Deflation is winning

[underdose]

kewp, what amounts to $500 billion? The total of writedowns, or the potential amount of tsunami flood back? I’m not sure what you mean, or where you are getting that figure from.

I disagree with your assessment that Peter Schiff had it backwards. Do you also think that Rich has it backwards? Both Rich Toscano (our host here) and Schiff are saying similar things. I read both of them because they back up my intuitions with hard data that I don’t feel like digging up myself. A lot of people, mostly fully discredited pundits on CNBC and the like, have been calling Peter Schiff “Dr. Doom” and dismissing what he has to say. He has a better track record to date than almost anyone. About the only people up there with him in terms of track record are Jim Rogers and George Soros, also saying dollar debasement will win. Incidentally, Soros has a few billion to his name to prove that he is almost always right.

Have you read Bernanke’s 2002 speech? It’s inspiring. He has the will, and the means, to cause severe inflation. Any indications of momentary deflation will likely only make him more aggressive, and that much more likely to overshoot and print too much. Most really smart people consider this the greatest threat we face.

[kewp]

kewp, what amounts to $500 billion? The total of writedowns, or the potential amount of tsunami flood back? I’m not sure what you mean, or where you are getting that figure from.

U.S. dollars in circulation outside the country.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html

Actually, it looks closer to 700 billion these days.

I don’t think Peter Schiff is totally wrong. He was obviously right about the housing bubble. But it looks like he put his clients money in the gold, oil and China bubble instead.

And just because he called the housing bubble (Stevie Wonder could have seen that coming); don’t think he got everything else spot on.

I keep hearing this talk of severe inflation, I just don’t see any evidence of it other than in hindsight (high housing prices). *Everything* is collapsing around the world. My ETF tracker doesn’t show a *single* long fund on the first page for the year. Every single one is short.

That is deflation personified.

And as long as the dollar stays strong and I keep my job, I’m fine with this.

Remember, my position is that the hyper-inflationary credit-bubble already happened. Its in the process of a deflationary collapse and will continue for years. All Bernanke can do is refill the banks coffers to replace bad loans. He can’t force the banks to lend and can’t make the consumers borrow.

He also can’t fix the credit score of all those FB’ers or wipe their bad debt and back taxes off the books.

The only way he could cause hyper-inflation would be if the Fed just started printing money and giving it out willy-nilly. I understand that may be the end-game for Helicopter Ben, but I remain skeptical.

[kewp]

kewp, what amounts to $500 billion? The total of writedowns, or the potential amount of tsunami flood back? I’m not sure what you mean, or where you are getting that figure from.

U.S. dollars in circulation outside the country.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html

Actually, it looks closer to 700 billion these days.

I don’t think Peter Schiff is totally wrong. He was obviously right about the housing bubble. But it looks like he put his clients money in the gold, oil and China bubble instead.

And just because he called the housing bubble (Stevie Wonder could have seen that coming); don’t think he got everything else spot on.

I keep hearing this talk of severe inflation, I just don’t see any evidence of it other than in hindsight (high housing prices). *Everything* is collapsing around the world. My ETF tracker doesn’t show a *single* long fund on the first page for the year. Every single one is short.

That is deflation personified.

And as long as the dollar stays strong and I keep my job, I’m fine with this.

Remember, my position is that the hyper-inflationary credit-bubble already happened. Its in the process of a deflationary collapse and will continue for years. All Bernanke can do is refill the banks coffers to replace bad loans. He can’t force the banks to lend and can’t make the consumers borrow.

He also can’t fix the credit score of all those FB’ers or wipe their bad debt and back taxes off the books.

The only way he could cause hyper-inflation would be if the Fed just started printing money and giving it out willy-nilly. I understand that may be the end-game for Helicopter Ben, but I remain skeptical.

[kewp]

kewp, what amounts to $500 billion? The total of writedowns, or the potential amount of tsunami flood back? I’m not sure what you mean, or where you are getting that figure from.

U.S. dollars in circulation outside the country.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html

Actually, it looks closer to 700 billion these days.

I don’t think Peter Schiff is totally wrong. He was obviously right about the housing bubble. But it looks like he put his clients money in the gold, oil and China bubble instead.

And just because he called the housing bubble (Stevie Wonder could have seen that coming); don’t think he got everything else spot on.

