Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market

[FlyerInHi]

So how come people in Scandinavia don’t get married and don’t have many kids. Maybe it’s an American education thing. There is something rotten in USA

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita]But seriously, this would pencil out pretty nicely if this passes.

I think if I stopped working at my regular job, I can massage my passive income to just below $100k/year in order to meet the income requirement by taking on more operating cost (like buying more rentals that cashflow worse).

Then the government will give our family roughly $6000/month for just sitting on our ass. That’s like $172k/year for doing nothing. I have no debt, no loan, and now with reduced income, pay even lower taxes and qualify for other benefits. This might be the ticket to my even much earlier retirement. I think I can live on $172k/year especially when $73k/year is a government guarantee that gets paid for doing absolutely nothing.

And this would help out landlords because then everyone should be able to pay for rent. Section 8 no longer needed…

When is the vote on this suppose to happen?[/quote]

Sounds intriguing, but keep your day job

[Coronita]

https://www.cnn.com/style/article/cities-design-coronavirus/index.html

“Nearly a third of Americans are considering relocating to less crowded places because of Covid-19”

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=Coronita]https://www.cnn.com/style/article/cities-design-coronavirus/index.html

“Nearly a third of Americans are considering relocating to less crowded places because of Covid-19″[/quote]

I saw that. It was a long article that’s was all over…. But if the headline is accurate, people will sell in LA or Orange Country to move to Spokane and Waco? Sounds like the same past exodus of folks who couldn’t hang in Cali.

[Coronita]

https://theharrispoll.com/coronavirus-may-prompt-migration-out-of-american-cities/

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=Coronita]https://www.cnn.com/style/article/cities-design-coronavirus/index.html

“Nearly a third of Americans are considering relocating to less crowded places because of Covid-19″[/quote]

I saw that. It was a long article that’s was all over…. But if the headline is accurate, people will sell in LA or Orange Country to move to Spokane and Waco? Sounds like the same past exodus of folks who couldn’t hang in Cali.[/quote]
really LOL, No it means they will move from their downtown condo to the burbs.

[scaredyclassic]

From 1918 to 2020 the trend seems urban

[The-Shoveler]

The last place you want to be during the zombie apocalypse is downtown.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]The last place you want to be during the zombie apocalypse is downtown.[/quote]

It is objectively safer in USA or Hong Kong? I’m sure people are feeling safer in Oklahoma, but they may actually not be safer.

It’s interesting to watch this health crisis evolve.

[svelte]

[quote=scaredyclassic]From 1918 to 2020 the trend seems urban[/quote]

There were a few trends in that 100 years.

In the early 1900s, people left rural for urban.

Post WW2, people left urban and went suburban.

In the last decade or two, there has been an urban revival while suburbs have done just fine also though rural is still decaying. Watch the Daily Woo on Youtube – he travels the back roads of the heartland and films rural communities that are almost nonexistent now in 10-15 min clips. It’s fun to imagine a time when they were bustling with activity. He even did a segment on the town where my father was born – I think the population there is under 50 now, the stores his family shopped in haven’t been open for decades and the buildings are about to fall over under their own weight.

Will CV set off a new movement? Possible but I’m not sure it will be one of significant size.

[Coronita]

I would personally hate living in the city. Too dense, not enough personal space, parking is a bitch and you need to pay for it all the time, high HOA, high cost of food. .No thanks. Being a bachelor in the city is only so fun so many years when you are still young. It gets old really fast. But if it floats people’s boat. all good.

[svelte]

[quote=FlyerInHi] I’m sure people are feeling safer in Oklahoma, but they may actually not be safer.
[/quote]

OK has 270 deaths for 3.9M population. That’s one death for every 14,444 citizens.

CA has 2,119 deaths for 39.5M population. That’s one death for every 18,640 citizens.

Not much of a difference.

[phaster]

FWIW one of the reasons there is building pressure to open up the economy AND keeping downward pressure on the stock market, seems to be the simple fact that various oil storage facilities are basically full AND turning off an oil well isn’t all that simple,… if an oil well is turned off ya might not get it back into production again (this is especially true in fracking)

the long term consequences is going to be felt in the futures market,… noticed some here mentioned they were looking at the USO “etf” that contains future contracts

since retail investors buy the USO “etf” (which acts like a stock, meaning it can go to zero) BUT in reality the future contracts have lots of downside liabilities (i.e. a credit default swap) where someone is suppose to pay the bill

basically if things continue and no there is no more crude oil storage along w/ decreased demand things could be a real big mess (here is a preview)

[quote]
He started the day with $77,000 — by midnight, he owed $9 million

On April 20, Shah started with about $77,000 in his account. He put $2,400 toward buying crude, first at $3.30 a barrel, and then more at 50 cents. From there it got interesting. Ultimately, as the historic plunge in oil prices took hold, he was able to load up on futures at a penny each.

In reality, crude was already trading at negative-$3.70 a barrel — not at one cent — but the minus sign wasn’t recognized due to a glitch in the Interactive Brokers Group’s software. By the end of the day, Shah got the message: His $77,000 had turned into a $9-million debt.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he-started-the-day-with-77000-by-midnight-he-owed-9-million-2020-05-10
[/quote]

FWIW personally think we are in for rougher times ahead, because of the way USO was restructured w/ four month rolling contracts,… which basically is a way to try and kick the can down the road and hope thinks somehow work out

https://www.piggington.com/preparing_next_4_years#comment-288796

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita]I would personally hate living in the city. Too dense, not enough personal space, parking is a bitch and you need to pay for it all the time, high HOA, high cost of food. .No thanks. Being a bachelor in the city is only so fun so many years when you are still young. It gets old really fast. But if it floats people’s boat. all good.[/quote]

I left nyc in the 80s. Too much $ and difficulty for me. Laundry out of building, groceries up 4 flights. Room about size of my current closet and my closets not that big.

Has gotten worse since then, the living used to be ez.

No regrets. But if I’d been able to make good $ there if likely still be th er e

Inertia

[FlyerInHi]

The 80s were the peak of white flight to the suburbs. All else being equal, if you bought in the city, you’d be richer today. Because you would have gotten in at the bottom. Always buy at the bottom.

Remember Reagan standing in NYC? That was the bottom.
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2016/11/best-cityreads-of-the-week/506582/

You can retrofit a washer/dryer into a NY apartment. The euro style machine washes and dries at the same time and only uses 120V. Now that LED light bulbs, TV and appliances are so efficient, there is no need to upgrade the electrical system.

Hong Kongers were able to buy in Vancouver, Toronto, LA, Sydney, London, etc… thanks to superior returns on their urban flats.

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