exasperated

[tom]

so, been reading patrick.net and here religiously since August, and think I’m about worn out! Looking in the NP/Univ heights/SP area.. saw prices start to come down just as this “bidding war” and lack of inventory ramped up. I feel like I’m going to need to walk away for a bit before I do something dumb and get involved in a sucker’s rally… the housing market is just utterly malfunctional right now.. My latest brush has been a house in uni heights that was a short sale for $350 in october (one of the 2/1 craftmans that are everywhere).. when I looked, there were 4 people already fighting over it.. so i balked, and it goes off MLS. My gf then drives by per chance in March.. there’s a new sign up. After my realtor calls.. basically, short sale never went (2nd holder wouldn’t play) and is now about to pop up as a REO. I say about, as even though the courthouse step auction was in january and there’s been a real estate sign since then.. it’s still not on MLS. Listing agent says he’s still trying to get lowball ($275k) asking price approved. Agent also told my realtor friday that there’s a list 20 long of interested parties, and 2 offers on the table even though it’s not listed yet. So, anyway.. assuming that turns into a debacle, I think I’m going to need some downtime.

The question is, if I manage to pull myself away, when do people out there think would be a good time to “check back in”.. i.e., when do people think is the next real turning point in this whole mess and what is the evidence that’s going to show this?

The two paths that seem to be in front of us is either:

1) the government intervention / lax mark to market rules, etc.. succeed in slowing things down for a gentle landing, which none of us here want to happen but seems like there has been some evidence of late that it could go that way. And by the time it wears off, inflation could end up being the source of a bottom.

2) or the “bottom drops out” after the spike post-moratorium NOD upticks turn into REOs.

If there are more scenarios out there interested in those.

So, then.. how long would I want to walk away before coming back and learning that we’re on one course or another? Of course, I’m starting to lose hope in any disruptive (in a good way) events being allowed to run their natural course without some kind of intervention being done.

[sdrealtor]

start looking mid september and write your offers in October/November. thats when the best deals will be struck and the least competition will be out there.

good luck

[sdrealtor]

start looking mid september and write your offers in October/November. thats when the best deals will be struck and the least competition will be out there.

good luck

[sdrealtor]

start looking mid september and write your offers in October/November. thats when the best deals will be struck and the least competition will be out there.

good luck

[sdrealtor]

start looking mid september and write your offers in October/November. thats when the best deals will be struck and the least competition will be out there.

good luck

[sdrealtor]

start looking mid september and write your offers in October/November. thats when the best deals will be struck and the least competition will be out there.

good luck

[DWCAP]

3) We follow a trend line that looks speciously like they line from 1991-1997. Spring rallys fizzel into fall declines as the economy just kinda sputters and frets. RE agents bottom call every spring and remain suspeciously silent as fall drops egg’s on faces. Happy talk from government is loud and perminate, as they are obviously big belivers that if everyone thinks itll all be ok, then it will regardless of everything else.

Personally, I am not waiting for a backlog of houses from the banks to magically make things change direction. They obviously have chosen to not take that path anymore. REO will trickel in at a rate that can be managed by the banks and will flow for years to come.

Id wait for two things to happen:
a) interets rates hit 5.75%+
b) October.

[DWCAP]

3) We follow a trend line that looks speciously like they line from 1991-1997. Spring rallys fizzel into fall declines as the economy just kinda sputters and frets. RE agents bottom call every spring and remain suspeciously silent as fall drops egg’s on faces. Happy talk from government is loud and perminate, as they are obviously big belivers that if everyone thinks itll all be ok, then it will regardless of everything else.

Personally, I am not waiting for a backlog of houses from the banks to magically make things change direction. They obviously have chosen to not take that path anymore. REO will trickel in at a rate that can be managed by the banks and will flow for years to come.

Id wait for two things to happen:
a) interets rates hit 5.75%+
b) October.

[DWCAP]

3) We follow a trend line that looks speciously like they line from 1991-1997. Spring rallys fizzel into fall declines as the economy just kinda sputters and frets. RE agents bottom call every spring and remain suspeciously silent as fall drops egg’s on faces. Happy talk from government is loud and perminate, as they are obviously big belivers that if everyone thinks itll all be ok, then it will regardless of everything else.