I keep hearing this talk of severe inflation, I just don’t see any evidence of it other than in hindsight (high housing prices). *Everything* is collapsing around the world. My ETF tracker doesn’t show a *single* long fund on the first page for the year. Every single one is short.

That is deflation personified.

And as long as the dollar stays strong and I keep my job, I’m fine with this.

Remember, my position is that the hyper-inflationary credit-bubble already happened. Its in the process of a deflationary collapse and will continue for years. All Bernanke can do is refill the banks coffers to replace bad loans. He can’t force the banks to lend and can’t make the consumers borrow.

He also can’t fix the credit score of all those FB’ers or wipe their bad debt and back taxes off the books.

The only way he could cause hyper-inflation would be if the Fed just started printing money and giving it out willy-nilly. I understand that may be the end-game for Helicopter Ben, but I remain skeptical.

[kewp]

kewp, what amounts to $500 billion? The total of writedowns, or the potential amount of tsunami flood back? I’m not sure what you mean, or where you are getting that figure from.

U.S. dollars in circulation outside the country.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html

Actually, it looks closer to 700 billion these days.

I don’t think Peter Schiff is totally wrong. He was obviously right about the housing bubble. But it looks like he put his clients money in the gold, oil and China bubble instead.

And just because he called the housing bubble (Stevie Wonder could have seen that coming); don’t think he got everything else spot on.

I keep hearing this talk of severe inflation, I just don’t see any evidence of it other than in hindsight (high housing prices). *Everything* is collapsing around the world. My ETF tracker doesn’t show a *single* long fund on the first page for the year. Every single one is short.

That is deflation personified.

And as long as the dollar stays strong and I keep my job, I’m fine with this.

Remember, my position is that the hyper-inflationary credit-bubble already happened. Its in the process of a deflationary collapse and will continue for years. All Bernanke can do is refill the banks coffers to replace bad loans. He can’t force the banks to lend and can’t make the consumers borrow.

He also can’t fix the credit score of all those FB’ers or wipe their bad debt and back taxes off the books.

The only way he could cause hyper-inflation would be if the Fed just started printing money and giving it out willy-nilly. I understand that may be the end-game for Helicopter Ben, but I remain skeptical.

[kewp]

kewp, what amounts to $500 billion? The total of writedowns, or the potential amount of tsunami flood back? I’m not sure what you mean, or where you are getting that figure from.

U.S. dollars in circulation outside the country.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/fed01.html

Actually, it looks closer to 700 billion these days.

I don’t think Peter Schiff is totally wrong. He was obviously right about the housing bubble. But it looks like he put his clients money in the gold, oil and China bubble instead.

And just because he called the housing bubble (Stevie Wonder could have seen that coming); don’t think he got everything else spot on.

I keep hearing this talk of severe inflation, I just don’t see any evidence of it other than in hindsight (high housing prices). *Everything* is collapsing around the world. My ETF tracker doesn’t show a *single* long fund on the first page for the year. Every single one is short.

That is deflation personified.

And as long as the dollar stays strong and I keep my job, I’m fine with this.

Remember, my position is that the hyper-inflationary credit-bubble already happened. Its in the process of a deflationary collapse and will continue for years. All Bernanke can do is refill the banks coffers to replace bad loans. He can’t force the banks to lend and can’t make the consumers borrow.

He also can’t fix the credit score of all those FB’ers or wipe their bad debt and back taxes off the books.

The only way he could cause hyper-inflation would be if the Fed just started printing money and giving it out willy-nilly. I understand that may be the end-game for Helicopter Ben, but I remain skeptical.

[Arraya]

Kewp-Oil plummeted because demand did. Schiff had his clients put money in oil and gold because he thought we would be hyper-inflationary now, which we are not. He does not understand the geological restraints on oil which are never going away ever. Actually if China and the US ever ramp up both economies again oil will knock it back down. A resource constrained world is a much different dynamic that the world has ever known and china and the us can’t “grow” without massive alternatives in place, which are not on the horizon. And in a sever downturn not likely to be developed.

The only reason the dollar has strength is because of deflationary forces causing essentially a global margin call.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3242927/Dollar-roars-back-as-global-debts-are-called-in.html

This has been the dollar “carry trade”, conducted on a huge scale with high leverage. Now the process has reversed abruptly as debt deflation – or “deleveraging” – engulfs world markets. The dollars must be repaid.

