El Cajon Condo Blowout! (-27% in 8 months)

[NotCranky]

Hi Gary,
I saw that $99,900 while looking at these places on the MlS today. Never been to the complex before. The limited idea I could get from the photos is that this is a very plain, almost industrial looking place in an area with no comforting feel to it whatsoever.

Sunterra has 6 or so pendings now and the active listing have always hovered around 12-15. Nothing sold until they accepted offers the 125k range for the 2/2. This seems like enough to incite some activity and discourage further price drops for now. Maybe another round down later this year?

Do you ever look at 92019? The area around Cuyamaca College is much nicer and improving still. The cheaper units are around Fury Lane. I really like the complexes on Calle Albarra. It is still very easy to get to the heart of El Cajon via Jamacha or Avocado if need be. I think I mentioned it before. Much nicer area and some distressed sales have come through.
It actually can function as a good walking neighborhood too, in a kind of suburban-name-brand kind of way.

[NotCranky]

Hi Gary,
I saw that $99,900 while looking at these places on the MlS today. Never been to the complex before. The limited idea I could get from the photos is that this is a very plain, almost industrial looking place in an area with no comforting feel to it whatsoever.

Sunterra has 6 or so pendings now and the active listing have always hovered around 12-15. Nothing sold until they accepted offers the 125k range for the 2/2. This seems like enough to incite some activity and discourage further price drops for now. Maybe another round down later this year?

Do you ever look at 92019? The area around Cuyamaca College is much nicer and improving still. The cheaper units are around Fury Lane. I really like the complexes on Calle Albarra. It is still very easy to get to the heart of El Cajon via Jamacha or Avocado if need be. I think I mentioned it before. Much nicer area and some distressed sales have come through.
It actually can function as a good walking neighborhood too, in a kind of suburban-name-brand kind of way.

[garysears]

Here is the updated sales graph for 745 Bradley to include the January 2008 sale.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2qjkvo1.jpg

Some people have speculated we might see 2000-2001 nominal prices again. If so, that would mean these 2bd condos would be selling in the 60K-75K range (2000 prices). That seems absolutely ridiculous considering current rents. But I can’t see any of these bank owned condos going for more than 100K given the recent 99K list price. The downward pressure on prices is more than ever in the complex. The 80Ks would represent 2001 prices. Am I nuts to believe that might happen here in the next year?

[garysears]

Here is the updated sales graph for 745 Bradley to include the January 2008 sale.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2qjkvo1.jpg

Some people have speculated we might see 2000-2001 nominal prices again. If so, that would mean these 2bd condos would be selling in the 60K-75K range (2000 prices). That seems absolutely ridiculous considering current rents. But I can’t see any of these bank owned condos going for more than 100K given the recent 99K list price. The downward pressure on prices is more than ever in the complex. The 80Ks would represent 2001 prices. Am I nuts to believe that might happen here in the next year?

[garysears]

Here is the updated sales graph for 745 Bradley to include the January 2008 sale.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2qjkvo1.jpg

Some people have speculated we might see 2000-2001 nominal prices again. If so, that would mean these 2bd condos would be selling in the 60K-75K range (2000 prices). That seems absolutely ridiculous considering current rents. But I can’t see any of these bank owned condos going for more than 100K given the recent 99K list price. The downward pressure on prices is more than ever in the complex. The 80Ks would represent 2001 prices. Am I nuts to believe that might happen here in the next year?

[garysears]

Here is the updated sales graph for 745 Bradley to include the January 2008 sale.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2qjkvo1.jpg

Some people have speculated we might see 2000-2001 nominal prices again. If so, that would mean these 2bd condos would be selling in the 60K-75K range (2000 prices). That seems absolutely ridiculous considering current rents. But I can’t see any of these bank owned condos going for more than 100K given the recent 99K list price. The downward pressure on prices is more than ever in the complex. The 80Ks would represent 2001 prices. Am I nuts to believe that might happen here in the next year?

[garysears]

Here is the updated sales graph for 745 Bradley to include the January 2008 sale.

http://i31.tinypic.com/2qjkvo1.jpg

Some people have speculated we might see 2000-2001 nominal prices again. If so, that would mean these 2bd condos would be selling in the 60K-75K range (2000 prices). That seems absolutely ridiculous considering current rents. But I can’t see any of these bank owned condos going for more than 100K given the recent 99K list price. The downward pressure on prices is more than ever in the complex. The 80Ks would represent 2001 prices. Am I nuts to believe that might happen here in the next year?

[garysears]

Rustico,

Thanks for the tip. I haven’t looked too much at 92019. I looked at the Fury Lane condos online and am not impressed (with the prices). The cheapest 2bd is 235K. For that money I’d rather get a SFR in 92113 or 92114. There are a lot of places you can get in those zip codes for 240K.

I was tempted by a ~800sf 2bd house with a 2 car garage for 170K in Emerald Hills (57th street, 92114 by the 94). That one looked like a much better deal than any 2bed condo and the area would have been really convenient for me. I’ll be interested to see what next year brings. Part of me doesn’t see how prices in those zip codes can go much lower, but the other part of me says it it too early to buy and if I buy now I’ll regret it later.

Unless I see a real sweet property, I’m thinking sub 200K SFR for sure. A lot of what I wouldn’t mind living in is in the 225K range right now. I want to wait and see if they’ll go into the 180K range next year. It seems like each month I don’t buy I’m saving at least 2K in declining value.

[garysears]

Rustico,

Thanks for the tip. I haven’t looked too much at 92019. I looked at the Fury Lane condos online and am not impressed (with the prices). The cheapest 2bd is 235K. For that money I’d rather get a SFR in 92113 or 92114. There are a lot of places you can get in those zip codes for 240K.

