Coronavirus Endgame

[outtamojo]

Yay synthetic antibodies
https://news.yahoo.com/synthetic-antibodies-might-offer-a-quick-coronavirus-treatment-132122036.html

This area could use a pittance of our GDP
to put in our pandemic arsenal.

[teaboy]

Y’all ready to stay home till June?

“’A reality check on the math’: What’s ahead for California and Covid-19“
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/california-covid-19-whats-next-outbreak-lockdown

tb

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=teaboy]Y’all ready to stay home till June?

“’A reality check on the math’: What’s ahead for California and Covid-19“
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/california-covid-19-whats-next-outbreak-lockdown

tb[/quote]

I took a 3.5 h walk in the rain.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO most the country will be open by the end of April.

Sun comes out and it gets warmer it is going to be a lot harder to keep people inside.

[sdduuuude]

A decent data page here for California:
https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

But absolute numbers used only. Nothing based on % of population or growth rate.

And San Diego county graph here is good.
We look to be in decent shape, as of 4/6 the last doubling took 7 days: 734 on 3/30 and 1453 on 4/6.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Bar%20Graph%20of%20New%20and%20Total%20Cases.pdf

In italy, the max deaths per day coincided pretty closely with the inflection point in total cases. Possible CA is right there. Someone said CA may not peak (I assume new cases per day) until May but I think CA may be there next week if not already.

[spdrun]

IHME model implies a peak in mid-April, and those models have been pretty accurate thus far…

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

California started mass house arrest and store closings around mid-March, and time from infection to diagnosis is 2-4 weeks at most. Social interaction has likely been decreased by 80-90%, so there’s no way that r^0 is above 1.0 at this point.

[sdduuuude]

San Diego graph just updated. The next obvious doubling may be 8 or 9 days.

FYI, In the US:
Flu deaths: 24,000 (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2)
COVID-19 deaths: 14,668

Flu season was starting to taper off when “stay at home” started. Curious what will happen to the flu next year if we have to do another month-long lock down in the fall. I don’t understand exactly how the flu virus works but could it serve to kill influenza once and for all ? It’s incubation period is 2-4 days.

[Coronita]

looking good San Diego.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

[phaster]

[quote=teaboy]
“’A reality check on the math’: What’s ahead for California and Covid-19“
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/california-covid-19-whats-next-outbreak-lockdown
[/quote]

since this thread is suppose to be about the covid-19 endgame, perhaps a historical perspective “reality check” is needed to understand this mess isn’t going to end anytime soon

[quote]
AMERICAN EXPERIENCE Influenza 1918

Influenza 1918 is the story of the worst epidemic the United States has ever known. Before it was over, the flu would kill more than 600,000 Americans – more than all the combat deaths of this century combined.

http://www.pbs.org/video/american-experience-influenza-1918/
[/quote]

[quote]
An Unfinished Lesson: What The 1918 Flu Tells Us About Human Nature

… Just over a century ago, a new infectious disease overtook the globe. Its history has long been buried, subsumed beneath the story of World War I. Historian Nancy Bristow believes it’s no mistake that Americans have focused on their victory in the war rather than on the devastation of the 1918 flu pandemic.

“To remember the flu would be to admit to the lack of control that people had had over their own health. It would be to admit that the United States was not necessarily all powerful, but was like everywhere else in the world: subject as victims to something beyond their control,” she says.

http://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature
[/quote]

bottom line, if the 1918 pandemic is any guide we should expect three waves of infection

[spdrun]

This is unclear … this thing may be burning itself out in NYC naturally:

I wonder what the true exposure rate on the Diamond Princess was. About 20% of the people on board tested positive for virus, but that’s not definitive for exposure, since there’s a window in the illness for testing — outside of this window, people don’t test positive unless the swab is done exactly right. It could be nearly 100% exposure and antibodies for all we know. I would love to see a serological survey of all of the passengers on the Princess.

12 people died out of 3700, which means the infection fatality rate could be 0.3%, even with an average population age of 58. Extrapolating this to NY state’s expected 16000 deaths, and assuming a true infection/exposure fatality rate of something like 0.15% to account for a lower average age of 37-38, 10 million people may already be exposed, which means that we’re 2/3 of the way to herd immunity.

The DP incident isn’t a large enough sample to be definative, but it make me wonder if cases in NYC are now slowing because half the state (and probably more than half of the city) are dead-end hosts at this point in time.