Hence a wild scramble for Greenbacks which has shaken the global currency system and shattered assumptions about the way the world works. The unwinding drama reached a crescendo yesterday as the euro fell to $1.28, down from $1.61 in July. The slide in the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Korean won, among others, has been stunning.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said US mutual funds, pension funds, and life insurers invested a big chunk of their $22 trillion (£13.5 trillion) of assets overseas to earn a higher yield during the boom. They are now in hot retreat as the emerging market story unravels. “There is a complete rethink going on. People are bringing their money back home,” he said.and because it’s the reserve currency which is under threat

As well as being the reserve currency, which is under threat.

Gold is a different story. The physical price is much higher than the paper for one thing. Another is, in a hyper-inflationary state or the dollar losing reserve currency status would cause gold to soar which will eventually happen.

[Arraya]

Kewp-Oil plummeted because demand did. Schiff had his clients put money in oil and gold because he thought we would be hyper-inflationary now, which we are not. He does not understand the geological restraints on oil which are never going away ever. Actually if China and the US ever ramp up both economies again oil will knock it back down. A resource constrained world is a much different dynamic that the world has ever known and china and the us can’t “grow” without massive alternatives in place, which are not on the horizon. And in a sever downturn not likely to be developed.

The only reason the dollar has strength is because of deflationary forces causing essentially a global margin call.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3242927/Dollar-roars-back-as-global-debts-are-called-in.html

This has been the dollar “carry trade”, conducted on a huge scale with high leverage. Now the process has reversed abruptly as debt deflation – or “deleveraging” – engulfs world markets. The dollars must be repaid.

Hence a wild scramble for Greenbacks which has shaken the global currency system and shattered assumptions about the way the world works. The unwinding drama reached a crescendo yesterday as the euro fell to $1.28, down from $1.61 in July. The slide in the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Korean won, among others, has been stunning.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said US mutual funds, pension funds, and life insurers invested a big chunk of their $22 trillion (£13.5 trillion) of assets overseas to earn a higher yield during the boom. They are now in hot retreat as the emerging market story unravels. “There is a complete rethink going on. People are bringing their money back home,” he said.and because it’s the reserve currency which is under threat

As well as being the reserve currency, which is under threat.

Gold is a different story. The physical price is much higher than the paper for one thing. Another is, in a hyper-inflationary state or the dollar losing reserve currency status would cause gold to soar which will eventually happen.

[Arraya]

Kewp-Oil plummeted because demand did. Schiff had his clients put money in oil and gold because he thought we would be hyper-inflationary now, which we are not. He does not understand the geological restraints on oil which are never going away ever. Actually if China and the US ever ramp up both economies again oil will knock it back down. A resource constrained world is a much different dynamic that the world has ever known and china and the us can’t “grow” without massive alternatives in place, which are not on the horizon. And in a sever downturn not likely to be developed.

The only reason the dollar has strength is because of deflationary forces causing essentially a global margin call.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3242927/Dollar-roars-back-as-global-debts-are-called-in.html

This has been the dollar “carry trade”, conducted on a huge scale with high leverage. Now the process has reversed abruptly as debt deflation – or “deleveraging” – engulfs world markets. The dollars must be repaid.

Hence a wild scramble for Greenbacks which has shaken the global currency system and shattered assumptions about the way the world works. The unwinding drama reached a crescendo yesterday as the euro fell to $1.28, down from $1.61 in July. The slide in the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Korean won, among others, has been stunning.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said US mutual funds, pension funds, and life insurers invested a big chunk of their $22 trillion (£13.5 trillion) of assets overseas to earn a higher yield during the boom. They are now in hot retreat as the emerging market story unravels. “There is a complete rethink going on. People are bringing their money back home,” he said.and because it’s the reserve currency which is under threat

As well as being the reserve currency, which is under threat.

Gold is a different story. The physical price is much higher than the paper for one thing. Another is, in a hyper-inflationary state or the dollar losing reserve currency status would cause gold to soar which will eventually happen.

[Arraya]

Kewp-Oil plummeted because demand did. Schiff had his clients put money in oil and gold because he thought we would be hyper-inflationary now, which we are not. He does not understand the geological restraints on oil which are never going away ever. Actually if China and the US ever ramp up both economies again oil will knock it back down. A resource constrained world is a much different dynamic that the world has ever known and china and the us can’t “grow” without massive alternatives in place, which are not on the horizon. And in a sever downturn not likely to be developed.

