Creating a sense of urgency. You better buy now!

[AK]

From what I’ve seen there is a bunch of stealth REO inventory ready to come on the market … some of it assigned to brokers, signs up at some of them, but none of it officially listed yet.

I’m chomping at the bit.

[SD Realtor]

Ox if you look at LCV there are plenty of 900 ish homes there. For instance on Camino Serbal alone there are several listings at 900 ish and the recent CLOSED sale on that street is 850k…

Let me ask you this. Did your agent show you CLOSED SALES to price your home or did they show you ACTIVE LISTINGS. If you carefully review the data it is always best to price your home based on CLOSED SALES, (homes that have actually sold) rather then based on “what everyone else is asking”.

Also if the CLOSED SALES you used are 6 months or a year old then you should depreciate them to accomodate for the market conditions. Another thing you can do as a homeowner is to pay a few hundred bucks for an appraisal.

[SD Realtor]

Ox if you look at LCV there are plenty of 900 ish homes there. For instance on Camino Serbal alone there are several listings at 900 ish and the recent CLOSED sale on that street is 850k…

Let me ask you this. Did your agent show you CLOSED SALES to price your home or did they show you ACTIVE LISTINGS. If you carefully review the data it is always best to price your home based on CLOSED SALES, (homes that have actually sold) rather then based on “what everyone else is asking”.

Also if the CLOSED SALES you used are 6 months or a year old then you should depreciate them to accomodate for the market conditions. Another thing you can do as a homeowner is to pay a few hundred bucks for an appraisal.

[SD Realtor]

Ox if you look at LCV there are plenty of 900 ish homes there. For instance on Camino Serbal alone there are several listings at 900 ish and the recent CLOSED sale on that street is 850k…

Let me ask you this. Did your agent show you CLOSED SALES to price your home or did they show you ACTIVE LISTINGS. If you carefully review the data it is always best to price your home based on CLOSED SALES, (homes that have actually sold) rather then based on “what everyone else is asking”.

Also if the CLOSED SALES you used are 6 months or a year old then you should depreciate them to accomodate for the market conditions. Another thing you can do as a homeowner is to pay a few hundred bucks for an appraisal.

[SD Realtor]

Ox if you look at LCV there are plenty of 900 ish homes there. For instance on Camino Serbal alone there are several listings at 900 ish and the recent CLOSED sale on that street is 850k…

Let me ask you this. Did your agent show you CLOSED SALES to price your home or did they show you ACTIVE LISTINGS. If you carefully review the data it is always best to price your home based on CLOSED SALES, (homes that have actually sold) rather then based on “what everyone else is asking”.

Also if the CLOSED SALES you used are 6 months or a year old then you should depreciate them to accomodate for the market conditions. Another thing you can do as a homeowner is to pay a few hundred bucks for an appraisal.

[SD Realtor]

Ox if you look at LCV there are plenty of 900 ish homes there. For instance on Camino Serbal alone there are several listings at 900 ish and the recent CLOSED sale on that street is 850k…

Let me ask you this. Did your agent show you CLOSED SALES to price your home or did they show you ACTIVE LISTINGS. If you carefully review the data it is always best to price your home based on CLOSED SALES, (homes that have actually sold) rather then based on “what everyone else is asking”.

Also if the CLOSED SALES you used are 6 months or a year old then you should depreciate them to accomodate for the market conditions. Another thing you can do as a homeowner is to pay a few hundred bucks for an appraisal.

[pepsi]

[quote=Oxford]My $929k, LCV home has been on the market for three weeks with lots of traffic and no offers. [/quote]

I think you should remove your listing from the market if you are not in a must-sell situation, and hold for 5+ years.

