Confused with the current market

[infoseeker]

I have also been patiently looking at these areas for nearly a year… I feel the last 3 months was pretty bad as far as inventory. Also certain homes in 4S brought so much traffic for open houses that parking was an issue :). However I am seeing a bit more inventory in the last couple of weeks (in our search range). FWIW, zestimates are also reducing. Hold on.. IMO its always better to shop for a home in the winter.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Scarlett]Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….[/quote]

The majority of buyers dont consider price, they consider monthly payment. They find a house that they like (hopefully) at a monthly payment they can swing (hopefully). If rates go up, then payments go up if principal doesnt go down. Simple as that, dumb as that.

Now that isnt a perfectly sliding scale, nothing in RE is. Seasonality, boom/bust, location location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.

So basically, your suggestion is a possibilty. Not the only one, but one. As always people need to put their money on the table and let the wheel spin, even if your money is sitting on ‘Wait’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Scarlett]Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….[/quote]

The majority of buyers dont consider price, they consider monthly payment. They find a house that they like (hopefully) at a monthly payment they can swing (hopefully). If rates go up, then payments go up if principal doesnt go down. Simple as that, dumb as that.

Now that isnt a perfectly sliding scale, nothing in RE is. Seasonality, boom/bust, location location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.

So basically, your suggestion is a possibilty. Not the only one, but one. As always people need to put their money on the table and let the wheel spin, even if your money is sitting on ‘Wait’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Scarlett]Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….[/quote]

The majority of buyers dont consider price, they consider monthly payment. They find a house that they like (hopefully) at a monthly payment they can swing (hopefully). If rates go up, then payments go up if principal doesnt go down. Simple as that, dumb as that.

Now that isnt a perfectly sliding scale, nothing in RE is. Seasonality, boom/bust, location location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.

So basically, your suggestion is a possibilty. Not the only one, but one. As always people need to put their money on the table and let the wheel spin, even if your money is sitting on ‘Wait’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Scarlett]Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….[/quote]

The majority of buyers dont consider price, they consider monthly payment. They find a house that they like (hopefully) at a monthly payment they can swing (hopefully). If rates go up, then payments go up if principal doesnt go down. Simple as that, dumb as that.

Now that isnt a perfectly sliding scale, nothing in RE is. Seasonality, boom/bust, location location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.

So basically, your suggestion is a possibilty. Not the only one, but one. As always people need to put their money on the table and let the wheel spin, even if your money is sitting on ‘Wait’.

[DWCAP]

[quote=Scarlett]Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….[/quote]

The majority of buyers dont consider price, they consider monthly payment. They find a house that they like (hopefully) at a monthly payment they can swing (hopefully). If rates go up, then payments go up if principal doesnt go down. Simple as that, dumb as that.

Now that isnt a perfectly sliding scale, nothing in RE is. Seasonality, boom/bust, location location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.

So basically, your suggestion is a possibilty. Not the only one, but one. As always people need to put their money on the table and let the wheel spin, even if your money is sitting on ‘Wait’.

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[KSMountain]

Let’s say a more real “recovery” really starts next year. If there are signs of inflation then I could see the Fed bumping say 0.5% next fall, and then another 0.5% at the very next meeting.

I don’t think that would be unprecedented.

So then blammo, you’d be 1% higher (on the fed funds rate anyway) in a pretty short amount of time.

[KSMountain]

Let’s say a more real “recovery” really starts next year. If there are signs of inflation then I could see the Fed bumping say 0.5% next fall, and then another 0.5% at the very next meeting.

I don’t think that would be unprecedented.

So then blammo, you’d be 1% higher (on the fed funds rate anyway) in a pretty short amount of time.

[KSMountain]

Let’s say a more real “recovery” really starts next year. If there are signs of inflation then I could see the Fed bumping say 0.5% next fall, and then another 0.5% at the very next meeting.

I don’t think that would be unprecedented.

So then blammo, you’d be 1% higher (on the fed funds rate anyway) in a pretty short amount of time.

[KSMountain]

Let’s say a more real “recovery” really starts next year. If there are signs of inflation then I could see the Fed bumping say 0.5% next fall, and then another 0.5% at the very next meeting.

I don’t think that would be unprecedented.

So then blammo, you’d be 1% higher (on the fed funds rate anyway) in a pretty short amount of time.

[Author]

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