Can you feel the shift?

[temeculaguy]

Using a similar analysis on one of the new ones I posted.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1634710

Jul 15, 1996 $130,000
Oct 18, 1996 $152,000
Aug 26, 2004 $415,000

Listed today for 259k, lets say you go 15% lowball and get it for 220k, that’s only 68k more than the overcorrection of 1996 and 5k per year appreciation per year from 1996 to 2008, in the 3-4% range, similar to inflation.

With 20% down (44k) the loan is 176k, using 6% fixed it is $1055/mo. Another 400 for ins and tax and you are below $1500. I rented within a mile of that place less than 2 months ago and $1500 for a house of that size and garage count was not possible then or today. 1800 would be about right, I picked a smaller place with a 2 car for 1500. If you use the basic rule that tax and insurance are roughly wiped out by the income tax credit, the scenario is 1500 to rent or 1055 to buy a bigger place with a bigger garage within jogging range then it’s hard for me to think that there is another 100k of downside risk. You wanted to see one pencil out, here it is, buying is cheaper than rent and the 44k downpayment saved you 450 a month and unless you can get 10% interest on it, it is a better use of it. Once again, it’s a good thing I am not a big fan of vail ranch and I like an HOA which it doesn’t have, otherwise I might be on my way over with a check. The hoods i like are still hanging on the other side of the 300k fence, but it’s examples like these which are within walking distance of where i am shopping that will pull them over that fence fairly soon. Don’t be a permabear or a permabull matt, just be a permaanalyst.

Drink in moderation, heavy drinking often results in bringing home ugly women.

What the hell, you only live once, go with PD’s advice and Drink Heavily, a little ugly never killed anyone.

[Aecetia]

Drink heavily is akin to breathe deeply. It is a Zen thing.

$133. a square foot. Wow. The prices are falling faster than they do at Walmart!

[Aecetia]

Drink heavily is akin to breathe deeply. It is a Zen thing.

$133. a square foot. Wow. The prices are falling faster than they do at Walmart!

[Aecetia]

Drink heavily is akin to breathe deeply. It is a Zen thing.

$133. a square foot. Wow. The prices are falling faster than they do at Walmart!

[Aecetia]

Drink heavily is akin to breathe deeply. It is a Zen thing.

$133. a square foot. Wow. The prices are falling faster than they do at Walmart!

[Aecetia]

Drink heavily is akin to breathe deeply. It is a Zen thing.

$133. a square foot. Wow. The prices are falling faster than they do at Walmart!

[Enorah]

Alright, so it’s a beautiful morning, and yet, I still have that general anxiety thingy going on. Causes me to breathe, breathe, breathe (gave up drinking years ago).

Remember, it’s all an illusion. Don’t get caught up thinking this game is something you can win. Play with love, play from love, play for love, but don’t play to win. When someone wins, surely they set up a losing point for themselves as well. ‘Tis what the polarity is constructed of.

[Enorah]

Alright, so it’s a beautiful morning, and yet, I still have that general anxiety thingy going on. Causes me to breathe, breathe, breathe (gave up drinking years ago).

Remember, it’s all an illusion. Don’t get caught up thinking this game is something you can win. Play with love, play from love, play for love, but don’t play to win. When someone wins, surely they set up a losing point for themselves as well. ‘Tis what the polarity is constructed of.

[Enorah]

Alright, so it’s a beautiful morning, and yet, I still have that general anxiety thingy going on. Causes me to breathe, breathe, breathe (gave up drinking years ago).

Remember, it’s all an illusion. Don’t get caught up thinking this game is something you can win. Play with love, play from love, play for love, but don’t play to win. When someone wins, surely they set up a losing point for themselves as well. ‘Tis what the polarity is constructed of.

[Enorah]

Alright, so it’s a beautiful morning, and yet, I still have that general anxiety thingy going on. Causes me to breathe, breathe, breathe (gave up drinking years ago).

Remember, it’s all an illusion. Don’t get caught up thinking this game is something you can win. Play with love, play from love, play for love, but don’t play to win. When someone wins, surely they set up a losing point for themselves as well. ‘Tis what the polarity is constructed of.

[Enorah]

Alright, so it’s a beautiful morning, and yet, I still have that general anxiety thingy going on. Causes me to breathe, breathe, breathe (gave up drinking years ago).

Remember, it’s all an illusion. Don’t get caught up thinking this game is something you can win. Play with love, play from love, play for love, but don’t play to win. When someone wins, surely they set up a losing point for themselves as well. ‘Tis what the polarity is constructed of.