I was tempted by a ~800sf 2bd house with a 2 car garage for 170K in Emerald Hills (57th street, 92114 by the 94). That one looked like a much better deal than any 2bed condo and the area would have been really convenient for me. I’ll be interested to see what next year brings. Part of me doesn’t see how prices in those zip codes can go much lower, but the other part of me says it it too early to buy and if I buy now I’ll regret it later.

Unless I see a real sweet property, I’m thinking sub 200K SFR for sure. A lot of what I wouldn’t mind living in is in the 225K range right now. I want to wait and see if they’ll go into the 180K range next year. It seems like each month I don’t buy I’m saving at least 2K in declining value.

[garysears]

Rustico,

Thanks for the tip. I haven’t looked too much at 92019. I looked at the Fury Lane condos online and am not impressed (with the prices). The cheapest 2bd is 235K. For that money I’d rather get a SFR in 92113 or 92114. There are a lot of places you can get in those zip codes for 240K.

I was tempted by a ~800sf 2bd house with a 2 car garage for 170K in Emerald Hills (57th street, 92114 by the 94). That one looked like a much better deal than any 2bed condo and the area would have been really convenient for me. I’ll be interested to see what next year brings. Part of me doesn’t see how prices in those zip codes can go much lower, but the other part of me says it it too early to buy and if I buy now I’ll regret it later.

Unless I see a real sweet property, I’m thinking sub 200K SFR for sure. A lot of what I wouldn’t mind living in is in the 225K range right now. I want to wait and see if they’ll go into the 180K range next year. It seems like each month I don’t buy I’m saving at least 2K in declining value.

[garysears]

Rustico,

Thanks for the tip. I haven’t looked too much at 92019. I looked at the Fury Lane condos online and am not impressed (with the prices). The cheapest 2bd is 235K. For that money I’d rather get a SFR in 92113 or 92114. There are a lot of places you can get in those zip codes for 240K.

I was tempted by a ~800sf 2bd house with a 2 car garage for 170K in Emerald Hills (57th street, 92114 by the 94). That one looked like a much better deal than any 2bed condo and the area would have been really convenient for me. I’ll be interested to see what next year brings. Part of me doesn’t see how prices in those zip codes can go much lower, but the other part of me says it it too early to buy and if I buy now I’ll regret it later.

Unless I see a real sweet property, I’m thinking sub 200K SFR for sure. A lot of what I wouldn’t mind living in is in the 225K range right now. I want to wait and see if they’ll go into the 180K range next year. It seems like each month I don’t buy I’m saving at least 2K in declining value.

[garysears]

Rustico,

Thanks for the tip. I haven’t looked too much at 92019. I looked at the Fury Lane condos online and am not impressed (with the prices). The cheapest 2bd is 235K. For that money I’d rather get a SFR in 92113 or 92114. There are a lot of places you can get in those zip codes for 240K.

I was tempted by a ~800sf 2bd house with a 2 car garage for 170K in Emerald Hills (57th street, 92114 by the 94). That one looked like a much better deal than any 2bed condo and the area would have been really convenient for me. I’ll be interested to see what next year brings. Part of me doesn’t see how prices in those zip codes can go much lower, but the other part of me says it it too early to buy and if I buy now I’ll regret it later.

Unless I see a real sweet property, I’m thinking sub 200K SFR for sure. A lot of what I wouldn’t mind living in is in the 225K range right now. I want to wait and see if they’ll go into the 180K range next year. It seems like each month I don’t buy I’m saving at least 2K in declining value.

[NotCranky]

I don’t think that is unrealistic at all(Bradley). Might or might not happen but it certainly isn’t much of a stretch. El Cajon has never been much but it seems to have really gone down hill in the last 10-15yrs.If it went down hill in properous times and a boom what will happen in a bust and a recession? I am not writing it off or trying to be too much a snob but it looks more like National City than ever. I would be reluctant to buy there unless I had my finger on the pulse of some rebound, which I don’t but could be missing.
This is coming from someone who is fond of economy minded housing attitudes. I just think a modicum more of a quality of life concern might apply. Maybe I am getting soft in my old age. I happily started my ownership career in a pretty bad neighborhood which got a lot better with time.

[NotCranky]

I don’t think that is unrealistic at all(Bradley). Might or might not happen but it certainly isn’t much of a stretch. El Cajon has never been much but it seems to have really gone down hill in the last 10-15yrs.If it went down hill in properous times and a boom what will happen in a bust and a recession? I am not writing it off or trying to be too much a snob but it looks more like National City than ever. I would be reluctant to buy there unless I had my finger on the pulse of some rebound, which I don’t but could be missing.
This is coming from someone who is fond of economy minded housing attitudes. I just think a modicum more of a quality of life concern might apply. Maybe I am getting soft in my old age. I happily started my ownership career in a pretty bad neighborhood which got a lot better with time.

[NotCranky]

I don’t think that is unrealistic at all(Bradley). Might or might not happen but it certainly isn’t much of a stretch. El Cajon has never been much but it seems to have really gone down hill in the last 10-15yrs.If it went down hill in properous times and a boom what will happen in a bust and a recession? I am not writing it off or trying to be too much a snob but it looks more like National City than ever. I would be reluctant to buy there unless I had my finger on the pulse of some rebound, which I don’t but could be missing.
This is coming from someone who is fond of economy minded housing attitudes. I just think a modicum more of a quality of life concern might apply. Maybe I am getting soft in my old age. I happily started my ownership career in a pretty bad neighborhood which got a lot better with time.

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