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Coronita.
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May 21, 2020 at 3:27 PM #817495May 21, 2020 at 3:50 PM #817497
ltsddd
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]How’s the Apple/Google app going? Seem like we’re falling behind other countries in contract tracing.
Trump was touting the app months ago.[/quote]
Trump was saying the virus will go away when the weather heats up. That was our country’s plan to deal with the virus.
May 21, 2020 at 4:09 PM #817498FlyerInHi
Guest[quote=zk]What a lot of people don’t seem to understand is that testing and contact tracing are steps towards opening the economy without unnecessary deaths.
Opening the economy without trying to reduce the spread of the coronavirus has the potential to cause two problems. For the economy. One, a lot of people (people who understand how contagious and dangerous the virus is, not only to themselves but to others) will continue to stay home. Two, a lot of people will get sick and die. That’s not good for the economy, either. When people start dying at higher rates (which is virtually inevitable if we open the economy without the necessary precautions and restrictions), then more people will want to stay at home. Not good for the economy.
If you want the economy to improve, you should be rooting for testing and contact tracing.[/quote]
Yes I agree, But I am American I am for freedom first.
Memorial Day is coming. Americans want their freedom back.Maybe we should have just kept the economy “raring” and let it rip.
Sweden seems to have done ok. I should extrapolate the deaths by population and see how it would’ve worked fir us.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.htmlMay 21, 2020 at 4:13 PM #817499GuestOne of the first contact-tracing apps violates its own privacy policy
May 21, 2020 at 5:10 PM #817501Hobie
Participant[quote=zk][quote=Hobie]Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.[/quote]
So you have no evidence, then? You just made a wild assumption and you’re convinced of it until convinced otherwise?[/quote]
Why don’t we hear of any flu statistics? Why is there not a side by side comparison of number of flu vs. corona stats? Just sayin’
May 21, 2020 at 6:02 PM #817502zk
Participant[quote=Hobie][quote=zk][quote=Hobie]Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.[/quote]
So you have no evidence, then? You just made a wild assumption and you’re convinced of it until convinced otherwise?[/quote]
Why don’t we hear of any flu statistics? Why is there not a side by side comparison of number of flu vs. corona stats? Just sayin'[/quote]
Just sayin’ what? That you can’t come up with any reasonable responses to what I said so you completely change the subject?
Ok.
If flu stats and covid stats were understood by the general public the way they’re understood by scientists, you wouldn’t want them to be hearing about them.
I wrote this on another thread:
When comparing Covid-19 death rate with influenza death rate, virtually everybody (including me) has been using a 0.1% death rate for the flu.
0.1% is actually the case fatality rate for the flu, not the infection fatality rate for the flu.
“Case fatality rate” means deaths per confirmed case. “Infection fatality rate” means deaths per actual infection. Because we don’t test everybody for these infections, the infection fatality rate can only be estimated. Also, the case fatality rate will necessarily be higher than the infection fatality rate.
Technically, the case fatality rate for Covid-19 is some very-high number (because we test so few people) that means nothing right now. But the estimated infection fatality rate of Covid-19 seems to be around 0.5% to 0.8%. The infection fatality rate of influenza is estimated between 0.025% and 0.05%.
That makes infection with the novel coronavirus somewhere between 10 and 32 times deadlier than infection with an influenza virus.
And don’t forget, it’s also wildly more contagious than influenza.
Also, reading this may help you understand more about influenza numbers and about the differences between influenza and covid:
This is from the second article:
If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.
Remember, there were lock downs in place a lot of places during that time frame for covid. But not for influenza during its worst week of the last 7 years. There obviously would have been far more deaths from covid than during that week without the lock downs. So it’s possible the numbers are even worse than that.
May 22, 2020 at 7:28 AM #817513Participantzk: My original thread ended with a rhetorical question. You kinda missed that and jumped into the weeds.
Moving on, another way to think about contact tracing is going back to the venn diagram concept.