[NotCranky]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

My numbers were actually wrong on the work out I did on this I was using the Feb 05, 2008 $310,500 as the listing price.
I honestly never looked at the listing until Nostradamus said it was 229k. It didn’t recently get dropped to 229k I think it was listed at or near that price. I think 310k was probably the trustees sale, again I didn’t look at it,just want to clarify my mistake.
There would be much less point in debating whether a house listed and 229k could go down to 160K. Although I think this actual situation verifies what I have been saying about Lowballing 10-20% off in the summer or even now while interest rates are good and show why I wouldn’t get fixated with the bottom unless I believed, as some do that there is no bottom. I think the rate argument is important in a situation like this… not in the usual way it is used to push buyer’s buttons. The downside risk starts to be getting a little bit lower price but a fixed higher intererest rate that maybe won’t ever drop. Yes the down side risk continues to be price too.We just hsve to weigh these thing for significance considering the properties are penciling out or better and a tax deduction is available for some and that lifestyle change,normally disgust with renting, is a factor too for some.I have no idea what is going to happen to rates. A mortgage broker I work with thinks they will be relatively flat for a year at least.

[NotCranky]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

My numbers were actually wrong on the work out I did on this I was using the Feb 05, 2008 $310,500 as the listing price.
I honestly never looked at the listing until Nostradamus said it was 229k. It didn’t recently get dropped to 229k I think it was listed at or near that price. I think 310k was probably the trustees sale, again I didn’t look at it,just want to clarify my mistake.
There would be much less point in debating whether a house listed and 229k could go down to 160K. Although I think this actual situation verifies what I have been saying about Lowballing 10-20% off in the summer or even now while interest rates are good and show why I wouldn’t get fixated with the bottom unless I believed, as some do that there is no bottom. I think the rate argument is important in a situation like this… not in the usual way it is used to push buyer’s buttons. The downside risk starts to be getting a little bit lower price but a fixed higher intererest rate that maybe won’t ever drop. Yes the down side risk continues to be price too.We just hsve to weigh these thing for significance considering the properties are penciling out or better and a tax deduction is available for some and that lifestyle change,normally disgust with renting, is a factor too for some.I have no idea what is going to happen to rates. A mortgage broker I work with thinks they will be relatively flat for a year at least.

[NotCranky]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

My numbers were actually wrong on the work out I did on this I was using the Feb 05, 2008 $310,500 as the listing price.
I honestly never looked at the listing until Nostradamus said it was 229k. It didn’t recently get dropped to 229k I think it was listed at or near that price. I think 310k was probably the trustees sale, again I didn’t look at it,just want to clarify my mistake.
There would be much less point in debating whether a house listed and 229k could go down to 160K. Although I think this actual situation verifies what I have been saying about Lowballing 10-20% off in the summer or even now while interest rates are good and show why I wouldn’t get fixated with the bottom unless I believed, as some do that there is no bottom. I think the rate argument is important in a situation like this… not in the usual way it is used to push buyer’s buttons. The downside risk starts to be getting a little bit lower price but a fixed higher intererest rate that maybe won’t ever drop. Yes the down side risk continues to be price too.We just hsve to weigh these thing for significance considering the properties are penciling out or better and a tax deduction is available for some and that lifestyle change,normally disgust with renting, is a factor too for some.I have no idea what is going to happen to rates. A mortgage broker I work with thinks they will be relatively flat for a year at least.

[NotCranky]

Take a look at this home..
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1564635
just a basic home in Paloma Del Sol.

Look at the sales history….
Jun 26, 1992 $137,500
—
Oct 16, 1997 $99,429
-5.9%/yr
Oct 20, 1997 $134,890
>1,000%/yr
Apr 23, 1998 $128,000
-9.8%/yr
Jun 21, 2001 $180,000
11.4%/yr
Oct 05, 2005 $389,000
19.7%/yr
Feb 05, 2008 $310,500
-9.2%/yr

My numbers were actually wrong on the work out I did on this I was using the Feb 05, 2008 $310,500 as the listing price.
I honestly never looked at the listing until Nostradamus said it was 229k. It didn’t recently get dropped to 229k I think it was listed at or near that price. I think 310k was probably the trustees sale, again I didn’t look at it,just want to clarify my mistake.
There would be much less point in debating whether a house listed and 229k could go down to 160K. Although I think this actual situation verifies what I have been saying about Lowballing 10-20% off in the summer or even now while interest rates are good and show why I wouldn’t get fixated with the bottom unless I believed, as some do that there is no bottom. I think the rate argument is important in a situation like this… not in the usual way it is used to push buyer’s buttons. The downside risk starts to be getting a little bit lower price but a fixed higher intererest rate that maybe won’t ever drop. Yes the down side risk continues to be price too.We just hsve to weigh these thing for significance considering the properties are penciling out or better and a tax deduction is available for some and that lifestyle change,normally disgust with renting, is a factor too for some.I have no idea what is going to happen to rates. A mortgage broker I work with thinks they will be relatively flat for a year at least.

[Author]

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