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July 22, 2007 at 2:01 PM #66985July 22, 2007 at 2:01 PM #67050
garysears
ParticipantRustico, I went back and reread your post and decided to look for sales data for Sunterra. I found 123 units listed on Zillow but only a few “recent sales”. I found 13 sales in the last 24 months of sales data allowed by the county assessors website. I haven’t been able to get Trulia.com to work with the address. I am pretty new to looking up sales data. Do you know a better way to get older free data online?
This scarce data isn’t too exciting but it certainly agrees with your estimate of at least -40K in value for the middle of ’05 buyers. I would like to see the early ’05 data to see if prices were higher then. Where did you get the 90K from? Do you have access to data I do not?
I haven’t physically been by these places in awhile so I don’t know if identical floor plans can be considered to have identical furnishings inside.
Unit B/Ba SF PRICE SALES DATE
107 2/1 883 $259,900 7/7/2005
258 2/1 883 $270,900 7/7/2005
207 2/1 883 $254,900 7/14/2005
208 2/1 883 $260,900 7/25/2005
242 2/1 883 $259,900 7/25/2005
134 2/1 883 $250,000 8/15/2005102 2/2 896 $282,900 7/18/2005
101 2/2 896 $272,900 7/22/2005
125 2/2 896 $286,000 9/30/2005
138 2/2 896 $281,800 4/21/2006
121 2/2 896 $236,000 1/30/2007239 3/2 1114 $319,900 7/20/2005
146 3/2 1114 $275,000 10/6/2006July 22, 2007 at 9:30 PM #67073NotCranky
ParticipantGary,
To start off the units of similiar description for rooms and baths are similiar with the exception of the number of patios. Some have two and some have one or maybe none. I didn’t research it completely. In condo complexes people sometimes give a litle value to corner units tucked away or most convenient parking stuff like that. Right now it isn’t worht worrying about stuff like that. The repairs the devloper did are cheesy. These are your basic apartments.Your link to the tax assessor is a pretty good one. We do obviously get a better look into the details and the current activity using the MLS.
About my 40k to 90k statement. You are going to have to give my hunches a little bit of credit to accept the 90k part but I will explain. You have comps up to the middle 280’s for the 2/2 unit and you have a January 2007 comp for the same unit for 236k. I could research that and it would probably show seller paid closing costs and such . Plus you have commissions. Lets say 6k for closing and 10-12k for commissions. So net is down around 220k. So you have 65k for loss from highest to that comp for same unit. So now I go hypothetical. There have been 10-13 units listed continuously at least since January. None have sold but last I checked there was a unit in escrow I think it was the 3 bedroom. Anyway the point is next to nothing is selling there and that is no surprise. So I took the luxury of deciding that it is unlikely that another similiar unit is going to sell for more 220K gross(If it soes it will be a fluke). Subtract the possibility of closing costs and commission for that and you are getting pretty close to an 80k(not 90K)loss from the highest to the lowest. So sorry I didn’t let you know that there was a small non -data derived opinion on my part. It makes so much sense that if I had to tell a buyer what was going on there that I would feel comfortable telling the buyer not to touch it with a ten foot pole the next same unit sale or two down the road might be around 200k gross. That will be a forclosure most likely. BTW the list prices are all over the place and most much higher than the January comp. Those are very bad signs.
I am generalizing,in part, because I don’t feel comfortable bringing specific MLS data over here. I feel too much like it would be publically tossing around the story of the actual people going through this.If you are set on living out this way and if you consider a little better area , down Jamacha road, the area is actually Rancho San Diego, there are some nice complexes. They are usually accessed from the 94 coming from downtown, not the 8, but they are on the border with El cajon. The area has real nice ammenities and an improving quantity of them. I have never seen a thug around them. I doubt there is so much distress yet, but there might be, or maybe down the road there will be.
July 22, 2007 at 9:30 PM #67138ParticipantGary,
To start off the units of similiar description for rooms and baths are similiar with the exception of the number of patios. Some have two and some have one or maybe none. I didn’t research it completely. In condo complexes people sometimes give a litle value to corner units tucked away or most convenient parking stuff like that. Right now it isn’t worht worrying about stuff like that. The repairs the devloper did are cheesy. These are your basic apartments.Your link to the tax assessor is a pretty good one. We do obviously get a better look into the details and the current activity using the MLS.