If this thing started out with an R0 number of 3.0, 50% immunity would lower it to 1.5, making it roughly as infectious as the flu in the population and only slightly more lethal.

[phaster]

[quote=spdrun]I wonder what the true exposure rate on the Diamond Princess was… about 20% of the people on board tested positive for virus, but that’s not definitive for exposure, since there’s a window in the illness, outside of which, people don’t test positive. It could be nearly 100% exposure and antibodies for all we know. I would love to see a serological survey of all of the passengers on the Princess.

12 people died out of 3700, which means the infection fatality rate could be 0.3%, even with an average population age of 58. Extrapolating this to NY state’s expected 16000 deaths, and assuming a true infection/exposure fatality rate of something like 0.15% to account for a lower average age of 37-38, 10 million people may already be exposed, which means that we’re 2/3 of the way to herd immunity.

The DP incident isn’t a large enough sample to be definative, but it make me wonder if cases in NYC are now slowing because half the state (and probably more than half of the city) are dead-end hosts at this point in time.

If this thing started out with an R0 number of 3.0, 50% immunity would lower it to 1.5, making it roughly as infectious as the flu in the population and only slightly more lethal.[/quote]

math isn’t simple/straightforward because one should account for social-economic factors among other things

for example those who were infected on the cruise ship are on the upper end of the income scale, so we can infer that they have better access to medical care AND perhaps might be in better shape to fight off infections

numbers in New York include the homeless who most likely are not in the best of physical or mental health,… so this population is more likely to become infected simply because their ability to fight off disease isn’t the best AND given the homeless density once infection takes hold it will spread pretty darn fast (a good analogy people in SoCal might relate to is a fast moving firestorm)

http://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2020-04-08/coronavirus-homeless-granada-hills-recreation-center

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/los-angeles-undergoes-massive-effort-to-get-homeless-into-hotels

[spdrun]

^^^

Wouldn’t living on the streets already select for people who are good at fighting off infections? i.e. those street homeless that weren’t immunocompetent have mostly died quickly. Also, the street homeless population is a relatively small fraction of NYC’s population (maybe 4000 people so 0.05% of total).

[phaster]

^^^

I’m not an MD, but have family who are and from what I gather there is always going to be exceptions to the rules,… if ya walk around east village, golden hill, downtown, banker hill, etc., you’ll see the homeless aren’t in the best physical condition,… then there is the homeless encampment density

bottom line, the homeless encampments and living conditions of many in TJ are a “yuge” petri dish of infection just waiting to happen

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/12/20/20997299/asylum-border-mexico-us-iom-unhcr-usaid-migration-international-humanitarian-aid-matamoros-juarez

this is why I don’t think we can take much comfort looking at a cruise ship infection rates to forecast what to expect

[spdrun]

My point is that even if 25% of the street homeless in NYC died of it, it wouldn’t alter the numbers too much.

[phaster]

^^^

if 25% of homeless in NYC died,… that is about 20k (or approx 6x of 9/11 deaths),… looking at numbers published in the news

[quote]
Cities With the Most Homelessness
Three of the top 5 cities are in California.

New York City
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 78,676

Los Angeles and Los Angeles County
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 49,955

Seattle and King County, Washington
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 12,112

San Diego and San Diego County, California
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 8,576

San Jose, Santa Clara and Santa Clara County, California
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 7,254

http://www.usnews.com/news/cities/slideshows/cities-with-the-most-homelessness-in-the-us
[/quote]

if r0 “r naught” for covid-19 is low lets say 1.5 (which is way below medical reports from china,…) just looking at the hypothetical homeless numbers of death for this thread example means other 30,000 people infected w/ covid-19 (in just the NYC area)

AND did a quick fact check and see that,…

[quote]
The city has 62 active hospitals, with a combined capacity of 26,451 beds.

https://ibo.nyc.ny.us/iboreports/printnycbtn5.pdf
[/quote]

in any case the unvarnished truth is, we are up shit creek (till a vaccine or herd immunity happens) and the three or so weeks we in San Diego have been ordered to shelter in place, is in the grand scheme of things pretty early in the ball game as I read the tea leaves

PS this morning was discussing the subject w/ the family that are MDs, and seems people w/ other medical emergencies like stroke, cancer, broken bones, etc. are not showing up in the ER (in pre covid-19 numbers) because it seems people are scared off,… so a big question remains what of people w/ other medical needs than should be addressed???

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