The only reason the dollar has strength is because of deflationary forces causing essentially a global margin call.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3242927/Dollar-roars-back-as-global-debts-are-called-in.html

This has been the dollar “carry trade”, conducted on a huge scale with high leverage. Now the process has reversed abruptly as debt deflation – or “deleveraging” – engulfs world markets. The dollars must be repaid.

Hence a wild scramble for Greenbacks which has shaken the global currency system and shattered assumptions about the way the world works. The unwinding drama reached a crescendo yesterday as the euro fell to $1.28, down from $1.61 in July. The slide in the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Korean won, among others, has been stunning.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said US mutual funds, pension funds, and life insurers invested a big chunk of their $22 trillion (£13.5 trillion) of assets overseas to earn a higher yield during the boom. They are now in hot retreat as the emerging market story unravels. “There is a complete rethink going on. People are bringing their money back home,” he said.and because it’s the reserve currency which is under threat

As well as being the reserve currency, which is under threat.

Gold is a different story. The physical price is much higher than the paper for one thing. Another is, in a hyper-inflationary state or the dollar losing reserve currency status would cause gold to soar which will eventually happen.

[Arraya]

Kewp-Oil plummeted because demand did. Schiff had his clients put money in oil and gold because he thought we would be hyper-inflationary now, which we are not. He does not understand the geological restraints on oil which are never going away ever. Actually if China and the US ever ramp up both economies again oil will knock it back down. A resource constrained world is a much different dynamic that the world has ever known and china and the us can’t “grow” without massive alternatives in place, which are not on the horizon. And in a sever downturn not likely to be developed.

The only reason the dollar has strength is because of deflationary forces causing essentially a global margin call.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3242927/Dollar-roars-back-as-global-debts-are-called-in.html

This has been the dollar “carry trade”, conducted on a huge scale with high leverage. Now the process has reversed abruptly as debt deflation – or “deleveraging” – engulfs world markets. The dollars must be repaid.

Hence a wild scramble for Greenbacks which has shaken the global currency system and shattered assumptions about the way the world works. The unwinding drama reached a crescendo yesterday as the euro fell to $1.28, down from $1.61 in July. The slide in the Brazilian real, the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and the Korean won, among others, has been stunning.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said US mutual funds, pension funds, and life insurers invested a big chunk of their $22 trillion (£13.5 trillion) of assets overseas to earn a higher yield during the boom. They are now in hot retreat as the emerging market story unravels. “There is a complete rethink going on. People are bringing their money back home,” he said.and because it’s the reserve currency which is under threat

As well as being the reserve currency, which is under threat.

Gold is a different story. The physical price is much higher than the paper for one thing. Another is, in a hyper-inflationary state or the dollar losing reserve currency status would cause gold to soar which will eventually happen.

[Carl Veritas]

Bureau Of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) website
has a cpi inflation calculator under the heading Inflation & Prices. You can enter dates and it calculates the dollars debasement rate. Here is one result from the calculator—-

1913 — $1.00

is the equivalent of

2008 — $22.10

Perhaps the money supply contraction and expansion we experience are the shorter term result of Central Bank monetary policies, on the path of persistent loss of purchasing power.

[Carl Veritas]

Bureau Of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) website
has a cpi inflation calculator under the heading Inflation & Prices. You can enter dates and it calculates the dollars debasement rate. Here is one result from the calculator—-

1913 — $1.00

is the equivalent of

2008 — $22.10

Perhaps the money supply contraction and expansion we experience are the shorter term result of Central Bank monetary policies, on the path of persistent loss of purchasing power.

[Carl Veritas]

Bureau Of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) website
has a cpi inflation calculator under the heading Inflation & Prices. You can enter dates and it calculates the dollars debasement rate. Here is one result from the calculator—-

1913 — $1.00

is the equivalent of

2008 — $22.10

Perhaps the money supply contraction and expansion we experience are the shorter term result of Central Bank monetary policies, on the path of persistent loss of purchasing power.

[Carl Veritas]

Bureau Of Labor Statistics (www.bls.gov) website
has a cpi inflation calculator under the heading Inflation & Prices. You can enter dates and it calculates the dollars debasement rate. Here is one result from the calculator—-

1913 — $1.00

is the equivalent of

2008 — $22.10

Perhaps the money supply contraction and expansion we experience are the shorter term result of Central Bank monetary policies, on the path of persistent loss of purchasing power.

[Author]

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