About my 40k to 90k statement. You are going to have to give my hunches a little bit of credit to accept the 90k part but I will explain. You have comps up to the middle 280’s for the 2/2 unit and you have a January 2007 comp for the same unit for 236k. I could research that and it would probably show seller paid closing costs and such . Plus you have commissions. Lets say 6k for closing and 10-12k for commissions. So net is down around 220k. So you have 65k for loss from highest to that comp for same unit. So now I go hypothetical. There have been 10-13 units listed continuously at least since January. None have sold but last I checked there was a unit in escrow I think it was the 3 bedroom. Anyway the point is next to nothing is selling there and that is no surprise. So I took the luxury of deciding that it is unlikely that another similiar unit is going to sell for more 220K gross(If it soes it will be a fluke). Subtract the possibility of closing costs and commission for that and you are getting pretty close to an 80k(not 90K)loss from the highest to the lowest. So sorry I didn’t let you know that there was a small non -data derived opinion on my part. It makes so much sense that if I had to tell a buyer what was going on there that I would feel comfortable telling the buyer not to touch it with a ten foot pole the next same unit sale or two down the road might be around 200k gross. That will be a forclosure most likely. BTW the list prices are all over the place and most much higher than the January comp. Those are very bad signs.
I am generalizing,in part, because I don’t feel comfortable bringing specific MLS data over here. I feel too much like it would be publically tossing around the story of the actual people going through this.If you are set on living out this way and if you consider a little better area , down Jamacha road, the area is actually Rancho San Diego, there are some nice complexes. They are usually accessed from the 94 coming from downtown, not the 8, but they are on the border with El cajon. The area has real nice ammenities and an improving quantity of them. I have never seen a thug around them. I doubt there is so much distress yet, but there might be, or maybe down the road there will be.
July 22, 2007 at 9:55 PM #67081ParticipantUpdate to 465 /469 E. Bradley Ave:
Since posting the first time I found out Unit #4 at 465 E Bradley sold on May 16 for $197K. That means there is an identical unit in the same complex with a comp 75K below #11. So a 27% decline for #2 and likely #11 (after the bank takes it) seems a done deal. 4 of the 12 identical units in the complex are currently up for sale so it could get worse fast.
Here are the listing prices:
Unit MLS# List Date
2 076051074 $200K 6/14/07
4 SOLD for $197K on 5/16/07
5 078023086 $220K 3/21/07
6 076037262 $250K 5/07/07
11 076057009 $269K 3/26/07Unit #11 sold for $272K on 04/08/05.
Unit #02 sold for $268K on 10/31/06.It looks like the owner of #11 is still trying to right the ship, hence the high asking price. I’m real curious to find the last sale data for #5 and #6 as well as the previous sale for #4.
My feeling (hope) is that the low $200K’s will be the expectation soon for all your 800-900 sf 2bd condos in El Cajon. We already have some units at least 30% off the ’05 to ’06 highs. Some distressed units are approaching $200/sf.
745 E Bradley Ave #45 (2/1 806sf)is a bank owed property. It sold for $268K in Jan ’05 and is listed for $190K right now (-30% as listed). But it also has to compete with a sale of the same floor plan in the same unit in OCT ’06 for $174K. There is another unit (#41) listed for $175K and I think it will probably sell for less.
The apartment complex right next door to me at 457 E Bradley Ave just came up for sale as well (12 units, $1.375M). Anyone in the market for a potential condo conversion?
July 22, 2007 at 9:55 PM #67146ParticipantUpdate to 465 /469 E. Bradley Ave:
Since posting the first time I found out Unit #4 at 465 E Bradley sold on May 16 for $197K. That means there is an identical unit in the same complex with a comp 75K below #11. So a 27% decline for #2 and likely #11 (after the bank takes it) seems a done deal. 4 of the 12 identical units in the complex are currently up for sale so it could get worse fast.
Here are the listing prices:
Unit MLS# List Date
2 076051074 $200K 6/14/07
4 SOLD for $197K on 5/16/07
5 078023086 $220K 3/21/07
6 076037262 $250K 5/07/07
11 076057009 $269K 3/26/07Unit #11 sold for $272K on 04/08/05.
Unit #02 sold for $268K on 10/31/06.It looks like the owner of #11 is still trying to right the ship, hence the high asking price. I’m real curious to find the last sale data for #5 and #6 as well as the previous sale for #4.
My feeling (hope) is that the low $200K’s will be the expectation soon for all your 800-900 sf 2bd condos in El Cajon. We already have some units at least 30% off the ’05 to ’06 highs. Some distressed units are approaching $200/sf.
745 E Bradley Ave #45 (2/1 806sf)is a bank owed property. It sold for $268K in Jan ’05 and is listed for $190K right now (-30% as listed). But it also has to compete with a sale of the same floor plan in the same unit in OCT ’06 for $174K. There is another unit (#41) listed for $175K and I think it will probably sell for less.
The apartment complex right next door to me at 457 E Bradley Ave just came up for sale as well (12 units, $1.375M). Anyone in the market for a potential condo conversion?
