Coronavirus Endgame

[sdduuuude]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdduuuude]

And why isn’t anyone publishing percentage-based numbers. Yes, the US has the most cases, but its population is a little bigger than Italy and a little smaller that China so that doesn’t tell us anything. Yes, New York has the most cases in the US but it is also a huge city. SF may be much worse off on a percentage basis. Maybe not. I don’t know because the news is stupid.[/quote]

The news does give you the breakdown by state and state populations are widely known, so you have all the information you need to do the calculations on a statewide basis. In addition, the news gives us the cases & deaths for some large cities such as NYC and SF, and their populations are widely known. So if you don’t take the 5-10 mins to gather the stats and run the calcs, that’s on you dude.

Statewide are here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

Major cities are in various spots.[/quote]

Yes. I was just thinking the other day – I’d really like news coverage that makes me do my own calcs.

[svelte]

[quote=sdduuuude]

Yes. I was just thinking the other day – I’d really like news coverage that makes me do my own calcs.[/quote]

Especially when it takes so much less effort to complain about it on a blog.

[outtamojo]

For those whose endgame is to skedaddle you might not be welcome. Doesnt seem right to me as owners of second homes pay property taxes that support the local services and are rarely there to use them

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-sends-city-dwellers-fleeing-second-homes-inflaming-tensions-212622496.html

[phaster]

[quote=The-Shoveler]California budget surplus likely to be wiped out.

I would say it is highly unlikely SoCal will see anything remotely like the CV numbers in NYC
[/quote]

yup 99.999% certain the,… California budget surplus likely to be wiped out!!!

[quote=The-Shoveler]COVID-19: Updated data implies that UK modelling hugely overestimates the expected death rates from infection

This is the study that the CDC used to convince USA to shut down.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/25/covid-19-updated-data-implies-that-uk-modelling-hugely-overestimates-the-expected-death-rates-from-infection/
[/quote]

WRT “scientific” info published on the site,… wattsupwiththat.com

pretty much the site is known for being not too rigorous

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/watts-up-with-that/

basically that site is filled w/ characters that sell a message for a price,… for example

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/13/a-conversation-with-patrick-moore/

http://www.desmogblog.com/patrick-moore

Lobbyist (Patrick Moore)
Claims Monsanto’s Roundup Is Safe To Drink
Freaks Out When Offered A Glass
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovKw6YjqSfM

if you’re interested in solid info from virologists w/ decades of experience discussing the issues listen to

TWiV (This Week in Virology) | A podcast about viruses
http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/

bottom line in the real world when r0 (i.e. “r naught” which is the number of people that become infected),… is greater than one the disease will spread

said another way,… the higher the r0 the more contagious the covid-19 virus is (and FWIW the reason covid-19 spread so rapidly is because it looks like the r0 value is greater than three, which means one individual who catches the virus can in effect pass it along to three other people)

realistically until there is heard immunity or a vaccine developed, people will be at risk of contracting an illness,… which will have knock on effects that simple math models do not take into account (for example)

http://www.npr.org/2020/03/18/816644358/covid-19-threatens-food-supply-chain-as-farms-worry-about-workers-falling-ill

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-effects-of-covid-19-will-ripple-through-food-systems/

because it looks like the r0 value is “conservatively” greater than three,… the SoCal area will most likely be hit w/ high CV numbers just like in the NYC area,… looking at the medical data victims will be older AND/OR weaker (i.e. individuals with pre-existing medical conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, etc.)

http://www.TinyURL.com/PandemicTips

what those in the know fear is COVID-19 is going to hit in waves (similar to the 1918 pandemic)

http://www.pbs.org/video/american-experience-influenza-1918/

[sdduuuude]

San Diego trying to get back into exponential behavior again. Number of new cases per day is growing but the doubling time is 4 or 5 days instead of 3 and it was linear for a couple of days there.

The r0 / r3 values are for a society with unchanged behavior patterns. From what I can tell from my Home Depot trips and people I know – most in San Diego are being pretty good about social distancing. Not so much with staying home but pretty good about small groups, not going to bars (obviously since they aren’t open), parents we know keeping kids home.

San Diego closed Schools two Sundays ago and schools the day after that so the 14 day incubation period on unmodified social behavior is coming to an end in a couple days. I’m hopeful it changes the numbers and r drops below 1 for San Diego after Tuesday or Wednesday.

Deaths may go exponential for another week or two, however.

[The-Shoveler]

We will see I guess, IMO SoCal is not NYC

[phaster]

ever consider that SoCal has the third world not too far away which has a “yuge” population that’s kinda akin to a people living in a “yuge” petri dish

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/12/20/20997299/asylum-border-mexico-us-iom-unhcr-usaid-migration-international-humanitarian-aid-matamoros-juarez

then there is

[quote]
Cities With the Most Homelessness
Three of the top 5 cities are in California.

