Arraya]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years. [/quote]

Ah, gotcha. So I don’t have to sell my SUV if oil prices are coming down. And, bonus – I’ll be able to haul firewood for heat during the depression. First a massive DEflation, then a massive INflation, then a depression (I presume to be followed by social unrest and famine)… I’m just glad somebody knows how this is all going to turn out.

Or is this like Paul Ehrlich (of “The Population Bomb” fame), who made all sorts of widely-accepted (by environmentalists, anyway) claims during the ’60s about a dystopic future resulting from population growth, including a global famine that would result in half the global population dying of starvation and average human life expectancy dropping to 40 years old by the year 2000? He got just about everything completely wrong in terms of effects, but I give the guy credit… he did pick a specific time frame.

Well, as attributed to Yogi Berra, “Predictions are tough; especially about the future.” But I digress…

[quote=Arraya]
Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo![/quote]

Fair point. I shouldn’t have brought up her livelihood (although I didn’t suggest she was a “money grubber” – those are your words) because most hard core environmentalists are True Believers – that is, they’re not in it for the money. For example, while Al Gore has made untold millions off of his environmental beliefs, I think that’s largely an accident, not some grand design of his (I could be wrong). But like Al Gore (and many others), Ms. Foss’ views will never be altered by any facts presented that are contrary to what she already believes – she’s married to her views ’til death do they part.

[quote=Arraya]
Perception is not reality[/quote]

Is that for your benefit or mine? Or is it that only YOUR reality is the *true* reality while the rest of us are merely perceiving some larger lie? That last question is rhetorical – I know that in your eyes the answer is, “Yes, exactly.”

[davelj]

[quote=Arraya]

Usually when (10s of) millions of people stop consuming because of job loss it takes strain off of the global commodity markets leading to lower prices, at least for a bit. A depression can be a good temporary mitigation of energy limitations. It does not do too much good when you are following price points to fix these problems, though. It especially is a problem when there needs to be a certain price for exploration. Markets never assess and price in how much is in the tank, it is information they do not process and actually, by default, lie to themselves in a childish, I-refuse-to-see-my-limits, fashion. Oil could spike sometime again in the near future unless we deflate some more. I’m expecting more deflation before the price shots up again, which could be years. [/quote]

Ah, gotcha. So I don’t have to sell my SUV if oil prices are coming down. And, bonus – I’ll be able to haul firewood for heat during the depression. First a massive DEflation, then a massive INflation, then a depression (I presume to be followed by social unrest and famine)… I’m just glad somebody knows how this is all going to turn out.

Or is this like Paul Ehrlich (of “The Population Bomb” fame), who made all sorts of widely-accepted (by environmentalists, anyway) claims during the ’60s about a dystopic future resulting from population growth, including a global famine that would result in half the global population dying of starvation and average human life expectancy dropping to 40 years old by the year 2000? He got just about everything completely wrong in terms of effects, but I give the guy credit… he did pick a specific time frame.

Well, as attributed to Yogi Berra, “Predictions are tough; especially about the future.” But I digress…

[quote=Arraya]
Now, here is typical dave seamlessly shifting rationale. First she was a money- grubbing engineer pedaling her alt-energy systems through fear and then changed to a hard core environmentalist hell-bent on bringing down the global financial structure through blogging to save baby seals. Bravo![/quote]

Fair point. I shouldn’t have brought up her livelihood (although I didn’t suggest she was a “money grubber” – those are your words) because most hard core environmentalists are True Believers – that is, they’re not in it for the money. For example, while Al Gore has made untold millions off of his environmental beliefs, I think that’s largely an accident, not some grand design of his (I could be wrong). But like Al Gore (and many others), Ms. Foss’ views will never be altered by any facts presented that are contrary to what she already believes – she’s married to her views ’til death do they part.

[quote=Arraya]
Perception is not reality[/quote]

Is that for your benefit or mine? Or is it that only YOUR reality is the *true* reality while the rest of us are merely perceiving some larger lie? That last question is rhetorical – I know that in your eyes the answer is, “Yes, exactly.”

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya]http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/06/june-16-2010-fannie-and-freddie.html

As John Stuart Mill observed, “Panics do not destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has already been destroyed by betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.” [/quote]

Great article.

I really loved this quote above — it so exemplifies what we’ve been seeing these past few decades, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya]http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/06/june-16-2010-fannie-and-freddie.html

As John Stuart Mill observed, “Panics do not destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has already been destroyed by betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.” [/quote]

Great article.

I really loved this quote above — it so exemplifies what we’ve been seeing these past few decades, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya]http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/06/june-16-2010-fannie-and-freddie.html

As John Stuart Mill observed, “Panics do not destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has already been destroyed by betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.” [/quote]

Great article.

I really loved this quote above — it so exemplifies what we’ve been seeing these past few decades, IMHO.

[CA renter]

[quote=Arraya]http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2010/06/june-16-2010-fannie-and-freddie.html

As John Stuart Mill observed, “Panics do not destroy capital, they merely reveal the extent to which it has already been destroyed by betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.” [/quote]

Great article.

I really loved this quote above — it so exemplifies what we’ve been seeing these past few decades, IMHO.

[Author]

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