July 22, 2007 at 10:13 PM #67087ParticipantRustico, your part about publicizing private pain is well taken. I hadn’t been considering that at all. I guess it is one thing to be an MLS listing in an anonymous sea of listings, but something else entirely to have someone like me bring up your financial situation to a broader audience.
July 22, 2007 at 10:13 PM #67152ParticipantRustico, your part about publicizing private pain is well taken. I hadn’t been considering that at all. I guess it is one thing to be an MLS listing in an anonymous sea of listings, but something else entirely to have someone like me bring up your financial situation to a broader audience.
July 22, 2007 at 11:07 PM #67105ParticipantI am not saying you have to be sensitive about it although it is a very nice thing to do. Sharing information as you are doing is very valuable to helping people understand what is going on, after all the misleading hype, I can understand feeling justified.Your strategies are top notch and could be replicated for areas that other people are interested in. If you are using your real name and you have talked about where you live I would recommend be cautious about potential reprisals.You don’t want to be the next one to get your tires slashed :).
I feel I should repect peoples privacy more because with my experience and the MLS advantage,I am supposed to be more astute at coming up with this stuff (not that I always am). I also meet many people who are in big trouble over these losses and they are really hurting.Wether they deserve it or not doesn’t matter to me. Just as many people are not exhibitionists even when they are making a killing. They don’t want their business talked about so I figure, why do it , if it is not pertinent to a transaction?July 22, 2007 at 11:07 PM #67170ParticipantI am not saying you have to be sensitive about it although it is a very nice thing to do. Sharing information as you are doing is very valuable to helping people understand what is going on, after all the misleading hype, I can understand feeling justified.Your strategies are top notch and could be replicated for areas that other people are interested in. If you are using your real name and you have talked about where you live I would recommend be cautious about potential reprisals.You don’t want to be the next one to get your tires slashed :).
I feel I should repect peoples privacy more because with my experience and the MLS advantage,I am supposed to be more astute at coming up with this stuff (not that I always am). I also meet many people who are in big trouble over these losses and they are really hurting.Wether they deserve it or not doesn’t matter to me. Just as many people are not exhibitionists even when they are making a killing. They don’t want their business talked about so I figure, why do it , if it is not pertinent to a transaction?July 25, 2007 at 8:08 PM #67773ParticipantI finally figured out how to make a .jpg out of an excel graph. I still can’t figure out how to make it show up here if that is even possible. I also found a good site for all historical sales data in San Diego County. Try http://www.sdlookup.com and go to the “Closed Sales” part.
This is all the historical sales data I could find for all 12 (identical) units in the complex. You might find this interesting:
http://i17.tinypic.com/52w3xnk.jpg
The surprising thing I noticed is that the prices people were paying in 1997 were the same nominal prices as in 1985. That is a pretty flat trend line until late ’01 to early ’02. The slope of the graph really increases at that point. I think the scale gives a pretty true indication of the effects of easy financing. Note how the “peak” price is really a pinnacle due to the sale earlier this year. The last 6 points represent 5 different units.
I also need to correct my statement earlier. I don’t think #5 and #6 will end up being foreclosures due to the fact that the current owners bought these well before the current runup and ridiculous financing. I made an assumption that was unwarranted.
July 25, 2007 at 8:08 PM #67839ParticipantI finally figured out how to make a .jpg out of an excel graph. I still can’t figure out how to make it show up here if that is even possible. I also found a good site for all historical sales data in San Diego County. Try http://www.sdlookup.com and go to the “Closed Sales” part.
This is all the historical sales data I could find for all 12 (identical) units in the complex. You might find this interesting:
http://i17.tinypic.com/52w3xnk.jpg
The surprising thing I noticed is that the prices people were paying in 1997 were the same nominal prices as in 1985. That is a pretty flat trend line until late ’01 to early ’02. The slope of the graph really increases at that point. I think the scale gives a pretty true indication of the effects of easy financing. Note how the “peak” price is really a pinnacle due to the sale earlier this year. The last 6 points represent 5 different units.
I also need to correct my statement earlier. I don’t think #5 and #6 will end up being foreclosures due to the fact that the current owners bought these well before the current runup and ridiculous financing. I made an assumption that was unwarranted.
July 25, 2007 at 8:32 PM #67782drunkle
Participantbroke
July 25, 2007 at 8:32 PM #67848Participantbroke
July 25, 2007 at 9:40 PM #67806patientrenter
ParticipantGary, that last chart of the prices of the 2/2 units is… stunning. I know we’ve all seen data showing prices rising, and we – the old ones like me anyway – remember prices back in 1997 and 1989 and so on, but the memory gets a bit fuzzy at times.
This chart is one of crispest and most irrefutable encapsulations I’ve seen of what happened, and what’s happening now, to prices. It’s amazing how little data is needed to get good information if it’s this well-chosen. Thanks.
Patient renter in OC
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