The way I see it, the withdraw from Iraq and the cancellation of “cold war” weapon orders will make an immediate dent to San Diego economy this summer to the next year (Fall 2010).
And for late 2010 and 2011, some those people who had been responsible and saved, will draw on their savings and hope for the best. Then eventually (my prediction: fall 2011 to spring 2012), the national debts, desperated hosing market and increased CA tax will drive them out of CA.
They will leave a lot of high middle end SFH on the market (500K – 900K).
The SD housing will not see sales with 10+% (price 2+%) increase in summer before 2015, and the peak price will never be seen before 2020.

OK, that is such a bold prediction, so I must have this to cover my ass:

Unless we have 5+% inflation

If China/Japan keep buying our paper, Obama will keep spending, and we will be able to keep the rate low and banking system stable.

If not, we will see high inflation on commodity price (15+%) which will translate to 7+% inflation and he will not be re-elected, if the inflation happened before 2011. And this will lead to a Republican strike back in 2012 to 2016, which will hike rates and we will see 10+% on jumbo loans.

So, will they stop buying our papers ?
I think Japan will have to, but China may not.
Japan has limited domestic market and they have to sell to US (and own our greenback and bonds).
China, on the other hand, will try (and is trying) to start produce things for their 1B farmers. And that means we may not see $10 toaster in Wal Mart soon. Without China buying our bonds, either our domestic institutes have to step up (and lose their capital to real production invetement), or to see rate hike. Either way, we will see inflation.

So, the question is “when” china will start selling to themselves in large scale. It is just starting…..

So, Oxford, just wait five years and see if the inflation catch up and maybe you can sell your house for 1M+ in 2013

[pepsi]

[quote=Oxford]My $929k, LCV home has been on the market for three weeks with lots of traffic and no offers. [/quote]

I think you should remove your listing from the market if you are not in a must-sell situation, and hold for 5+ years.

The way I see it, the withdraw from Iraq and the cancellation of “cold war” weapon orders will make an immediate dent to San Diego economy this summer to the next year (Fall 2010).
And for late 2010 and 2011, some those people who had been responsible and saved, will draw on their savings and hope for the best. Then eventually (my prediction: fall 2011 to spring 2012), the national debts, desperated hosing market and increased CA tax will drive them out of CA.
They will leave a lot of high middle end SFH on the market (500K – 900K).
The SD housing will not see sales with 10+% (price 2+%) increase in summer before 2015, and the peak price will never be seen before 2020.

OK, that is such a bold prediction, so I must have this to cover my ass:

Unless we have 5+% inflation

If China/Japan keep buying our paper, Obama will keep spending, and we will be able to keep the rate low and banking system stable.

If not, we will see high inflation on commodity price (15+%) which will translate to 7+% inflation and he will not be re-elected, if the inflation happened before 2011. And this will lead to a Republican strike back in 2012 to 2016, which will hike rates and we will see 10+% on jumbo loans.

So, will they stop buying our papers ?
I think Japan will have to, but China may not.
Japan has limited domestic market and they have to sell to US (and own our greenback and bonds).
China, on the other hand, will try (and is trying) to start produce things for their 1B farmers. And that means we may not see $10 toaster in Wal Mart soon. Without China buying our bonds, either our domestic institutes have to step up (and lose their capital to real production invetement), or to see rate hike. Either way, we will see inflation.

So, the question is “when” china will start selling to themselves in large scale. It is just starting…..

So, Oxford, just wait five years and see if the inflation catch up and maybe you can sell your house for 1M+ in 2013

[pepsi]

[quote=Oxford]My $929k, LCV home has been on the market for three weeks with lots of traffic and no offers. [/quote]

I think you should remove your listing from the market if you are not in a must-sell situation, and hold for 5+ years.

The way I see it, the withdraw from Iraq and the cancellation of “cold war” weapon orders will make an immediate dent to San Diego economy this summer to the next year (Fall 2010).
And for late 2010 and 2011, some those people who had been responsible and saved, will draw on their savings and hope for the best. Then eventually (my prediction: fall 2011 to spring 2012), the national debts, desperated hosing market and increased CA tax will drive them out of CA.
They will leave a lot of high middle end SFH on the market (500K – 900K).
The SD housing will not see sales with 10+% (price 2+%) increase in summer before 2015, and the peak price will never be seen before 2020.

