DOW >17k, how’s everyone’s 401k doing?

[an]

Seems like most people are matching or slightly beating the index. That’s great. Hopefully this will continue for all of us.

[quote=UCGal]I’m curious how you calculate your growth on your 401k?[/quote]I just use the % calculation from Fidelity. By my calculation, it seems like they’re taking gain divide by YTD contribution from you and your employer, then add it to your 1/1/14 balance.

[quote=JohnAlt91941]The stock market appears to be in a huge bubble, and hardly anybody is talking about it. Remind anyone of another bubble from the last decade?[/quote]I think we’re still far far away from the 90s bubble. I remember buying anything with a .com and your “investment” would go up 50% in a few months.

[Coronita]

The funny part is out of all the accounts, I think my kid’s 529 plan did pretty well… Slow and steady produced about 65% over about 7 years, with no involvement on my part

I stopped contributing regularly in case the unlikely events of tuition costing less than expected and/or kid gets a full ride merit scholarship(yeah right)…

[joec]

I’m up maybe 1-2% over index from my last check…Sold a lot of stuff the last week since I needed some cash and things still go up.

Plan to just sit and wait it out and think it goes higher maybe for up to a year or 2. I don’t claim to know. Still invested in some dividend payers though (things I bought just for income/dividend) and things which I feel are less likely for me to panic sell (like utilities/cellphone company (verizon)).

With no place else to put their money, this market doesn’t or won’t be going down I don’t think until something unexpected changes.

One thought I’ve heard recently is maybe the “bubble” is thinking the fed (Yellen) Put will work.

If her put option is really no option and doesn’t work, then everyone who thought they were protected from the Fed will panic and sell.

[kev374]

No way tjete is going to be a 35-50% correction, that would literally be apocalyptic and it has not ever happened in the past!

[scaredyclassic]

I tried to sell my wife’s old 401k at the bottom but I couldn’t figure out the computer access. It’s probably up 100 percent. The best strategy is to not let me do anything.

[CA renter]

[quote=kev374]No way tjete is going to be a 35-50% correction, that would literally be apocalyptic and it has not ever happened in the past![/quote]

Funny…for a moment, I thought you were serious. 😉

[UCGal]

[quote=scaredyclassic]I tried to sell my wife’s old 401k at the bottom but I couldn’t figure out the computer access. It’s probably up 100 percent. The best strategy is to not let me do anything.[/quote]

You’re not the only one. There have been studies done that show that people, in general, have bad instincts when it comes to timing the market – and just letting stuff ride ends up more lucrative, in the long run.

I know for a fact that I am a terrible market timer… so I’m now in the zen “let it ride” mode….through ups and downs.

[livinincali]

[quote=AN]I think we’re still far far away from the 90s bubble. I remember buying anything with a .com and your “investment” would go up 50% in a few months.[/quote]

You mean like these recent IPOs

GPRO
KITE
ARDX
ZSPH
VNOM
MRD
ANET
RDUS
AGRX
SDPI
JD
SEMI
TRUE
ZEN

[Coronita]

How does the old saying go?

The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent… Think twice about going short or long my friends.

[an]

[quote=livinincali][quote=AN]I think we’re still far far away from the 90s bubble. I remember buying anything with a .com and your “investment” would go up 50% in a few months.[/quote]

You mean like these recent IPOs

GPRO
KITE
ARDX
ZSPH
VNOM
MRD
ANET
RDUS
AGRX
SDPI
JD
SEMI
TRUE
ZEN[/quote]Back then, you can pick almost any stock (not just IPO) that have a .com and you can easily double your money in a few months. I’m not saying there aren’t overvalued stocks today. I’m just saying the irrational exuberance were much much more obvious back then. You know you’re in bubble territory when everybody is talking about how much money they made from stocks.

Ariba, Inc. went up over 4X in 4 months.
JDSU went up over 4X in 4 months.
QCOM went up 3X in 2 months.

I can go on and on. But you get the point. Not only start up were seeing 3x increase in stock price in a span of a few months. To be in the same scale today as it was in 1999-2000, FB has to be ~200, TWTR has to be ~180, etc.

[livinincali]

[quote=AN][quote=livinincali][quote=AN]I think we’re still far far away from the 90s bubble. I remember buying anything with a .com and your “investment” would go up 50% in a few months.[/quote]

You mean like these recent IPOs

GPRO
KITE
ARDX
ZSPH
VNOM
MRD
ANET
RDUS
AGRX
SDPI
JD
SEMI
TRUE
ZEN[/quote]Back then, you can pick almost any stock (not just IPO) that have a .com and you can easily double your money in a few months. I’m not saying there aren’t overvalued stocks today. I’m just saying the irrational exuberance were much much more obvious back then. You know you’re in bubble territory when everybody is talking about how much money they made from stocks.

Ariba, Inc. went up over 4X in 4 months.
JDSU went up over 4X in 4 months.
QCOM went up 3X in 2 months.

I can go on and on. But you get the point. Not only start up were seeing 3x increase in stock price in a span of a few months. To be in the same scale today as it was in 1999-2000, FB has to be ~200, TWTR has to be ~180, etc.[/quote]

QCOM in 1999 had a market cap of about 75 billion and annual revenues of about 4 billion. So there price to revenue was 18.75. FB has a market cap of 167 billion and revenues of roughly 10 billion = 16.7 price to revenue. TWTR is 23 billion market with revenue projected to be about 1 billion = 23.0 price to revenue. So in valuation terms FB and TWTR are pretty close to where QCOM was at the peak of the 1999 bubble. TWTR is higher, FB is slightly lower. The biggest difference is when they IPO QCOM was a IPO well before the bubble FB and TWTR have both IPOed somewhere in the middle of this bubble.

