Coworkers argument that house prices won’t fall…

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Does this person believe that prices have NOT already fallen ?

Just save your breath and drop the newspaper on their desk when it becomes more obvious. My guess is that even the median price will show a significant decline by October or so.

[GoUSC]

He doesn’t deny prices have fallen. His point was that we aren’t going to see a similar correction to the early 90’s because at that point there was a huge drop in demand caused by employment lose and people moving out of town.

[GoUSC]

He doesn’t deny prices have fallen. His point was that we aren’t going to see a similar correction to the early 90’s because at that point there was a huge drop in demand caused by employment lose and people moving out of town.

[GoUSC]

He doesn’t deny prices have fallen. His point was that we aren’t going to see a similar correction to the early 90’s because at that point there was a huge drop in demand caused by employment lose and people moving out of town.

[golfproz]

There’s one fatal flaw in your friends logic. The market is not set by the people who are NOT selling there homes. It’s set by the folks that are selling. All those FBs and REOs are what’s gonna set future home values. Besides, at this point there is already enough hard data to prove he’s mistaken.

[golfproz]

There’s one fatal flaw in your friends logic. The market is not set by the people who are NOT selling there homes. It’s set by the folks that are selling. All those FBs and REOs are what’s gonna set future home values. Besides, at this point there is already enough hard data to prove he’s mistaken.

[golfproz]

There’s one fatal flaw in your friends logic. The market is not set by the people who are NOT selling there homes. It’s set by the folks that are selling. All those FBs and REOs are what’s gonna set future home values. Besides, at this point there is already enough hard data to prove he’s mistaken.

[garysears]

I submit this strange case from Spring Valley for your viewing pleasure:

1628 PRESIOCA ST #23 91977 2/1 $160,000
1628 Presioca St #17 91977 2/1 $283,000

The past sales history makes #23 almost certainly a short sale. It could be a pipedream. The bank would probably laugh. The previous sale was recorded around $250K. But I can say the low short sale listing are driving down price expectations. I can see almost daily the prices creeping down. I know I’m talking about El Cajon/ Spring Valley condos and not S.D. SFRs, but this will have an eventual effect I bet.

Check out Stone Ridge Condos at 5707 Baltimore Drive in La Mesa. I found the sales flyer in my car today for their phase one release. I don’t know if they’ve sold any units. Looks like they have slashed prices 40K across the board. Was $365K and up now $320K and up. That was a big reduction considering they just started selling phase one in the last month I believe.

[garysears]

I submit this strange case from Spring Valley for your viewing pleasure:

1628 PRESIOCA ST #23 91977 2/1 $160,000
1628 Presioca St #17 91977 2/1 $283,000

The past sales history makes #23 almost certainly a short sale. It could be a pipedream. The bank would probably laugh. The previous sale was recorded around $250K. But I can say the low short sale listing are driving down price expectations. I can see almost daily the prices creeping down. I know I’m talking about El Cajon/ Spring Valley condos and not S.D. SFRs, but this will have an eventual effect I bet.

Check out Stone Ridge Condos at 5707 Baltimore Drive in La Mesa. I found the sales flyer in my car today for their phase one release. I don’t know if they’ve sold any units. Looks like they have slashed prices 40K across the board. Was $365K and up now $320K and up. That was a big reduction considering they just started selling phase one in the last month I believe.

[garysears]

I submit this strange case from Spring Valley for your viewing pleasure:

1628 PRESIOCA ST #23 91977 2/1 $160,000
1628 Presioca St #17 91977 2/1 $283,000

The past sales history makes #23 almost certainly a short sale. It could be a pipedream. The bank would probably laugh. The previous sale was recorded around $250K. But I can say the low short sale listing are driving down price expectations. I can see almost daily the prices creeping down. I know I’m talking about El Cajon/ Spring Valley condos and not S.D. SFRs, but this will have an eventual effect I bet.