OK, that is such a bold prediction, so I must have this to cover my ass:

Unless we have 5+% inflation

If China/Japan keep buying our paper, Obama will keep spending, and we will be able to keep the rate low and banking system stable.

If not, we will see high inflation on commodity price (15+%) which will translate to 7+% inflation and he will not be re-elected, if the inflation happened before 2011. And this will lead to a Republican strike back in 2012 to 2016, which will hike rates and we will see 10+% on jumbo loans.

So, will they stop buying our papers ?
I think Japan will have to, but China may not.
Japan has limited domestic market and they have to sell to US (and own our greenback and bonds).
China, on the other hand, will try (and is trying) to start produce things for their 1B farmers. And that means we may not see $10 toaster in Wal Mart soon. Without China buying our bonds, either our domestic institutes have to step up (and lose their capital to real production invetement), or to see rate hike. Either way, we will see inflation.

So, the question is “when” china will start selling to themselves in large scale. It is just starting…..

So, Oxford, just wait five years and see if the inflation catch up and maybe you can sell your house for 1M+ in 2013

[pepsi]

[quote=Oxford]My $929k, LCV home has been on the market for three weeks with lots of traffic and no offers. [/quote]

I think you should remove your listing from the market if you are not in a must-sell situation, and hold for 5+ years.

The way I see it, the withdraw from Iraq and the cancellation of “cold war” weapon orders will make an immediate dent to San Diego economy this summer to the next year (Fall 2010).
And for late 2010 and 2011, some those people who had been responsible and saved, will draw on their savings and hope for the best. Then eventually (my prediction: fall 2011 to spring 2012), the national debts, desperated hosing market and increased CA tax will drive them out of CA.
They will leave a lot of high middle end SFH on the market (500K – 900K).
The SD housing will not see sales with 10+% (price 2+%) increase in summer before 2015, and the peak price will never be seen before 2020.

OK, that is such a bold prediction, so I must have this to cover my ass:

Unless we have 5+% inflation

If China/Japan keep buying our paper, Obama will keep spending, and we will be able to keep the rate low and banking system stable.

If not, we will see high inflation on commodity price (15+%) which will translate to 7+% inflation and he will not be re-elected, if the inflation happened before 2011. And this will lead to a Republican strike back in 2012 to 2016, which will hike rates and we will see 10+% on jumbo loans.

So, will they stop buying our papers ?
I think Japan will have to, but China may not.
Japan has limited domestic market and they have to sell to US (and own our greenback and bonds).
China, on the other hand, will try (and is trying) to start produce things for their 1B farmers. And that means we may not see $10 toaster in Wal Mart soon. Without China buying our bonds, either our domestic institutes have to step up (and lose their capital to real production invetement), or to see rate hike. Either way, we will see inflation.

So, the question is “when” china will start selling to themselves in large scale. It is just starting…..

So, Oxford, just wait five years and see if the inflation catch up and maybe you can sell your house for 1M+ in 2013

[pepsi]

[quote=Oxford]My $929k, LCV home has been on the market for three weeks with lots of traffic and no offers. [/quote]

I think you should remove your listing from the market if you are not in a must-sell situation, and hold for 5+ years.

The way I see it, the withdraw from Iraq and the cancellation of “cold war” weapon orders will make an immediate dent to San Diego economy this summer to the next year (Fall 2010).
And for late 2010 and 2011, some those people who had been responsible and saved, will draw on their savings and hope for the best. Then eventually (my prediction: fall 2011 to spring 2012), the national debts, desperated hosing market and increased CA tax will drive them out of CA.
They will leave a lot of high middle end SFH on the market (500K – 900K).
The SD housing will not see sales with 10+% (price 2+%) increase in summer before 2015, and the peak price will never be seen before 2020.

