Can you feel the shift?

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Gee TG,

Could have maybe picked a little better time for the bottom call with this Swine Flu stuff happening just now, If it gets much worse that could throw a wrench in the machinery everything else being equal.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not. [/quote]

Good point – although I’ll add that if the moratoriums become permanent policy, then such intervention will alter the market in a significant way. But if this is it for the moratoriums, then what we’ve seen the last few months is a bear market rally and nothing more.

I’d also like to add that earlier this month I saw some dramatic price reductions on a few properties. For example, in Redhawk a very nice property that I was looking at sold for $84 sqft. (The comps from late 2008 were $110 sqft.) And another great propery in Vail Ranch went for $81 sqft. These weren’t dumps, in fact, they were turn key properties that received multiple offers. Maybe the bottom means different things to different people, but one thing is for sure – there are some great deals out there even now with limited supply. But with northern san diego county prices finally becoming affordable, the better investments are there…at least for now.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not. [/quote]

Good point – although I’ll add that if the moratoriums become permanent policy, then such intervention will alter the market in a significant way. But if this is it for the moratoriums, then what we’ve seen the last few months is a bear market rally and nothing more.

I’d also like to add that earlier this month I saw some dramatic price reductions on a few properties. For example, in Redhawk a very nice property that I was looking at sold for $84 sqft. (The comps from late 2008 were $110 sqft.) And another great propery in Vail Ranch went for $81 sqft. These weren’t dumps, in fact, they were turn key properties that received multiple offers. Maybe the bottom means different things to different people, but one thing is for sure – there are some great deals out there even now with limited supply. But with northern san diego county prices finally becoming affordable, the better investments are there…at least for now.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not. [/quote]

Good point – although I’ll add that if the moratoriums become permanent policy, then such intervention will alter the market in a significant way. But if this is it for the moratoriums, then what we’ve seen the last few months is a bear market rally and nothing more.

I’d also like to add that earlier this month I saw some dramatic price reductions on a few properties. For example, in Redhawk a very nice property that I was looking at sold for $84 sqft. (The comps from late 2008 were $110 sqft.) And another great propery in Vail Ranch went for $81 sqft. These weren’t dumps, in fact, they were turn key properties that received multiple offers. Maybe the bottom means different things to different people, but one thing is for sure – there are some great deals out there even now with limited supply. But with northern san diego county prices finally becoming affordable, the better investments are there…at least for now.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not. [/quote]

Good point – although I’ll add that if the moratoriums become permanent policy, then such intervention will alter the market in a significant way. But if this is it for the moratoriums, then what we’ve seen the last few months is a bear market rally and nothing more.

I’d also like to add that earlier this month I saw some dramatic price reductions on a few properties. For example, in Redhawk a very nice property that I was looking at sold for $84 sqft. (The comps from late 2008 were $110 sqft.) And another great propery in Vail Ranch went for $81 sqft. These weren’t dumps, in fact, they were turn key properties that received multiple offers. Maybe the bottom means different things to different people, but one thing is for sure – there are some great deals out there even now with limited supply. But with northern san diego county prices finally becoming affordable, the better investments are there…at least for now.

[Bob]

[quote=Rt.66]3-6 months in a heavily manipulated market with non-stop Gov. intervention means nothing. Today’s market is a joke when you consider all the houses the banks are hiding so you’ll over-pay for the few they do sell.

The time frame is impossible to tell but a bottom this is not. [/quote]

Good point – although I’ll add that if the moratoriums become permanent policy, then such intervention will alter the market in a significant way. But if this is it for the moratoriums, then what we’ve seen the last few months is a bear market rally and nothing more.

I’d also like to add that earlier this month I saw some dramatic price reductions on a few properties. For example, in Redhawk a very nice property that I was looking at sold for $84 sqft. (The comps from late 2008 were $110 sqft.) And another great propery in Vail Ranch went for $81 sqft. These weren’t dumps, in fact, they were turn key properties that received multiple offers. Maybe the bottom means different things to different people, but one thing is for sure – there are some great deals out there even now with limited supply. But with northern san diego county prices finally becoming affordable, the better investments are there…at least for now.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[temeculaguy]

Then you name the time frame, but name it now, that’s the thing with predictions, you don’t get to name them afterwards. You can’t say “things will be bad”, not quantify or define “bad” and then later say you were right.

Your sources are not excellent sources, you never adressed the fact that they are unreliable, they are not “the sources,” they are the sucker sources.
They are certainly not the industry standard sources.