New York City
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 78,676

Los Angeles and Los Angeles County
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 49,955

Seattle and King County, Washington
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 12,112

San Diego and San Diego County, California
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 8,576

San Jose, Santa Clara and Santa Clara County, California
Number of people experiencing homelessness: 7,254

http://www.usnews.com/news/cities/slideshows/cities-with-the-most-homelessness-in-the-us
[/quote]

since you mentioned the California “surplus” being wiped out,… we also might want to look at what is happening locally

[quote]
AUDIT: SAN DIEGO’S FISCAL HEALTH

San Diego is the most fiscally troubled city in San Diego County, according to the California State Auditor.

…That poor ranking appears to be driven by the city’s large amount of long term debt, more than $3.3 billion, and its failure to set aside adequate funding to meet the demands of its pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, according to the dashboard.

San Diego also received the worst rating when came to the amount it has set aside in its financial reserves, an issue the auditor specifically highlighted during her press conference.

“The city of San Diego really only has a couple of months of reserves set aside,” said Howle. “This should be a warning flag for city officials and the city of San Diego, that this is an area officials need to focus on.”

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/story/2019-10-25/state-auditors-ranks-fiscal-health-of-471-cities-mixed-bag-for-san-diego-region
[/quote]

this issue is directly related to a front page story that appeared in the UT (where I noticed the UT watchdog missed a few key facts)

http://www.TinyURL.com/13thCheck

basically looking at the issue as an investor

http://www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning

we are facing the perfect $hit $torm,… with political leadership consisting of showboating idiots who pander to their own constituencies BUT basically have a history of having NO balls to deal w/ big problems AND shit for brains,… for example Todd Gloria who looks to become the next mayor of this city and the irony is if the idiot gets elected he is going to have to fix problem he basically created in the first place?!

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/communities/san-diego/story/2020-01-21/poll-shows-gloria-with-big-lead-in-san-diego-mayors-race-over-sherman-bry

http://www.TinyURL.com/ToddGloria

perhaps it’s possible to dodge the first wave bullet,… BUT given the various factors/trends in play, long term seems

[FlyerInHi]

So Trump decided against a quarantine of NY for morale reasons. For sure a quarantine would really piss off rich people who live in NY and have second homes elsewhere.

Anthoni Fauci explains it here. Poor guy looks really tired. He is near the end of his career, about to retire a hero, and now has to stay up late nights dealing with this. Add all the TV interviews he has to appear on to reassure the public. If I were him, it’d fell Trump “I’m in charge or I quit”.

Seem to me like Fauci is doing more work than Debra Birx or Mike Pence.

[sdduuuude]

Italy locked down March 12 and went linear about March 22. that’s only 10 days. Italy is definitely in linear growth phase now and has been for a few days.

I wonder if the lockdown was effective or if the whole country is now so infected that the virus is having a hard time finding new hosts.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=sdduuuude] so infected that the virus is having a hard time finding new hosts.[/quote]

That may be the end game, that and 80 degree days.

Air pollution and or smoking seems to increase death rate dramatically.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdduuuude]

Yes. I was just thinking the other day – I’d really like news coverage that makes me do my own calcs.[/quote]

Especially when it takes so much less effort to complain about it on a blog.[/quote]

Heaven forbid I keep to the topic at hand:

[quote=teaboy]Is anyone else utterly disappointed with the lack of intellectual rigor in most clickbait “news” articles these days?[/quote]

[svelte]

[quote=sdduuuude][quote=svelte][quote=sdduuuude]

Yes. I was just thinking the other day – I’d really like news coverage that makes me do my own calcs.[/quote]

Especially when it takes so much less effort to complain about it on a blog.[/quote]

Heaven forbid I keep to the topic at hand:

[quote=teaboy]Is anyone else utterly disappointed with the lack of intellectual rigor in most clickbait “news” articles these days?[/quote][/quote]

Here ya go lazy:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Deaths per 1M population.

[teaboy]

“Two new road maps lay out possible paths to end coronavirus lockdowns”

Two new road maps lay out possible paths to end coronavirus lockdowns

[The-Shoveler]

IN L.A. it seems people are just ignoring the closed signs and going to the beach,

Weather warms up IMO people will just start going outside.

[sdduuuude]

That is so useful. Thanks. If I hadn’t posted, they wouldn’t have done that !

Maybe Hopkins will take that data and put it on a map.

That shows Europe is in really bad shape. US deaths – 8 per million or 1 in 125,000. Italy deaths – 1 in 5617. Also, the first US case was 9 days before Italy. Claiming that the US leads the world in CV cases is meaningless. Stupid press.

Now I want to see growth rates – one color for inverse exponential, one color for linear and different colors for doubling times of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 days for those growing exponentially.

Conjur that up !

I hope your friends are winning the battle.

[Author]

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