Confused with the current market

[Scarlett]

[quote Arraya]

Now, it looks like the current rally is over and we are getting ready for the next leg down.

Stay liquid.[/quote]

Interesting graph. Love it. I think that IS the shape. Do you have time units for the X axes?

[Arraya]

I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.

[Arraya]

I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.

[Arraya]

I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.

[Arraya]

I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.

[Arraya]

I did not think you were trying to be funny. I thought it was funny that it is you trying to find a psychological fault that drives my thinking while I was thinking the same of you.

You don’t encourage anybody on their decisions? Really? Sure you don’t want to rethink that?

Well, I suppose, I could say that you appear desensitized to selling homes. When, as we all know, in the face of overwhelming evidence has not been the best idea over the past few years and as I have been adamantly stating, still isn’t.

See, SDR, we’re doing very similar things. Guiding people through emotional and financial decisions. Just from opposite ends of the spectrum. I don’t seek these people, but if they ask, I’ll give them the rundown and they always agree. The first person I helped, two years ago, has their credit back over 700 and they have put over 30K in the bank on the difference between rent over mortgage. I suspect the house has lost another $150K. A good move, I’d say. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe, you might want to explore your own psychological drivers for your decisions, rather than trying to find fault in others for not seeing things your way. Just a thought.

Let me rehash for you:

There are a 1001 reasons for a deflationary collapse that dwarfs the one of the great depression and only a few, if any, paper thin arguments against it. Banking, money and our credit system has changed very little in the past 80 years and outcomes of market dislocations, such as this, should not either.

The data is quite clear at this point locally, nationally and globally.

-Printing has done nothing to stop the credit contraction, see liquidity trap, thus driving all economic deterioration
-The banks are overwhelmed and unable to process defaults in a efficient manor
-Defaults are still trending up through historical levels, on all fronts, while bottlenecking to market. Basically, building up downward pressure.
-Mitigation in defaults has done nothing, but temporarily distort the market and are, for the most part, a costly failure
-Underlying economic conditions are still deteriorating and will do so for the foreseeable future.
-Pool of willing and able buyers is dwindling
-Total losses said to be @ 25 trillion and counting
-No engine for job growth
-Market following a typical “bull trap” after a bubble collapse

I’ve stated two things for at least 6 months on here.

1) The next leg down was coming in the fall, as time progressed, this was zeroed in on the end of Oct-early Nov. The market just started getting volatile and a few significant bankruptcies just went down. So look out.

2) Market psychology is more important to understand than anything in all markets. The temporary flood of money, inadvertent supply constriction, media and government encouragement has pushed up the markets while underlying conditions have deteriorated. The fundamental conditions of the markets will be recognized in a violent reversal of psychology.

On a local level, over 50% of all mortgages are either distressed with a probability of default or upside down, coupled with still deteriorating underlying conditions, equates to an unmitigated disaster. Half that is a disaster.

Again, my advise to everybody, stay liquid with some PMs as an insurance policy. Hyper-inflation/inflation will come at some point in the medium term. And do not take on debt.

Now, sdr, it’s not to late to repent. Time is short, analysis will soon be seen as good or not.

[Scarlett]

[quote=patientrenter]Scarlett,

I was saying that your situation is an example of why our system is nuts. Why? For one, because you say that you won’t be able to increase your downpayment much over the next few years, so that means you have little future savings available to pay for housing. Since you also don’t have the current price of what you want to buy in cash, my conclusion is that you cannot afford to buy a house for that price. You don’t have the money now, nor do you have the saving power necessary to pay for it in the near future. Yet you consider it normal and rational to buy it anyway. You probably are not unusual. That this kind of behavior is normal in our society is, to me, nuts.
[/quote]

But I am looking to fulfill 3 of the most commonly believed requirements for a rational home purchase, 1. 20% down; 2. home price = 3X gross income (500K); 3. debt to income ratio 28%. Isn’t that enough?! Ok, I understand I don’t have cash reserves beside the downpayment, but I can actually get cash if need be from retirement,life insurance. I am not perfect, but I think I will do ok and pay my mortgage.
I explained above where my money goes – is actually saved/invested for college, insurance, retirement, not spent recklessly. If I wouldn’t put those money there maybe I could pay my mortgage off sooner *if* I wanted to.
I think you may have a problem with 30 yr fixed rate loans then, that THEY shouldn’t exist – if you think I should be able to pay it off in a few years. It’s your opinion, but I think you are going too extreme in the opposite direction.

[Scarlett]

[quote=patientrenter]Scarlett,

I was saying that your situation is an example of why our system is nuts. Why? For one, because you say that you won’t be able to increase your downpayment much over the next few years, so that means you have little future savings available to pay for housing. Since you also don’t have the current price of what you want to buy in cash, my conclusion is that you cannot afford to buy a house for that price. You don’t have the money now, nor do you have the saving power necessary to pay for it in the near future. Yet you consider it normal and rational to buy it anyway. You probably are not unusual. That this kind of behavior is normal in our society is, to me, nuts.
[/quote]

But I am looking to fulfill 3 of the most commonly believed requirements for a rational home purchase, 1. 20% down; 2. home price = 3X gross income (500K); 3. debt to income ratio 28%. Isn’t that enough?! Ok, I understand I don’t have cash reserves beside the downpayment, but I can actually get cash if need be from retirement,life insurance. I am not perfect, but I think I will do ok and pay my mortgage.
I explained above where my money goes – is actually saved/invested for college, insurance, retirement, not spent recklessly. If I wouldn’t put those money there maybe I could pay my mortgage off sooner *if* I wanted to.
I think you may have a problem with 30 yr fixed rate loans then, that THEY shouldn’t exist – if you think I should be able to pay it off in a few years. It’s your opinion, but I think you are going too extreme in the opposite direction.