I am not in the industry, I’m just like you, I’m a guy who in 2006 was frustrated with the real estate prices, read all that I could, researched what I could and after nearly a three year endeavor I came to a few conclusions. Roubini and Shiller were on the money, the johnny come lately pundits are copycats who are selling hype but they are late to the game. I also learned that realty trac was crap, I tried to buy at least a dozen of their so called bank owned homes, all a mirage. Long before the word “bailout” was used, their listings, their shadow inventory from 2007, never materialized, this was before moratoriums, before anything had blown up, I watched, I waited and I was disapointed by their bad data. I wanted it to show up, I wanted it to explode before my eyes so I could have the house I wanted for the price I wanted. But it never came like they said it would, because they were and are selling an ideal, not unlike some religions. Eventually I realized it would happen slowly, so I bided my time goofing off with people on this site, learning more each day, tracking, visiting in person, waiting. Then you come along, I try to tell you Santa Claus isn’t real, but you won’t listen so it’s a journey you must make for yourself, hopefully the price of your tuition will be tolerable, I’ve done all I can with you. Time will tell, but as hard as you wish, that boat may never come for you because you have the wrong map and anyone with another map or has gotten lost with the very map you hold, is wrong in your eyes.

Maybe it’s true, maybe the government, the banks, the realtors and even the internet philosophers are all out to get you and in the end, you and you alone will be proven to be the wisest one of all. Good luck with that.

[Bob]

Don’t know if you are addressing me or not, but if you are, let me respond by saying this. I don’t get involved in meaningless exercises making predictions. I’m much more comfortable discussing and explaining economic/real estate issues based on my years as an investor.

As for your statement about Roubini, he and about 20 other economists predicted dire consequences for the economy due to the housing bubble. But for the last few months Roubini has been all over the map with his latest series of predictions. Late in 2008 he was predicting a near depression. Then when that didn’t pan out, he predicted an “L” shaped recession. Now his latest prediction is a “U” shaped recession. Maybe next month he’ll predict a recovery by the 4th of July.

The fact is, Roubini was an informal advisor to the Obama administration and it looks like Obama took much of Roubini’s advice regarding massive government intervention as the solution to the housing crisis. Unfortunately, nowhere on Roubini’s website does he mention the future inflationary pressures his so called solutions will cause to the economy.

[Bob]

Don’t know if you are addressing me or not, but if you are, let me respond by saying this. I don’t get involved in meaningless exercises making predictions. I’m much more comfortable discussing and explaining economic/real estate issues based on my years as an investor.

As for your statement about Roubini, he and about 20 other economists predicted dire consequences for the economy due to the housing bubble. But for the last few months Roubini has been all over the map with his latest series of predictions. Late in 2008 he was predicting a near depression. Then when that didn’t pan out, he predicted an “L” shaped recession. Now his latest prediction is a “U” shaped recession. Maybe next month he’ll predict a recovery by the 4th of July.

The fact is, Roubini was an informal advisor to the Obama administration and it looks like Obama took much of Roubini’s advice regarding massive government intervention as the solution to the housing crisis. Unfortunately, nowhere on Roubini’s website does he mention the future inflationary pressures his so called solutions will cause to the economy.

[Bob]

Don’t know if you are addressing me or not, but if you are, let me respond by saying this. I don’t get involved in meaningless exercises making predictions. I’m much more comfortable discussing and explaining economic/real estate issues based on my years as an investor.

As for your statement about Roubini, he and about 20 other economists predicted dire consequences for the economy due to the housing bubble. But for the last few months Roubini has been all over the map with his latest series of predictions. Late in 2008 he was predicting a near depression. Then when that didn’t pan out, he predicted an “L” shaped recession. Now his latest prediction is a “U” shaped recession. Maybe next month he’ll predict a recovery by the 4th of July.

The fact is, Roubini was an informal advisor to the Obama administration and it looks like Obama took much of Roubini’s advice regarding massive government intervention as the solution to the housing crisis. Unfortunately, nowhere on Roubini’s website does he mention the future inflationary pressures his so called solutions will cause to the economy.

[Bob]

Don’t know if you are addressing me or not, but if you are, let me respond by saying this. I don’t get involved in meaningless exercises making predictions. I’m much more comfortable discussing and explaining economic/real estate issues based on my years as an investor.

As for your statement about Roubini, he and about 20 other economists predicted dire consequences for the economy due to the housing bubble. But for the last few months Roubini has been all over the map with his latest series of predictions. Late in 2008 he was predicting a near depression. Then when that didn’t pan out, he predicted an “L” shaped recession. Now his latest prediction is a “U” shaped recession. Maybe next month he’ll predict a recovery by the 4th of July.

The fact is, Roubini was an informal advisor to the Obama administration and it looks like Obama took much of Roubini’s advice regarding massive government intervention as the solution to the housing crisis. Unfortunately, nowhere on Roubini’s website does he mention the future inflationary pressures his so called solutions will cause to the economy.

[Author]

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