Coronavirus Endgame

[sdduuuude]

[quote=teaboy]“Two new road maps lay out possible paths to end coronavirus lockdowns”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/29/two-new-road-maps-lay-out-possible-paths-to-end-coronavirus-lockdowns/%5B/quote%5D

Thank goodness someone said this:

“… former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb and colleagues, doesn’t set a date, but rather outlines the evidence that communities would need to begin lifting some of the more draconian restrictions.”

If only our President or Bill Gates had been that smart.

[sdduuuude]

I am surprised that SD numbers getting worse this week. Thought the school and bar closings would have had some effect on the numbers by now. They were looking linear there of about 55/ day for a week then all of the sudden jumped to 120 or so for three days running now. Governor’s SOH order was two weeks ago today. I hope that starts to have some effect on our numbers soon.

[teaboy]

Will the USA or San Diego Endgame involve “immunity passports”?
Sounds like a great idea, but seems above our skills/means to implement.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/immunity-passports-could-speed-up-return-to-work-after-covid-19

tb

[spdrun]

Here’s the problem with “immunity passports” — either a very small % of people have been infected and bringing them back to work would be economically insignificant, or a large % of people have been exposed (say 50%) and we’re well on our way to herd immunity.

And, of course, people will do their best to catch this if catching it and recovering means freedom.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=teaboy]Will the USA or San Diego Endgame involve “immunity passports”?
Sounds like a great idea, but seems above our skills/means to implement.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/immunity-passports-could-speed-up-return-to-work-after-covid-19

tb[/quote]

We need to do something fast, simply staying closed down (maybe 6-18 months) until there are “no” new cases is not an option IMO. We will be done as a nation.

[spdrun]

“The Hammer and the Dance”. The endgame isn’t “no” new cases, just lowering the number of infections so the hospitals can handle it and so that contacts of cases can be ID’ed…

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Say r0 of this thing is 3, meaning that each “generation” of the virus multiplies cases by a factor of three. Reducing contact by a factor of 10, wearing masks, etc will likely reduce the “fertility” of the virus to about 0.3, meaning that the number of cases will shrink exponentially in a similar period that it took them to grow. Politicians ordering people around also need to remember that between incubation period, showing symptoms, and testing, there’s a lag time of several weeks. New cases and hospitalizations will take 2 weeks to a month to start showing real declines.

But decline they will, almost as quickly as they grew. New cases will be a bell-shaped curve, though TOTAL people in hospital will still go up, since many people stay in hospital for a few weeks.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=teaboy]Will the USA or San Diego Endgame involve “immunity passports”?
Sounds like a great idea, but seems above our skills/means to implement.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/immunity-passports-could-speed-up-return-to-work-after-covid-19

tb[/quote]

We need to do something fast, simply staying closed down (maybe 6-18 months) until there are “no” new cases is not an option IMO. We will be done as a nation.[/quote]

Essentially, lockdown is the only option until we can widely test the population and develop a vaccine. This is all self-induced because we failed to test early and perform contact tracing earlier. Debra Birx essentially admitted that we were asleep at the wheel and thought this was like SARS.

Even when we do develop a vaccine, a lot of Americans will refuse it. And a lot of people won’t be able to pay for it. I don’t see this ending well or soon.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=spdrun]”The Hammer and the Dance”. The endgame isn’t “no” new cases, just lowering the number of infections so the hospitals can handle it and so that contacts of cases can be ID’ed…

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Say r0 of this thing is 3, meaning that each “generation” of the virus multiplies cases by a factor of three. Reducing contact by a factor of 10, wearing masks, etc will likely reduce the “fertility” of the virus to about 0.3, meaning that the number of cases will shrink exponentially in a similar period that it took them to grow. Politicians ordering people around also need to remember that between incubation period, showing symptoms, and testing, there’s a lag time of several weeks. New cases and hospitalizations will take 2 weeks to a month to start showing real declines.

But decline they will, almost as quickly as they grew. New cases will be a bell-shaped curve, though TOTAL people in hospital will still go up, since many people stay in hospital for a few weeks.[/quote]

You’re right….. but unless we have a vaccine, people will die sooner or later — just not in crowded hospitals. Unless we have therapy or/and a vaccine.

It’s a race against time to develop medicinal treatment and a vaccine. Incidentally, saying “flatten the curve” is meaningless to many Americans who don’t know basic math. Political leaders should explain better otherwise a large population will go on as usual, spreading the virus.

[phaster]

[quote=spdrun]”The Hammer and the Dance”. The endgame isn’t “no” new cases, just lowering the number of infections so the hospitals can handle it and so that contacts of cases can be ID’ed…

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Say r0 of this thing is 3, meaning that each “generation” of the virus multiplies cases by a factor of three. Reducing contact by a factor of 10, wearing masks, etc will likely reduce the “fertility” of the virus to about 0.3, meaning that the number of cases will shrink exponentially in a similar period that it took them to grow. Politicians ordering people around also need to remember that between incubation period, showing symptoms, and testing, there’s a lag time of several weeks. New cases and hospitalizations will take 2 weeks to a month to start showing real declines.

