Downtown Density vs. Single Family Residence

[PerryChase]

Much has been said about the changing American housing landscape. Urban planners are hoping that Americans will be increasingly willing to living in apartments Manhattan style. I wonder if San Diegans are willing to give up living in SFR and move into multi-family units. I think this will determine the fate of downtown. Will those expensive condos turn into cheap rentals? Or will families move in?

I saw first hand what renting can do to a home. Last week, I bought something on Craigslist and had to pick it up at a coastal home in Encinitas. That home was totally redone and rented out to a bunch of guys/drug addicts who completely trashed the place. The owner is faced with another remodel job. I image that the same could happen to many units downtown.

I believe that in the long run, downtown is viable but what about the next 5-10 years when people’s wherewithal to hold on to those places wears out? Right now, only young adults live downtown because there are no good schools for the kids. I also think that downtown condos are too small for families accustomed to more space.

Do you guys thing that downtown will crash more badly than other areas of San Diego?

[CardiffBaseball]

Well my kid can walk out in the backyard without going to a park, and shoot hoops, hit baseballs into a net, play hide and seek etc. All without our lives stopping so everyone can trot off to the park. We also go outside and do sprints on an uphill street (who needs gym) and lift weights or workout bodyweight stuff with the kids in the Garage because we have ample parking and don’t need to park inside.

No way would I want to trade all that for urban living.

[no_such_reality]

They won’t trade.

Like NY and SF, they’ll do it when it’s the only option in the city and the alternative is a one to two hour commute each way.

However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a serious market for downtown units. DINKS and single Yuppies are good targets provided downtown generates the high-end jobs in density.

A density of high-end jobs are required so that the DINKS and Yuppies, that in reality are the ones living in SF nd NY downtown, can be, just like SF & NY, only there 50% of the time or less. The rest they’re in Cabo, Jamaica, Vail, ad nausuem.

[Bugs]

Lots of the people who are attracted to the downtown like it BECAUSE of the lack of kids and soccer moms in assault vehicles. I dunno if there’s enough of them to buy all those units (I suspect not), but that is who the developers were aiming at. Any pitches they made to families were probably an afterthought.

Honestly, I think there are some projects that were developed because of the availability of construction financing more than in response to percieved demand.

[PerryChase]

I’m attracted to downtown. That’s why I asked. I love NYC but I can’t stand the weather there. I like to never think about what to wear. In NYC, only the rich can insulate themselves from the discomfort of the nasty weather and the urban grunge.

The difference is that in San Diego (and LA too) the preponderance of jobs are not downtown so you still need to own a car and drive.

I’m also afraid that downtown SD is just a fad that people will get sick of if crime and homelessness move back in. I don’t want to be surrounded by all yuppies. What I love about Manhattan is that there are all kinds of people from all walks of life there. I feel that downtown SD has a long way to go. Downtown SD is also not constrained by geography like Manhattan and SF are. In NYC, people will pay more to live in a studio in Manhattan rather than a larger unit in Queens or Brooklyn or Jersey. I don’t think that San Diegan are ready to trade their spacious SFR for an urban flat.

I’m wondering when the best time might be to buy in SD. If downtown is a fad, then the next few years is definitely not the time. 10 years hence?

People say that they love Downtown, but few actually live there full-time.

[barnaby33]

Who says they love downtown? Most people I know wouldn’t ever live there, and they are DINK’s and Yuppies. I MIGHT live there for bit as an investment, but come on. Its everything SD isn’t.

Josh

[sdappraiser]

Wait and see how well these buildings hold up during the next big earthquake. More importantly (maybe), how people’s desire to live on the 14th floor is affected.

[contentrenter]

Hey! I live downtown and I like it.

I’m in an old, old building, on a block with a check cashing place and a 99 cent store — it couldn’t be more different from the glossy highrises with the gyms and swimming pools. But I can walk to work, walk to the waterfront, walk to the grocery store, etc etc. I move my car so infrequently that I forget where it is in my parking garage, and gritting my teeth during the commute home is a distant memory. I’ve got 1300 square feet for $1400/mo (!!!) and nice, professional, quiet neighbors.

That said, if property values slide and all the new buildings stay vacant, I worry about what might happen. How long can the slick new restaurants with ten dollar cocktails last if everyone’s money dries up?

My lease is up next March (sold my gated-community monstrosity in Chula Vista April 05). I’m not sure what I’ll do then, but for the moment renting downtown is great.

[contentrenter]

Hey! I live downtown and I like it.

I’m in an old, old building, on a block with a check cashing place and a 99 cent store — it couldn’t be more different from the glossy highrises with the gyms and swimming pools. But I can walk to work, walk to the waterfront, walk to the grocery store, etc etc. I move my car so infrequently that I forget where it is in my parking garage, and gritting my teeth during the commute home is a distant memory. I’ve got 1300 square feet for $1400/mo (!!!) and nice, professional, quiet neighbors.

That said, if property values slide and all the new buildings stay vacant, I worry about what might happen. How long can the slick new restaurants with ten dollar cocktails last if everyone’s money dries up?

My lease is up next March (sold my gated-community monstrosity in Chula Vista April 05). I’m not sure what I’ll do then, but for the moment renting downtown is great.

[Peace]

I actually think of San Diego proper as an old folks town and always thought those were the buyers that should have been targeted.
In fact for a few years that is exactly where my sister and BIL were planning on retiring until the condo prices went sky high.
Families I know who live in NYC and SF live in what I would describe as inter-urban neighborhoods – flats that are mostly occupied by families or they own a rowhouse. They are able to either get their kids into the top public school in the city or can afford $15,000 – $30,000 tuition. If I had the money that is exactly how I would live and raise my family.
But it’s nothing like downtown SD where I’d like to go visit Grandma but not live there.

[PerryChase]

San Diego has a long way to go before downwtown is anything like SF or Manhattan. I agree with you peace. But a townhouse in Manhattan? I could never afford one. A friend of mine goes to grad school at NYU and he rents a room in a 3 story house owned by a jewish couple. His rent is $1000 for a 9×10 room. The house is nice but it’s old and musty — could use restoration.

As far as San Diego goes, it’ll take a while to build a community downtown, perhaps 30 years.

[powayseller]

SDAppraiser, what does history tell us about the effect on highrises after an earthquake? Could an earthquake in SF cause fear of it happening here, thus lowering values?

[Author]

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