Let’s suppose you pick a random person in NY who doesn’t know he is a carrier. (NY only because the high density helps illustrate my point.) That person quarantines in his house with his family. Then he goes to market for food. Next Home Depot, gas, drug store, walk in park. Repeat a couple times a week.
Now if you track his contacts and then everyone else in his apartment building, they are going to be shopping at very close by shops following a similar exposure path. Now imagine this as venn diagram.
See how in no time, everyone will have crossed paths with our infected guy. And how the next ‘logical’ step is to have all those people now quarantine.
This again will lead to work stoppage and lumbering economy.
Can we agree on the future data collected by contact tracing is going to be a can of worms? ( hence my original rhetorical question )
People cannot be quarantined until there is a treatment or vaccine. People will accept some level of risk. Let people choose their own level of risk.
Can we also agree that the current data attributing a death from Covid excluding any pre-existing terminal condition (hospice)skews data.
Wouldn’t a more accurate data set include patient other conditions?
Washington health officials: Gunshot victims counted as COVID-19 deaths
May 22, 2020 at 8:55 AM #817517scaredyclassic
Participant[quote=Hobie]zk: My original thread ended with a rhetorical question. You kinda missed that and jumped into the weeds.
Moving on, another way to think about contact tracing is going back to the venn diagram concept.
Let’s suppose you pick a random person in NY who doesn’t know he is a carrier. (NY only because the high density helps illustrate my point.) That person quarantines in his house with his family. Then he goes to market for food. Next Home Depot, gas, drug store, walk in park. Repeat a couple times a week.
Now if you track his contacts and then everyone else in his apartment building, they are going to be shopping at very close by shops following a similar exposure path. Now imagine this as venn diagram.
See how in no time, everyone will have crossed paths with our infected guy. And how the next ‘logical’ step is to have all those people now quarantine.
This again will lead to work stoppage and lumbering economy.
Can we agree on the future data collected by contact tracing is going to be a can of worms? ( hence my original rhetorical question )
People cannot be quarantined until there is a treatment or vaccine. People will accept some level of risk. Let people choose their own level of risk.
Can we also agree that the current data attributing a death from Covid excluding any pre-existing terminal condition (hospice)skews data.
Wouldn’t a more accurate data set include patient other conditions?
i knew we werent going to be able to agree on death numbers.
it does seem at first glance like people should be able to determine their own risk appetitie, but the problem societally is that we are all connected, man, so one person with a higher risk appetite doesn’t only increase risk for self, she increases risk for others.
we;re not connected in some hippydippy way, i mean, we are ALL CONNECTED. we are all part of one giant ecological cauldron, breathing the same air, like one organism. we are not as separated as we think we are. there is no fully separate me from the universe (although our 401k accounts definitely appear to be distinct).
and even though we are all interwoven…
doesnt mean we shouldnt be increasing risk societally, just that this isn’t a purely individual risk appetite decision. it’s a judgment call for society to make, which we do all the time….for instance…
the risk to others from opening up is greater than the risk to others from drugs, and as a society we decided that it’s just too “risky” for people to be able to manage their own bodies and decide whether they should be able to take psychedelic mushrooms or whatever. as a society we feel like, nope, too risky, too nutty, you
c an’t do that. which is utter bullshit.and society bans drugs, and people think it’s prudent and sensible, even tho ingestion of drugs is way less risky to others than walking around and spreading germs all over the place that our immune system can’t deal with.
so, yeah, I’m in favor of opening up this nation, getting the brutal buzzsaw of pseudocapitalism and endless consumption revved up again , im even ok with a massive death toll, but i am NOT OK with saying this is just some individual risk profile decision.
that is BULLSHIT.
it’s more like a guy smoking on a plane. it’s OBVIOUSLY not just an individual decision he makes to increase his risk for cancer.
he’s stinking up the whole plane!