Personally, I am not waiting for a backlog of houses from the banks to magically make things change direction. They obviously have chosen to not take that path anymore. REO will trickel in at a rate that can be managed by the banks and will flow for years to come.

Id wait for two things to happen:
a) interets rates hit 5.75%+
b) October.

[DWCAP]

3) We follow a trend line that looks speciously like they line from 1991-1997. Spring rallys fizzel into fall declines as the economy just kinda sputters and frets. RE agents bottom call every spring and remain suspeciously silent as fall drops egg’s on faces. Happy talk from government is loud and perminate, as they are obviously big belivers that if everyone thinks itll all be ok, then it will regardless of everything else.

Personally, I am not waiting for a backlog of houses from the banks to magically make things change direction. They obviously have chosen to not take that path anymore. REO will trickel in at a rate that can be managed by the banks and will flow for years to come.

Id wait for two things to happen:
a) interets rates hit 5.75%+
b) October.

[DWCAP]

3) We follow a trend line that looks speciously like they line from 1991-1997. Spring rallys fizzel into fall declines as the economy just kinda sputters and frets. RE agents bottom call every spring and remain suspeciously silent as fall drops egg’s on faces. Happy talk from government is loud and perminate, as they are obviously big belivers that if everyone thinks itll all be ok, then it will regardless of everything else.

Personally, I am not waiting for a backlog of houses from the banks to magically make things change direction. They obviously have chosen to not take that path anymore. REO will trickel in at a rate that can be managed by the banks and will flow for years to come.

Id wait for two things to happen:
a) interets rates hit 5.75%+
b) October.

[blahblahblah]

I’ve stopped looking except for entertainment purposes. My rent hasn’t gone up in years. Unless you want to live in the outlying areas like Temecula (which is nice if you work and live there), there still don’t seem to be a lot of good deals available. My advice? Get used to renting. The people who are in those places aren’t going to drop the prices until they’re forced and guess what, they’re not going to be because they’re going to get loan reworks. As for the bank foreclosures, those are being held back with help from the government and your tax $$$. Sucks but that’s the way it is. Welcome to the American Soviet. Get out and enjoy the sunshine. Go ahead and paint the interior of your rental. Who cares?

[blahblahblah]

I’ve stopped looking except for entertainment purposes. My rent hasn’t gone up in years. Unless you want to live in the outlying areas like Temecula (which is nice if you work and live there), there still don’t seem to be a lot of good deals available. My advice? Get used to renting. The people who are in those places aren’t going to drop the prices until they’re forced and guess what, they’re not going to be because they’re going to get loan reworks. As for the bank foreclosures, those are being held back with help from the government and your tax $$$. Sucks but that’s the way it is. Welcome to the American Soviet. Get out and enjoy the sunshine. Go ahead and paint the interior of your rental. Who cares?

[blahblahblah]

I’ve stopped looking except for entertainment purposes. My rent hasn’t gone up in years. Unless you want to live in the outlying areas like Temecula (which is nice if you work and live there), there still don’t seem to be a lot of good deals available. My advice? Get used to renting. The people who are in those places aren’t going to drop the prices until they’re forced and guess what, they’re not going to be because they’re going to get loan reworks. As for the bank foreclosures, those are being held back with help from the government and your tax $$$. Sucks but that’s the way it is. Welcome to the American Soviet. Get out and enjoy the sunshine. Go ahead and paint the interior of your rental. Who cares?

[blahblahblah]

I’ve stopped looking except for entertainment purposes. My rent hasn’t gone up in years. Unless you want to live in the outlying areas like Temecula (which is nice if you work and live there), there still don’t seem to be a lot of good deals available. My advice? Get used to renting. The people who are in those places aren’t going to drop the prices until they’re forced and guess what, they’re not going to be because they’re going to get loan reworks. As for the bank foreclosures, those are being held back with help from the government and your tax $$$. Sucks but that’s the way it is. Welcome to the American Soviet. Get out and enjoy the sunshine. Go ahead and paint the interior of your rental. Who cares?

[Author]

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