Cancelleds, Expireds, Withdrawns

[PD]

I calculated the inventory based on the information available to me. Sorry if I made a mistake or if my information was out of date. Ten months still does not equate to 60 days on the market, however.

[powayseller]

Steve, months inventory, you’ve got to use the last month of sales, not the average of past 6 months. market has shifted too much! How many pendings since 7/1, use that to get months inventory. inventory/avg monthly pendings since 7/1 – months inventory.

Steve, you should know better than to use March or April sales to compute today’s months’ inventory! Not in a falling market, where sales are dropping by 10 pts each qrtr, 10%, 20%, and now 30% for the last quarter…

For more accurate months inventory, discount the many escrows that fall out of escrow- wow!!! only 4 closed sales but 18 pending; did the market pick up that much, to go from 4 to 18 sales, or are most of the pendings falling out of escrow, so that only 6 of these 18 escrows will actually close? Can you find out?

PD is on the right track. Give her more data, and let her compute away. T

33 in escrow, but all under $3 mil, so the only homes selling in Coronado right now are the under $3 mil homes.

If you can do the statistics/calc right, months inventory in C. is probably much worse than 18 months. And remember, nothing over $3 mil is even selling

[sdduuuude]

An excellent answer, SDR. Thanks.

[Steve Beebo]

PD –

You’re right, and the agent is wrong – a 10 or 12 month supply of homes on the market is a lot different than saying houses are selling in 60 days. Maybe the agent means that if he priced a listing correctly, he would hope it sells in 60 days – but most aren’t.

There has been about 10 sales per month there on average, and there are 11 pendings that went into escrow so far in August. Maybe some will fall out – who knows.

PS –

I think it’s more accurate to use the average of the past 6 months if you’re trying to calculate the total months inventory in one zip code – the monthly figures for one zip code can jump up or down a lot from month to month, and I think the past six months have been equally slow in general.
If you’re calculating the months inventory for the whole County, you could use just the past months’ sales.

As much bad publicity as there has been in the media about the weak real estate market, it sometimes surprises me just how strong it can still be in some areas and price ranges.
I did an appraisal last week in the Gatewood Hills area of Rancho Bernardo – mostly 30 to 35 year old tract homes of 1800-2700 s.f. I researched the MLS for homes selling from $600,000 to $800,000, in about a half-mile radius of my subject property, and I found 15 active listings, 5 pending sales, and 25 closed sales in the past 6 months. To me, that is a fairly healthy market – price declines are not likely in that area and price range in the next several months.

[powayseller]

Gatewood Hills is home to one of the prime schools in North County: Chaparral Elementary in PUSD. Chaparral and my son’s school tie between the highest test scores in Poway, and it has a great reputation; we attended there one year, and I looked at Gatewood Hills when homes were in the mid 300s in early 2000.

The better areas in the PUSD are holding up well. Have seen lots of Sold signs in Poway and saw many new families yesterday at the first day of school.

Poway will be one of the last to go down, except for the lower income (and high NOD) areas in south Poway and off Pomerado, which have probably taken a hit already. (Townhomes and condos in Poway are down as well.)

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