Yes, the disaster is always a few years out… then a few more years… and so on.
Seriously, though, I’m not an expert on energy. (But then, clearly, neither are you. The difference, of course, is that I acknowledge it.) But one thing I’ve noticed is that over the long term humans adapt. Over the last 150 years we’ve moved from dirtier, less efficient fuels (wood, coal) to cleaner, more efficient fuels (electricity, gasoline, nuclear), and through technology we’ve made the latter even cleaner and more efficient. While I’m sure we’ll have some supply/demand bumps in the road from time to time, I see innovation and technology staying ahead of disaster. Necessity, after all, is the mother of invention. I’m not sure that “increased net energy going forward” is the issue. After all, isn’t it PER CAPITA (as opposed to aggregate) net energy USED (as opposed to produced) that’s the critical metric to track? (That is, we’re adjusting for increased efficiencies.) And, to be clear, I basically buy into the “peak oil” theory – there’s a certain logic to it. Although, again, I’m no expert.
Anyhow, I think your premise is somewhat flawed. Economic growth does not necessarily require “increased net energy.” I think it makes more sense to say that economic growth requires (among other things) that the productivity of energy USED (which, admittedly, assumes a certain amount of energy is actually available for use) expands faster than the population over the long term. And it wouldn’t surprise me if we’re behind somewhat on that count. But, again, necessity is the mother of invention. I’m sure (most of) our ancestors of 150 years ago couldn’t have imagined the wonders we see today.
I’m a cynic and skeptic by nature. But I’m also basically an optimist. Humans are a pretty hearty lot. I’m more concerned about nuclear war than about running out of energy.
Again, energy is an issue. I just don’t hold the same Malthusian views on the issue that you do. And there are smart folks on both sides of this debate, so playing “expert vs. expert” would be pointless.
