Confused with the current market

[Scarlett]

Thanks TG, and the others, I appreciate all the advice and take it constructively. I perhaps not “saved”/invested wisely. I will consider cutting the college funds to nothing at least until the kids are in first grade. And I will also look at insurance. Still, even if I cut them off to minimum, it saves just about $1000 a month… 12K a year…how long it takes to save oh, 400K?
[quote=temeculaguy]Just an addendum, the 2k daycare is bugging me. Is there a grandparent or relative that isn’t doing anything?[/quote]
Unfortunately, no, my in-laws are half continent away, and mine in Europe have their own parents to take care of. I know many of our friends ‘used’ granparents as free day care. But my kids are quite a handful and ‘challenging’, spirited and I don’t know if grandparents could have handled them, at their age, even they’d have offered.
Anyhow the point is moot as we barely have enough rooms for ourselves. Not sure I’d have liked to live in the same small house with my parents or in-laws. next door would have been perfect. I would have also loved for my kids to have a much closer relationship to their grandparents. You ARE blessed, TG.

From what I’ve seen, though I haven’t looked a lot, nannies cost close to 2000/mo and don’t do cleaning & cooking. And certainly won’t provide the education that a good daycare/preschool will give. I don’t think I’d trust one.

Regarding food – Not everybody eats the same; some people have dietary, allergy, weight or some other health issues. We are guilty of eating out dinner as a family at a slightly nicer place (e.g. TGIF, CPK, Sammy’s) twice a week (i.e. $50-60 at least that nite), no energy and time left to cook. Which I don’t think it’s unreasonable, given how busy we are, but we try to cut it down, since it’s not very healthy. Fortunately we don’t patronize McDonalds or Starbucks. Kids favorite burger place is Islands. I try to buy on sale and generic or bulk (Costco) where is doesn’t matter, and use coupons whenever I can – e.g. canned goods, household cleaning, bathroom stuff; and organic where I think it matters for kids(staples like chicken (from Costco), eggs, milk, root vegetables). Lots of fresh produce & wild fish, those add up.

Insurance – we have term for the adults for half milion each (some medical issues made one of them more expensive) and universal variable (the one that builds cash value) for the kids. But perhaps we should reconsider those for kids, those are expensive.

[Scarlett]

[quote=SD Realtor]***********

Montessori is good but you will find a pretty high variance of quality between locations. We did for the ones that we checked out. Also the normal operation hours for Montessori were no convenient for us and as you know these places make a killing on after hours care.[/quote]

Thanks, SD R. Montessori in La Jolla (the one on Fay) charges 7$/hr for the 3-5:30 after hours care. They introduced after hours only very recently.

[Scarlett]

[quote=SD Realtor]***********

Montessori is good but you will find a pretty high variance of quality between locations. We did for the ones that we checked out. Also the normal operation hours for Montessori were no convenient for us and as you know these places make a killing on after hours care.[/quote]

Thanks, SD R. Montessori in La Jolla (the one on Fay) charges 7$/hr for the 3-5:30 after hours care. They introduced after hours only very recently.

[Scarlett]

[quote=SD Realtor]***********

Montessori is good but you will find a pretty high variance of quality between locations. We did for the ones that we checked out. Also the normal operation hours for Montessori were no convenient for us and as you know these places make a killing on after hours care.[/quote]

Thanks, SD R. Montessori in La Jolla (the one on Fay) charges 7$/hr for the 3-5:30 after hours care. They introduced after hours only very recently.

[Scarlett]

[quote=SD Realtor]***********

Montessori is good but you will find a pretty high variance of quality between locations. We did for the ones that we checked out. Also the normal operation hours for Montessori were no convenient for us and as you know these places make a killing on after hours care.[/quote]

Thanks, SD R. Montessori in La Jolla (the one on Fay) charges 7$/hr for the 3-5:30 after hours care. They introduced after hours only very recently.