Check out Stone Ridge Condos at 5707 Baltimore Drive in La Mesa. I found the sales flyer in my car today for their phase one release. I don’t know if they’ve sold any units. Looks like they have slashed prices 40K across the board. Was $365K and up now $320K and up. That was a big reduction considering they just started selling phase one in the last month I believe.

[Bugs]

Nobody likes to hear you told them so. I usually keep my mouth shut about this whole thing unless someone asks, and then I start throwing data at them. After 10 minutes of that I really don’t need to express an opinion.

Do you remember what the Bulls’ favorite argument was a couple years back when we were talking about this happening? Every time their “this is a new paradigm”, “everyone wants to live here”, “there’s a housing shortage”, and “we’re adding jobs” arguments all ran into a wall the one thing we could always count on them saying was this:

“Homes won’t lose value because it hasn’t happened yet.”

Brilliant, huh?

Yeah, well guess what – this scenario has reversed and now it’s our turn. If your guy isn’t listening to reason the only thing you have to say is:

“Pricing is already in decline and there’s no sign that trend is going to stop any time soon.”

Put the burden on them to show you otherwise and watch them squirm. Just make sure you do it nicely, or it comes off as gloating. It’s not cool to kick a debt slave when they’re down.

[Bugs]

Nobody likes to hear you told them so. I usually keep my mouth shut about this whole thing unless someone asks, and then I start throwing data at them. After 10 minutes of that I really don’t need to express an opinion.

Do you remember what the Bulls’ favorite argument was a couple years back when we were talking about this happening? Every time their “this is a new paradigm”, “everyone wants to live here”, “there’s a housing shortage”, and “we’re adding jobs” arguments all ran into a wall the one thing we could always count on them saying was this:

“Homes won’t lose value because it hasn’t happened yet.”

Brilliant, huh?

Yeah, well guess what – this scenario has reversed and now it’s our turn. If your guy isn’t listening to reason the only thing you have to say is:

“Pricing is already in decline and there’s no sign that trend is going to stop any time soon.”

Put the burden on them to show you otherwise and watch them squirm. Just make sure you do it nicely, or it comes off as gloating. It’s not cool to kick a debt slave when they’re down.

[Bugs]

Nobody likes to hear you told them so. I usually keep my mouth shut about this whole thing unless someone asks, and then I start throwing data at them. After 10 minutes of that I really don’t need to express an opinion.

Do you remember what the Bulls’ favorite argument was a couple years back when we were talking about this happening? Every time their “this is a new paradigm”, “everyone wants to live here”, “there’s a housing shortage”, and “we’re adding jobs” arguments all ran into a wall the one thing we could always count on them saying was this:

“Homes won’t lose value because it hasn’t happened yet.”

Brilliant, huh?

Yeah, well guess what – this scenario has reversed and now it’s our turn. If your guy isn’t listening to reason the only thing you have to say is:

“Pricing is already in decline and there’s no sign that trend is going to stop any time soon.”

Put the burden on them to show you otherwise and watch them squirm. Just make sure you do it nicely, or it comes off as gloating. It’s not cool to kick a debt slave when they’re down.

[temeculaguy]

He’s right it won’t be like the 90’s, it will be so much worse he will wish for the 90’s. The 90’s and today are different because there was no widespread use of toxic mortgages, the norm was 20% down and 33% income to housing expense ratio. That norm will be returning shortly and the effect of allowing a market to swing that far off course and then be brought back, well, we don’t know because it has never happened. I can bet it won’t soften the blow, how much harder is anyone’s guess. Had this market peaked in 2003 we would be in for a 1995, probably pulling out of it right now, too late for that now.

[temeculaguy]

He’s right it won’t be like the 90’s, it will be so much worse he will wish for the 90’s. The 90’s and today are different because there was no widespread use of toxic mortgages, the norm was 20% down and 33% income to housing expense ratio. That norm will be returning shortly and the effect of allowing a market to swing that far off course and then be brought back, well, we don’t know because it has never happened. I can bet it won’t soften the blow, how much harder is anyone’s guess. Had this market peaked in 2003 we would be in for a 1995, probably pulling out of it right now, too late for that now.

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