In the exact same way, this IS OBVIOUSLY not just an individual risk profile decision on how you think you’ll fare from covid 19.
so, in sum…
no on airplane smoking.
no, not even in the bathroom, you disgusting freak.
yes on psychedelic mushrooms
yes on opening up the country.
no on trump
no on yes.
yes on no.
no on biden
yes on liesno on truth
no on time
yes on space
yes on the present
no on the past
No on Jesus
Yes on Joel Osteen
No on thoughts
Yes on reality.
No on Noh theatre
liberty …all that hand wringing and anguish over legalizing weed.
too “risky”.
I assume all the pro-open pro-self autonomy people are also vehemently outraged at the continuing criminalization and incarceration of certain drugs
and are fighting hard to legalize it nationally as part of their more liberty plan?
naah. when we said “liberty” we meant just your liberty to be part of the giant capitalist machine adn help it keep moving.
however…meditate, dont medicate
May 22, 2020 at 9:02 AM #817522Participant[quote=Hobie]
Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.[/quote][quote=Hobie]zk: My original thread ended with a rhetorical question. You kinda missed that and jumped into the weeds.
[/quote]
Ha! So very trumpesque. Say something completely ridiculous and, when called on it, claim it was “sarcasm” or, in your case, “a rhetorical question.”
[quote=Hobie]
People will accept some level of risk. Let people choose their own level of risk.
[/quote]
That’s where your whole argument falls apart. Any time a person increases his risk of getting the virus, he increases the risk of others getting the virus. So he’s choosing others’ risk for them.
As to your Venn diagram, yes, there would be a lot of contacts involved. There would be a lot of quarantining. The ideal time to have done it would’ve been March or even February when there were a lot fewer cases. That didn’t happen at the time because our president thought it would go away “like a miracle.” It is very late in the game to start. But it’s better than not starting at all.
May 22, 2020 at 9:17 AM #817523Participantit might actually be too late, because trump waited.
TRUMP WAITED, THREE MILLION WERE FATED.
sometimes the die is cast and it is too late to start investing for retirement, take birth control, or to do contact tracing.
but it’s never too late to wise up.
hobie and scaredy are ONE BEING.
what was our face before we were born?
i feel prepared to die, but not to suffer.
May 22, 2020 at 10:05 AM #817526Guest[quote=Hobie]
Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.[/quote]
Convince-me-otherwise is just the same as try-to-change-my-mind. There are memes going.
https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/Change-My-MindMay 22, 2020 at 10:10 AM #817527ucodegen
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]One of the first contact-tracing apps violates its own privacy policy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/21/care19-dakota-privacy-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_41%5B/quote%5D
A quote from the article:The oversight suggests that state officials and Apple, both of which were responsible for vetting the app before it became available April 7, were asleep at the wheel.
Figures – management farms it out – and fuggedaboutit(s).
May 22, 2020 at 10:14 AM #817528Guest[quote=scaredyclassic]it might actually be too late, because trump waited.
TRUMP WAITED, THREE MILLION WERE FATED.
sometimes the die is cast and it is too late to start investing for retirement, take birth control, or to do contact tracing.but it’s never too late to wise up.
[/quote]Remember when Trump first talked of a total and complete shutdown?
Now, with the states doing their own things it will be like whac-a-mole.
Engineering wise, it’s not too late. But do we have the will to do it?
May 22, 2020 at 10:26 AM #817529Guest[quote=The-Shoveler]Keep your phone GPS off IMO.[/quote]
I am not a computer guy, but I think that in addition to GPS, Bluetooth is necessary for accuracy. Convince me otherwise.
May 22, 2020 at 1:49 PM #817533outtamojo
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=Hobie]
Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.[/quote]
Convince-me-otherwise is just the same as try-to-change-my-mind. There are memes going.
https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/Change-My-Mind%5B/quote%5DWhen the lockdown ends Americans will find themselves surrounded by surreptitiously built 5G towers. Think your last free thoughts while you still can!
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