OK, that is such a bold prediction, so I must have this to cover my ass:

Unless we have 5+% inflation

If China/Japan keep buying our paper, Obama will keep spending, and we will be able to keep the rate low and banking system stable.

If not, we will see high inflation on commodity price (15+%) which will translate to 7+% inflation and he will not be re-elected, if the inflation happened before 2011. And this will lead to a Republican strike back in 2012 to 2016, which will hike rates and we will see 10+% on jumbo loans.

So, will they stop buying our papers ?
I think Japan will have to, but China may not.
Japan has limited domestic market and they have to sell to US (and own our greenback and bonds).
China, on the other hand, will try (and is trying) to start produce things for their 1B farmers. And that means we may not see $10 toaster in Wal Mart soon. Without China buying our bonds, either our domestic institutes have to step up (and lose their capital to real production invetement), or to see rate hike. Either way, we will see inflation.

So, the question is “when” china will start selling to themselves in large scale. It is just starting…..

So, Oxford, just wait five years and see if the inflation catch up and maybe you can sell your house for 1M+ in 2013

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that using inflation as a mechanism to catch up with a home valuation is a great idea.

To do so is to make an assumption that there will be easy money to cope with the inflationary environment. To think that home valuations will rise with inflation when there could be mortgage rates at double digit values is an assumption I would reconsider.

I do not see house valuations rising with inflation in such an environment. Will they rise rise? yes. How much will depend on the environment we are in. Also if it all scales then the value of Ox’s dollars will scale as well won’t they? So as Ox may get more dollars for his home, those dollars are worth less. Consequently the home (timber frame?) that Ox wants to build will cost more for materials, labor, property tax, and who know what our tax environment will look like from the federal and state levels.

Just playing devils advocate but I think it is not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that using inflation as a mechanism to catch up with a home valuation is a great idea.

To do so is to make an assumption that there will be easy money to cope with the inflationary environment. To think that home valuations will rise with inflation when there could be mortgage rates at double digit values is an assumption I would reconsider.

I do not see house valuations rising with inflation in such an environment. Will they rise rise? yes. How much will depend on the environment we are in. Also if it all scales then the value of Ox’s dollars will scale as well won’t they? So as Ox may get more dollars for his home, those dollars are worth less. Consequently the home (timber frame?) that Ox wants to build will cost more for materials, labor, property tax, and who know what our tax environment will look like from the federal and state levels.

Just playing devils advocate but I think it is not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that using inflation as a mechanism to catch up with a home valuation is a great idea.

To do so is to make an assumption that there will be easy money to cope with the inflationary environment. To think that home valuations will rise with inflation when there could be mortgage rates at double digit values is an assumption I would reconsider.

I do not see house valuations rising with inflation in such an environment. Will they rise rise? yes. How much will depend on the environment we are in. Also if it all scales then the value of Ox’s dollars will scale as well won’t they? So as Ox may get more dollars for his home, those dollars are worth less. Consequently the home (timber frame?) that Ox wants to build will cost more for materials, labor, property tax, and who know what our tax environment will look like from the federal and state levels.

Just playing devils advocate but I think it is not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

[SD Realtor]

I am not so sure that using inflation as a mechanism to catch up with a home valuation is a great idea.

To do so is to make an assumption that there will be easy money to cope with the inflationary environment. To think that home valuations will rise with inflation when there could be mortgage rates at double digit values is an assumption I would reconsider.

I do not see house valuations rising with inflation in such an environment. Will they rise rise? yes. How much will depend on the environment we are in. Also if it all scales then the value of Ox’s dollars will scale as well won’t they? So as Ox may get more dollars for his home, those dollars are worth less. Consequently the home (timber frame?) that Ox wants to build will cost more for materials, labor, property tax, and who know what our tax environment will look like from the federal and state levels.

Just playing devils advocate but I think it is not as clear cut as you make it out to be.

[Author]

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