[Scarlett]

[quote=SD Realtor]***********

Montessori is good but you will find a pretty high variance of quality between locations. We did for the ones that we checked out. Also the normal operation hours for Montessori were no convenient for us and as you know these places make a killing on after hours care.[/quote]

Thanks, SD R. Montessori in La Jolla (the one on Fay) charges 7$/hr for the 3-5:30 after hours care. They introduced after hours only very recently.

[JustLurking]

Scarlett,

If you are at UCSD, you should look at the preschool at the La Jolla YMCA. It is a great program, and cheaper than UCSD.

[JustLurking]

Scarlett,

If you are at UCSD, you should look at the preschool at the La Jolla YMCA. It is a great program, and cheaper than UCSD.

[JustLurking]

Scarlett,

If you are at UCSD, you should look at the preschool at the La Jolla YMCA. It is a great program, and cheaper than UCSD.

[JustLurking]

Scarlett,

If you are at UCSD, you should look at the preschool at the La Jolla YMCA. It is a great program, and cheaper than UCSD.

[JustLurking]

Scarlett,

If you are at UCSD, you should look at the preschool at the La Jolla YMCA. It is a great program, and cheaper than UCSD.

[Rt.66]

[quote=Arraya]I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.[/quote]

Very well put Arraya!

Folks who take your advice will save tons of money. It’s so painfully obvious how f-ed up the market is and yet some will still try and find ways to argue the facts. I cannot imagine a worse environment for RE values in SD or how there could ever be more negative factors weighing against it.

Realtors make money if they convince someone to sell or buy, thus they will always be doing one or the other. Many of those who are engaging in bidding wars and wooing realtors to get their 20% over list bid to the top of the pig-men’s pile will lose their asses and walk away eventually. We the tax payers will pick up the tab, again, and realtors will have completed another cycle of f-ing their fellow Americans.

This round of knife catcher debate is indeed funny, replete with a realtor who never gave anyone bad advice.

[Rt.66]

[quote=Arraya]I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.[/quote]

Very well put Arraya!

Folks who take your advice will save tons of money. It’s so painfully obvious how f-ed up the market is and yet some will still try and find ways to argue the facts. I cannot imagine a worse environment for RE values in SD or how there could ever be more negative factors weighing against it.

Realtors make money if they convince someone to sell or buy, thus they will always be doing one or the other. Many of those who are engaging in bidding wars and wooing realtors to get their 20% over list bid to the top of the pig-men’s pile will lose their asses and walk away eventually. We the tax payers will pick up the tab, again, and realtors will have completed another cycle of f-ing their fellow Americans.

This round of knife catcher debate is indeed funny, replete with a realtor who never gave anyone bad advice.

[Rt.66]

[quote=Arraya]I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.[/quote]

Very well put Arraya!

Folks who take your advice will save tons of money. It’s so painfully obvious how f-ed up the market is and yet some will still try and find ways to argue the facts. I cannot imagine a worse environment for RE values in SD or how there could ever be more negative factors weighing against it.

Realtors make money if they convince someone to sell or buy, thus they will always be doing one or the other. Many of those who are engaging in bidding wars and wooing realtors to get their 20% over list bid to the top of the pig-men’s pile will lose their asses and walk away eventually. We the tax payers will pick up the tab, again, and realtors will have completed another cycle of f-ing their fellow Americans.

This round of knife catcher debate is indeed funny, replete with a realtor who never gave anyone bad advice.

[Rt.66]

[quote=Arraya]I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.[/quote]

Very well put Arraya!

Folks who take your advice will save tons of money. It’s so painfully obvious how f-ed up the market is and yet some will still try and find ways to argue the facts. I cannot imagine a worse environment for RE values in SD or how there could ever be more negative factors weighing against it.

Realtors make money if they convince someone to sell or buy, thus they will always be doing one or the other. Many of those who are engaging in bidding wars and wooing realtors to get their 20% over list bid to the top of the pig-men’s pile will lose their asses and walk away eventually. We the tax payers will pick up the tab, again, and realtors will have completed another cycle of f-ing their fellow Americans.

This round of knife catcher debate is indeed funny, replete with a realtor who never gave anyone bad advice.

[Author]

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