But decline they will, almost as quickly as they grew. New cases will be a bell-shaped curve, though TOTAL people in hospital will still go up, since many people stay in hospital for a few weeks.[/quote]

when the number of virus infections starts to decline, the next big challenge is keeping people confident there is hope

IOW people have to recognize it’s easier to destroy things, building stuff is much, much, much harder!!!

sad fact of the matter is, there are far too many no talent ass clowns who basically are Darwin Award candidates

http://www.nypost.com/2020/03/25/influencer-reportedly-hospitalized-with-coronavirus-after-licking-toilet/

http://www.foxnews.com/lifestyle/woman-licked-toilet-coronavirus-challenge-dr-phil

and don’t have a clue what real hardship or sacrifice is,…

having pointed out the inconvenient truth(s), when this clusterfuck is over actually think things will be much better because people will realize the difference between a “want” vs a “need” along w/ realizing the fact that the path we were on was unsustainable AND solutions only happen when there is corporation and acceptance of hard science (as is the case where people have to work together to find a vaccine)

[FlyerInHi]

The whole controversy over hydroxychloroquine seems to indicate that the government is in panic mode. They are shifting to worrying about treatment as more and more people get sick. Maybe they are not so confident a vaccine can be developed and rolled out soon.

Plus “flattening the curve” just means pulling on the right and spreading the numbers over a longer period. This will prolong lockdowns and the effects on the economy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/06/navarro-fauci-feud-coronavirus-treatment-167855

[livinincali]

[quote=FlyerInHi]The whole controversy over hydroxychloroquine seems to indicate that the government is in panic mode. They are shifting to worrying about treatment as more and more people get sick. Maybe they are not so confident a vaccine can be developed and rolled out soon.

Plus “flattening the curve” just means pulling on the right and spreading the numbers over a longer period. This will prolong lockdowns and the effects on the economy.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/06/navarro-fauci-feud-coronavirus-treatment-167855%5B/quote%5D

A vaccine in the near future is a pipe dream. You’ve got at least 1 and more likely multiple winter flu seasons before you could ever hope for a mass scale reliable vaccine. Forms of coronavirus have been around for a long time, they cause the common cold and vaccines have been worked on but never succeeded in decades. It’s really unlikely that you’ll see a vaccine anytime soon if at at. The best approach is probably can you find some sort of remedy that makes getting the disease less likely to be fatal. There’s a bit of promise with hydroxychloroquine which has been around for a long time as prophylaxis for malaria. It side-effects are generally minor and understood. It’s a 50 year old drug. It wont work for everybody but it might work for some cases that become serious enough to warrant it.

You’ll never get this thing under control unless you reach herd immunity hopefully with mild cases. It’s r0 is close to 3 and it seems like in certain situations it’s way higher than that. If social distancing was a real solution you would have seen significant decrease in cases after 10 days and we really haven’t. There’s definitely other vectors of spread that don’t involve coughing/droplets which is letting this thing linger. Most likely it’s the hospitals where unhealthy people that don’t have covid-19 are forced to go for other reasons and then pick up the virus from there and bring it back to wherever they came from.

[svelte]

[quote=livinincali] There’s definitely other vectors of spread that don’t involve coughing/droplets which is letting this thing linger. [/quote]

There definitely is and that’s why they have people wear gloves. The virus can live on surfaces.

We must all go out at least a few times a week for groceries, gas etc. Be especially vigilant when you go to those places.

[svelte]

[quote=The-Shoveler]
We need to do something fast, simply staying closed down (maybe 6-18 months) until there are “no” new cases is not an option IMO. We will be done as a nation.[/quote]

I don’t think the goal is to get to zero new cases before restrictions are lifted. That is not practical.

The goal is to spread out the transmissions such that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed.

Yes, Stay At Home will be lifted in a few weeks, but life will by no means be completely back to normal. Until when and if a vaccine is widely distributed, transmissions will continue to occur. That likely means we’ll be living with some sort of modified behavior for a year or two.

Just like in 1918-1920.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=svelte][quote=The-Shoveler]
We need to do something fast, simply staying closed down (maybe 6-18 months) until there are “no” new cases is not an option IMO. We will be done as a nation.[/quote]

I don’t think the goal is to get to zero new cases before restrictions are lifted. That is not practical.

The goal is to spread out the transmissions such that hospitals don’t get overwhelmed.

Yes, Stay At Home will be lifted in a few weeks, but life will by no means be completely back to normal. Until when and if a vaccine is widely distributed, transmissions will continue to occur. That likely means we’ll be living with some sort of modified behavior for a year or two.

Just like in 1918-1920.[/quote]

My moms aunt died in the Spanish flu epidemic, and it had rippling effects on how her mom raised her. Apparently it was a pretty traumatic time for my gramma.

Wonder whether this will have traumatic effects as we head into global warming endtimes.

[phaster]

Endgame?!

PS food for thought,…

Two men are walking through a forest. Suddenly, they see a bear in the distance, running towards them. They turn and start running away. But then one of them stops, takes some running shoes from his bag, and starts putting the on.

“What are you doing?” says the other man.

“Do you think you will run fast than the bear with those?”

“I don’t have to run faster than the bear,” he says.

“I just have to run faster than you.”

[Author]

Posts