[Scarlett]

[quote=patientrenter]Scarlett,

I was saying that your situation is an example of why our system is nuts. Why? For one, because you say that you won’t be able to increase your downpayment much over the next few years, so that means you have little future savings available to pay for housing. Since you also don’t have the current price of what you want to buy in cash, my conclusion is that you cannot afford to buy a house for that price. You don’t have the money now, nor do you have the saving power necessary to pay for it in the near future. Yet you consider it normal and rational to buy it anyway. You probably are not unusual. That this kind of behavior is normal in our society is, to me, nuts.
[/quote]

But I am looking to fulfill 3 of the most commonly believed requirements for a rational home purchase, 1. 20% down; 2. home price = 3X gross income (500K); 3. debt to income ratio 28%. Isn’t that enough?! Ok, I understand I don’t have cash reserves beside the downpayment, but I can actually get cash if need be from retirement,life insurance. I am not perfect, but I think I will do ok and pay my mortgage.
I explained above where my money goes – is actually saved/invested for college, insurance, retirement, not spent recklessly. If I wouldn’t put those money there maybe I could pay my mortgage off sooner *if* I wanted to.
I think you may have a problem with 30 yr fixed rate loans then, that THEY shouldn’t exist – if you think I should be able to pay it off in a few years. It’s your opinion, but I think you are going too extreme in the opposite direction.

[Scarlett]

[quote=patientrenter]Scarlett,

I was saying that your situation is an example of why our system is nuts. Why? For one, because you say that you won’t be able to increase your downpayment much over the next few years, so that means you have little future savings available to pay for housing. Since you also don’t have the current price of what you want to buy in cash, my conclusion is that you cannot afford to buy a house for that price. You don’t have the money now, nor do you have the saving power necessary to pay for it in the near future. Yet you consider it normal and rational to buy it anyway. You probably are not unusual. That this kind of behavior is normal in our society is, to me, nuts.
[/quote]

But I am looking to fulfill 3 of the most commonly believed requirements for a rational home purchase, 1. 20% down; 2. home price = 3X gross income (500K); 3. debt to income ratio 28%. Isn’t that enough?! Ok, I understand I don’t have cash reserves beside the downpayment, but I can actually get cash if need be from retirement,life insurance. I am not perfect, but I think I will do ok and pay my mortgage.
I explained above where my money goes – is actually saved/invested for college, insurance, retirement, not spent recklessly. If I wouldn’t put those money there maybe I could pay my mortgage off sooner *if* I wanted to.
I think you may have a problem with 30 yr fixed rate loans then, that THEY shouldn’t exist – if you think I should be able to pay it off in a few years. It’s your opinion, but I think you are going too extreme in the opposite direction.

[Scarlett]

[quote=patientrenter]Scarlett,

I was saying that your situation is an example of why our system is nuts. Why? For one, because you say that you won’t be able to increase your downpayment much over the next few years, so that means you have little future savings available to pay for housing. Since you also don’t have the current price of what you want to buy in cash, my conclusion is that you cannot afford to buy a house for that price. You don’t have the money now, nor do you have the saving power necessary to pay for it in the near future. Yet you consider it normal and rational to buy it anyway. You probably are not unusual. That this kind of behavior is normal in our society is, to me, nuts.
[/quote]

But I am looking to fulfill 3 of the most commonly believed requirements for a rational home purchase, 1. 20% down; 2. home price = 3X gross income (500K); 3. debt to income ratio 28%. Isn’t that enough?! Ok, I understand I don’t have cash reserves beside the downpayment, but I can actually get cash if need be from retirement,life insurance. I am not perfect, but I think I will do ok and pay my mortgage.
I explained above where my money goes – is actually saved/invested for college, insurance, retirement, not spent recklessly. If I wouldn’t put those money there maybe I could pay my mortgage off sooner *if* I wanted to.
I think you may have a problem with 30 yr fixed rate loans then, that THEY shouldn’t exist – if you think I should be able to pay it off in a few years. It’s your opinion, but I think you are going too extreme in the opposite direction.

[scaredyclassic]

Now that i think about it, if we had just not had any kids and put all the day care monies into a bank account…hmm..thirty-seven, carry the 8…4% interest…we could pay cash for a small home in temecula today…naaah, rather have the kids….

[scaredyclassic]

Now that i think about it, if we had just not had any kids and put all the day care monies into a bank account…hmm..thirty-seven, carry the 8…4% interest…we could pay cash for a small home in temecula today…naaah, rather have the kids….

[scaredyclassic]

Now that i think about it, if we had just not had any kids and put all the day care monies into a bank account…hmm..thirty-seven, carry the 8…4% interest…we could pay cash for a small home in temecula today…naaah, rather have the kids….

[scaredyclassic]

Now that i think about it, if we had just not had any kids and put all the day care monies into a bank account…hmm..thirty-seven, carry the 8…4% interest…we could pay cash for a small home in temecula today…naaah, rather have the kids….

[Author]

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