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March 10, 2007 at 9:24 AM #47288March 10, 2007 at 9:28 AM #47289AnonymousGuest
Materials Costs Set to Resume Rising (Construction Materials Prices Update)
Jim Haughey — March 5, 2007
Construction commodity prices are now rising again after slumping last fall, but the higher costs for raw materials did not reach prices for finished products delivered to the job-site by the January survey week (i.e., the second week of the month). Lumber, aggregates and metals prices increased early in the year. Energy prices began to increase in mid-January, when cold winter weather finally arrived in the Northeast and Midwest.
The turnabout in the price trend is due to the “bunching up” of several short-term factors. Therefore, the accumulated price increase through this summer will be modest compared to the 18% (annual rate) price surge that occurred in early 2004 and late 2005. The inventory surplus for construction materials, set off by the plunge in housing starts, is now largely absorbed. Materials production increased slightly in the last two months, after dropping for four months. Lumber prices picked up briskly in anticipation of labor disputes disrupting lumber imports from Canada, while oil prices firmed due to colder weather and supply reductions in the Middle East.
Prices for finished construction materials were essentially unchanged in the three months through January and were 2.2% below the peak level last August. Ahead, materials costs are expected to resume rising, probably beginning in the price report for February. Reed Construction Data expects construction materials prices to increase 5% to 6% this year, about double the inflation rate in the rest of the economy.
For all of 2007, the key price drivers will again be tight supplies of oil and metals in the world market and cement and aggregates in the U.S. market.Look at the data chart from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Bond Chart. Except for wood other materials could go up twice the rate of inflation.
March 10, 2007 at 10:01 AM #47293AnonymousGuestHere is a link to Serramar. http://www.lucasandmercier.com/scal_template.asp?ID=51&Res=1&Plan=1&Ele=1&View=1
Not sure what they have left. A few resales have been listed.
7624 Seattle Dr is for sale at $799K-$875K. Started 49 days ago for $899K. Seller paid $836K on 12-25-2005.
March 10, 2007 at 10:13 AM #47295AnonymousGuestHere is a link to the MLS listings for Windsor Hills- Buyer Full Page
Not sure if the link will work. Let me know and I can give you the MLS #’s so you can look it up on Realtor.com or I can email the listings to you.
March 10, 2007 at 10:20 AM #47296AnonymousGuestI see the link did not work. Here are the #’s.
076007725,072008990,076009536,076003113,062101945 and 076011417. Most of these have been on the market before and expired.March 10, 2007 at 10:46 AM #47298PerryChaseParticipantIf I recall from his previous postings Mixxalot is looking at something that’s $250k – $350k, $400k tops.
Mixxalot, I say, rent, wait 5 years then reassess the situation. It’s gonna be 1990 all over again.
March 10, 2007 at 11:06 AM #47302mixxalotParticipantYeah 250k-350k is my price limit. I dont make enough to afford 700k+ for a home.
I pay 1k a month for an apartment close to the beach. With my hectic travel schedule moving would be tough at this point. I will wait 5 years and sock cash away into CD accounts.
1990 again will be divine for us first time wise home buyers. Doom for fools and evil greedy swine speculators.
March 10, 2007 at 11:06 AM #47303PerryChaseParticipantOn construction costs, the costs are made up of 3 main components.
1) Labor costs. Those costs have been going up. But as layoffs hit the industry, they will only come down as the current projects are completed and no new projects are on the horizon.
2) Overhead/markup costs. Those consist of mostly builders’ profit, and other costs as supervisory costs. Design profits, etc… Contractors basically want you to pay for their profits but as the work dries up, those will come down drastically.
3) Commodity costs (lumber, sheet rock, etc..) As fewer and fewer projects get green-lighted, the demand for commodities will drop sharply. Look for lower commodity prices.
The building industry has a vested interest in justifying their costs so look at their data in that light.
My take is that the basic cost of building a house in SD is no more than $80/sf, excluding the land.
March 10, 2007 at 11:43 AM #47305AnonymousGuestSorry, I did not see your price point.
March 10, 2007 at 11:56 AM #47307AnonymousGuestAll true. I would say to build a average size home in San Diego would cost between $250K and $300K.
If you can build it yourself you will save lots of money.March 10, 2007 at 7:41 PM #47325AnonymousGuestOn Colorado:
Not sure how much you know about Colorado weather, but there is a general misconception out there that it is similar to the Midwest. Don’t get me wrong, it does get cold there, but in an area like Denver or Boulder, the sun shines more days than San Diego and the weather tends to be very bearable. EG: I was in Denver this year on a day that was sunny and 30 and it was actually warm! Keep in mind that it is very dry there, so a 30 degree day feels much warmer than 30 degree day in say Chicago. This lack of humidity and plentiful sunshine makes a hige difference. Also, the snow tends to melt quick after it falls.
March 10, 2007 at 9:46 PM #47331AnonymousGuestJuice has it exactly right about Colorado. The average high along the front range is in the mid 40’s in January, and it feels hotter than the air temperature because there are a lot of sunny days and the sun’s intensity is higher because of the altitude. In addition, the daytime highs are quite variable. So there may be a period of days that will be cold but they would be followed by a period with highs in the 60’s, something you’d almost never see back in the midwest during January. They do have a lot of snowfall but it usually melts/evaporates within a few days.
The one thing I had a hard time with in CO was the lack of big bodies of water. There are some reservoirs but nothing too major. Other than that and the periods of cold in the wintertime I found living there to be quite similar to CA, with a few less people of course!
March 10, 2007 at 11:16 PM #47338CardiffBaseballParticipantMy 12 years in Texas I never encountered a “crooked cop”, but I remember some cops who let us slide for pulling over to take a piss, and having some beer in the truck. They could tell we weren’t drunk, we told them where were headed, and they let us go.
I used to be a traveling consultant, and living in Dallas was extremely convenient. 3-4 hours tops to anywhere and always direct flights (unless you got stuck going to Wal-mart in Ark.)
I know Dallas gets a bad rap, but realistically, time spent dorking around in airports is as bad as traffic, and living in Dallas cuts way down on connector flights. Houston is similarly well situated as the Continental Hub.
Someone mentioned Denver, and that is a United hub, so it might also cut down wasted time, although I seem to recall the airport itself, is WAYYYY outside of town.
March 11, 2007 at 7:03 AM #47348mixxalotParticipantSomeone mentioned Denver, and that is a United hub, so it might also cut down wasted time, although I seem to recall the airport itself, is WAYYYY outside of town.
Yes- I have heard that about Denver. Same with San Francisco and the SFO airport is a long drive between. Dallas may work well. I’ve never seen either Denver nor Dallas so a trip will make it interesting.
How about Utah? Whats it like compared to Denver?
If I were rich I would have an ocean front condo in Miami and party up with latinas on weekends since I love salsa dancing.
March 11, 2007 at 10:07 AM #47352PerryChaseParticipantIf I were rich I would have an ocean front condo in Miami and party up with latinas on weekends since I love salsa dancing.
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Don't bother with Denver. Set your mind on Miami. The market there is crashing. You will be able to find a nice condo at the low. Right now, the foreigners who own condos in Miami are loosing their shirts (in housing depreciation and dollar depreciation). I think that in 5 years you can grab a 2bd/2bt for under $350k when the fickle investors dump.
Miami is very fun. I love salsa also. Latin dancing is just hot.
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