DOW >17k, how’s everyone’s 401k doing?

[an]

Seems like the market is on a roar again. YTD, S&P is up 8.4%, DOW is up 3.8% and NASDAQ is up 8.6%. How’s everyone doing with their 401k? Are you guys/gals beating the index YTD?

Do you guys/gals think the 2nd half will continue the same trajectory as the 1st half?

[CA renter]

Been entering more short positions over the past couple of months as the market’s been rising. While I can’t nail the timing, I think we’re going to see another 35-50% correction (possibly more) by the end of 2017.

[spdrun]

CA Renter – Here’s hoping. And here’s hoping for sooner! A peak in margin debt tends to be a leading indicator of a stock market peak.

http://www.businessinsider.com/nyse-margin-debt-may-2014-2014-6

A sudden correction right after QE3 is tapered would be a beautiful thing and a hell of a buying opportunity. The more so if it’s driven by Iraq going insane and pushing oil up to $200/bbl, which would be good for the alternative energy industry (I support a total fossil fuel phase-out in 20 years).

This being said, I don’t have a 401K, but I’m doing fine trading stocks of companies that actually provide value. Beats working!

[UCGal]

My overall investments have not beaten the index, nor are they designed to. I have a 60/40 split – 60% index funds equity. 60% in fixed income – a combo of government bonds, corporate bonds, and a cash position that is mostly in CDs.

It won’t go up as much as the market, but it won’t go down as much, either. The fixed income provides some dampening. My positions in international index and in small cap provide some extra growth potential along with risk.

I am a TERRIBLE stock picker and an even worse market timer. So set and forget with index funds works for me.

I’m curious how you calculate your growth on your 401k? I assume you’re making contributions through the year, so how do you subtract that out? Or do you consider your overall growth – including contributions? Going forward I’ll be able to cleanly see my returns, since my 401k/IRAs are off the table for use for many years.

[moneymaker]

I predict a slow, drawn out decline starting this month. Could take 2-3 months to hit bottom and stay there for a while. Just my guess, please don’t gamble your life savings based on my guess. OT- Has anyone else had problems with their Li-ion batteries swelling up? My phone has been acting weird lately, just discovered it was the extended battery. Ordered a new one through Amazon Prime, should be here Monday. Mean while will have to use the original battery as a temporary fix.

[spdrun]

I had a laptop battery swell recently, but that’s probably not the info you’re looking for.

[moneymaker]

I now know why the batteries swell, just wondering how widespread the problem seems to be. I’m guessing spdrun that you leave your laptop connected to AC power all the time. I think the battery swelling issue is related to the electronic device trickling charge to battery instead of shutting off the charging sytem entirely. I leave my laptop plugged in always, it has Li-ion battery and has never had a problem. I guess HP is smarter than Samsung in this regard.

[SK in CV]

The S&P just finished 6 consecutive up quarters. That’s the most consecutive up quarters in 14 years. It’s also been trading within a relatively narrow channel for the last 10 quarters, and every time it gets near the top of that channel, it pulls back pretty sharply. For most of this year, it’s been floating in the middle. But it’s approached the top of the channel recently. Near term, the top of that channel is 2,000. (It’s moving at about 25 pts/qtr) And now we’re into another earnings season. Barring any significant earnings surprises, and big world events, I expect that if it hits 2000 in the next couple weeks, it could fall back 100-150 pts pretty quickly. If it doesn’t, it could float in the 1975-1925 range (or slightly lower) for much of the next quarter without a significant pull back, much as it floated mid-channel around 1850 from mid-Feb to mid-May.

All that said, I’m nervous about earnings. I bought a Dec S&P put 6 mos out 10% below current strike as insurance for my long stuff.

I was up on the S&P by a point the 1st half of the year, which was disappointing. I’d love to blame it on having regular work to do the 1st 3 months of the year and not trading near as much, but I can’t. 1st quarter killed, 2nd quarter was almost exactly flat.

[The-Shoveler]

I would like to say that I had been fully invested but I was not so My 401K returns have been somewhat diluted.

But really aside from what is going on in the middle-east (the whole place seems to be going to heck lately), I don’t see a crash coming.
Maybe that could be a signal to sell LOL.

In fact I see just the opposite happening, I think we may just be getting started but I am really lousy at stocks so there you are.

[spdrun]

(1) QE is being “retired” — June employment numbers are good enough to virtually guarantee tapering through the September Fed meeting when we’ll be down to $15 billion a month.
(2) Middle East is a mess. Ukraine is starting up again.
(3) Margin debt is a pretty good indicator of future events. All it takes is a small correction to start the margin calls a rollin’ in.

[svelte]

[quote=AN]Seems like the market is on a roar again. YTD, S&P is up 8.4%, DOW is up 3.8% and NASDAQ is up 8.6%. How’s everyone doing with their 401k? Are you guys/gals beating the index YTD?

Do you guys/gals think the 2nd half will continue the same trajectory as the 1st half?[/quote]

I’m up 7.73%

Slow and steady, baby. Slow and steady.

[paramount]

Here is my ROR for 2014:

Rate of Return Details
Your Rate of Return (ROR) (Year to Date) 7.66%

It looks like the US economy is on a roll right now:

288k jobs June 2014
Early 2Q GDP approaching 5%
Crude facing downward pressure
Gold in a steady trading range
10 yead bond holding steady @ 2.6

Nothing to see here, move along please.

[spdrun]

Jobs report is mixed. Non-adjusted:

Full-time jobs: -523k
Part time: +799k

Q2 GDP estimates are in the range of 3% (making up for Q1, basically), fortunately nowhere near 5%:

http://www.businessinsider.com/bad-news-for-q2-gdp-2014-7
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5ed93e44-6fdc-4c62-8e1a-bbe42fa0d09c

Here’s hoping for another “economic winter” in the Northeast this year. I love snow, especially when it keeps property markets dead and people sitting at home rather than looking for houses.

My rate of return is > 20% for the year. But I’d rather have steady, predictable returns from renting foreclosed property than returns I have to actually work for and stress about. Even if they’re lower. I enjoy fixing up houses and working with my hands more than brain work — it’s more like fun than work.

[Coronita]

I’m averaging out about 7% ytd total….

[Reality]

401k is fine. Concerned about the future though.

The stock market appears to be in a huge bubble, and hardly anybody is talking about it. Remind anyone of another bubble from the last decade?

I guess it’s different now.

[Author]

Posts