[an]

[quote=livinincali]
QCOM in 1999 had a market cap of about 75 billion and annual revenues of about 4 billion. So there price to revenue was 18.75. FB has a market cap of 167 billion and revenues of roughly 10 billion = 16.7 price to revenue. TWTR is 23 billion market with revenue projected to be about 1 billion = 23.0 price to revenue. So in valuation terms FB and TWTR are pretty close to where QCOM was at the peak of the 1999 bubble. TWTR is higher, FB is slightly lower. The biggest difference is when they IPO QCOM was a IPO well before the bubble FB and TWTR have both IPOed somewhere in the middle of this bubble.[/quote]
QCOM is just one of those company I listed. There are many many more. How about INTC that went up 200% between 1998 to 2000, MSFT went up 150% between 98-2000, AMD went up 400% between 99-2000. Then there are the huge number of .com that are now completely delisted, like VerticalNet, Ariba, and other B2B, B2C companies. You can almost just throw a dart at a dart board with sticker symbols and you’d make a HUGE gain in spand of a few months.

That’s just looking at the stock market over the 1-2 years before it popped. If you look at the longer range of 1995-2000, MSFT went up 1400%, INTC went up 1000%, QCOM went up 5300%, JDSU went up 18000%, etc. Even from the depth of the recession in 2008, these companies have only gone up 50-200%. Get back to me when FB or TWTR went up 18k%. I’ll be kind and say, if FB and TWTR can gain 1000% over 5 years like INTC did, then I would say it’s a bubble.

[livinincali]

[quote=AN][quote=livinincali]
QCOM in 1999 had a market cap of about 75 billion and annual revenues of about 4 billion. So there price to revenue was 18.75. FB has a market cap of 167 billion and revenues of roughly 10 billion = 16.7 price to revenue. TWTR is 23 billion market with revenue projected to be about 1 billion = 23.0 price to revenue. So in valuation terms FB and TWTR are pretty close to where QCOM was at the peak of the 1999 bubble. TWTR is higher, FB is slightly lower. The biggest difference is when they IPO QCOM was a IPO well before the bubble FB and TWTR have both IPOed somewhere in the middle of this bubble.[/quote]
QCOM is just one of those company I listed. There are many many more. How about INTC that went up 200% between 1998 to 2000, MSFT went up 150% between 98-2000, AMD went up 400% between 99-2000. Then there are the huge number of .com that are now completely delisted, like VerticalNet, Ariba, and other B2B, B2C companies. You can almost just throw a dart at a dart board with sticker symbols and you’d make a HUGE gain in spand of a few months.

That’s just looking at the stock market over the 1-2 years before it popped. If you look at the longer range of 1995-2000, MSFT went up 1400%, INTC went up 1000%, QCOM went up 5300%, JDSU went up 18000%, etc. Even from the depth of the recession in 2008, these companies have only gone up 50-200%. Get back to me when FB or TWTR went up 18k%. I’ll be kind and say, if FB and TWTR can gain 1000% over 5 years like INTC did, then I would say it’s a bubble.[/quote]

For the private equity investors in FB before it went public they probably did have thousands of percent returns. Tech companies these days aren’t going public as early as they did in the past. Goldman Sacs probably has tons FB stock that translates to a dollar or less when they were early investors.

It’s the valuation that matters not how much something has gone up. It’s it a bubble if the valuation doesn’t make any sense. Not whether it went up 1000% or 100%.

Look at CYNK. It has no revenue. It’s based in Belize with want I can tell is one employee and it’s gone from 0.06 to 9.74 in less than a month. That’s only a 16100% percent return.

I know the stock market is in a bubble. I do not know when it’s going to pop. I fully expect most people to fail to exit at or near the top even though they all think they’re smart enough to get out at the top. It’s just the nature of a bubble. If you think you’ll know the exit point is when TWTR goes up 1000% good luck. I doubt that’s going to be the signal for the top this time around.

[an]

[quote=livinincali]
For the private equity investors in FB before it went public they probably did have thousands of percent returns. Tech companies these days aren’t going public as early as they did in the past. Goldman Sacs probably has tons FB stock that translates to a dollar or less when they were early investors.

It’s the valuation that matters not how much something has gone up. It’s it a bubble if the valuation doesn’t make any sense. Not whether it went up 1000% or 100%.

Look at CYNK. It has no revenue. It’s based in Belize with want I can tell is one employee and it’s gone from 0.06 to 9.74 in less than a month. That’s only a 16100% percent return.

I know the stock market is in a bubble. I do not know when it’s going to pop. I fully expect most people to fail to exit at or near the top even though they all think they’re smart enough to get out at the top. It’s just the nature of a bubble. If you think you’ll know the exit point is when TWTR goes up 1000% good luck. I doubt that’s going to be the signal for the top this time around.[/quote]Most of .com stocks in the 90s have negative earnings and very little revenue. It was all vapor wear. Which is why most of them went away. Yet, they still went up thousands of % in a very short period. This is thousands of % increase for your average retail investor, not private equity. I’m sure private equity back then made an even larger killing.

Yes, I agree with you that stock is not cheap today. But I disagree with the comparison of today vs the 90s. It’s still a long way away to get to 90s level bubble. Maybe today is like 96-97, expensive but not quite bubbly like 99-2000.

I never said anything about timing the top of the market. What I said is, you know you’re in a 99-00 level bubble is when everyone and their dogs are talking about buying stocks and giving stock tips.

[moneymaker]

On average earnings are down, on average stock prices are up, I would call this dangerous! I’m thinking bubble, but to make money shorting would be very difficult or very lucky. Look how difficult is was for Bill Ackman to short Herbal Life, and he is a professional. Any business can be propped up, that is the nature of the stock market.

[Author]

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