Can you feel the shift?

[scaredyclassic]

here’s a possibly meaningless data point for you. I am an extremely bearish pessimistic fellow who believes the bottom for housing is way off and the bottom for america may never come who keeps all his savings in gold and foreign bonds for years and has mistrusted the government since the early 80’s and even I saw a deal ona house I was ready to buy in murrieta 255k backign a nature preserve needed repairs i called to go see it itd been listed 14 days or so the agent said the bank got 18 offers on it and it’s in closing. i feel similar or better deals will be had, but, the point is, I mighta bought that one for 255 or maybe even a bit more. Just going off the pictures and knowing the neighborhood.

Drink heavily is meant in the broadest most life-embracing, embrace the catastrophe and live deeply kinda way but definitely does not exclude alcohol.

Drink Heavily.

[scaredyclassic]

here’s a possibly meaningless data point for you. I am an extremely bearish pessimistic fellow who believes the bottom for housing is way off and the bottom for america may never come who keeps all his savings in gold and foreign bonds for years and has mistrusted the government since the early 80’s and even I saw a deal ona house I was ready to buy in murrieta 255k backign a nature preserve needed repairs i called to go see it itd been listed 14 days or so the agent said the bank got 18 offers on it and it’s in closing. i feel similar or better deals will be had, but, the point is, I mighta bought that one for 255 or maybe even a bit more. Just going off the pictures and knowing the neighborhood.

Drink heavily is meant in the broadest most life-embracing, embrace the catastrophe and live deeply kinda way but definitely does not exclude alcohol.

Drink Heavily.

[scaredyclassic]

here’s a possibly meaningless data point for you. I am an extremely bearish pessimistic fellow who believes the bottom for housing is way off and the bottom for america may never come who keeps all his savings in gold and foreign bonds for years and has mistrusted the government since the early 80’s and even I saw a deal ona house I was ready to buy in murrieta 255k backign a nature preserve needed repairs i called to go see it itd been listed 14 days or so the agent said the bank got 18 offers on it and it’s in closing. i feel similar or better deals will be had, but, the point is, I mighta bought that one for 255 or maybe even a bit more. Just going off the pictures and knowing the neighborhood.

Drink heavily is meant in the broadest most life-embracing, embrace the catastrophe and live deeply kinda way but definitely does not exclude alcohol.

Drink Heavily.

[scaredyclassic]

here’s a possibly meaningless data point for you. I am an extremely bearish pessimistic fellow who believes the bottom for housing is way off and the bottom for america may never come who keeps all his savings in gold and foreign bonds for years and has mistrusted the government since the early 80’s and even I saw a deal ona house I was ready to buy in murrieta 255k backign a nature preserve needed repairs i called to go see it itd been listed 14 days or so the agent said the bank got 18 offers on it and it’s in closing. i feel similar or better deals will be had, but, the point is, I mighta bought that one for 255 or maybe even a bit more. Just going off the pictures and knowing the neighborhood.

Drink heavily is meant in the broadest most life-embracing, embrace the catastrophe and live deeply kinda way but definitely does not exclude alcohol.

Drink Heavily.

[scaredyclassic]

here’s a possibly meaningless data point for you. I am an extremely bearish pessimistic fellow who believes the bottom for housing is way off and the bottom for america may never come who keeps all his savings in gold and foreign bonds for years and has mistrusted the government since the early 80’s and even I saw a deal ona house I was ready to buy in murrieta 255k backign a nature preserve needed repairs i called to go see it itd been listed 14 days or so the agent said the bank got 18 offers on it and it’s in closing. i feel similar or better deals will be had, but, the point is, I mighta bought that one for 255 or maybe even a bit more. Just going off the pictures and knowing the neighborhood.

Drink heavily is meant in the broadest most life-embracing, embrace the catastrophe and live deeply kinda way but definitely does not exclude alcohol.

Drink Heavily.

[scaredyclassic]

here’s a possibly meaningless data point for you. I am an extremely bearish pessimistic fellow who believes the bottom for housing is way off and the bottom for america may never come who keeps all his savings in gold and foreign bonds for years and has mistrusted the government since the early 80’s and even I saw a deal ona house I was ready to buy in murrieta 255k backign a nature preserve needed repairs i called to go see it itd been listed 14 days or so the agent said the bank got 18 offers on it and it’s in closing. i feel similar or better deals will be had, but, the point is, I mighta bought that one for 255 or maybe even a bit more. Just going off the pictures and knowing the neighborhood.

Drink heavily is meant in the broadest most life-embracing, embrace the catastrophe and live deeply kinda way but definitely does not exclude alcohol.

Drink Heavily.

[nostradamus]

sorry pd and tg for mixing up the owner of the great slogan. I do like pd’s broader meaning of the term, especially since I don’t mix too well with alcohol (unless it’s a nice IPA or red wine or single malt scotch but other than that NO ALCOHOL for me :).

[nostradamus]

sorry pd and tg for mixing up the owner of the great slogan. I do like pd’s broader meaning of the term, especially since I don’t mix too well with alcohol (unless it’s a nice IPA or red wine or single malt scotch but other than that NO ALCOHOL for me :).

[nostradamus]

sorry pd and tg for mixing up the owner of the great slogan. I do like pd’s broader meaning of the term, especially since I don’t mix too well with alcohol (unless it’s a nice IPA or red wine or single malt scotch but other than that NO ALCOHOL for me :).

[nostradamus]

sorry pd and tg for mixing up the owner of the great slogan. I do like pd’s broader meaning of the term, especially since I don’t mix too well with alcohol (unless it’s a nice IPA or red wine or single malt scotch but other than that NO ALCOHOL for me :).

[nostradamus]

sorry pd and tg for mixing up the owner of the great slogan. I do like pd’s broader meaning of the term, especially since I don’t mix too well with alcohol (unless it’s a nice IPA or red wine or single malt scotch but other than that NO ALCOHOL for me :).

[temeculaguy]

Using a similar analysis on one of the new ones I posted.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1634710

Jul 15, 1996 $130,000
Oct 18, 1996 $152,000
Aug 26, 2004 $415,000

Listed today for 259k, lets say you go 15% lowball and get it for 220k, that’s only 68k more than the overcorrection of 1996 and 5k per year appreciation per year from 1996 to 2008, in the 3-4% range, similar to inflation.

With 20% down (44k) the loan is 176k, using 6% fixed it is $1055/mo. Another 400 for ins and tax and you are below $1500. I rented within a mile of that place less than 2 months ago and $1500 for a house of that size and garage count was not possible then or today. 1800 would be about right, I picked a smaller place with a 2 car for 1500. If you use the basic rule that tax and insurance are roughly wiped out by the income tax credit, the scenario is 1500 to rent or 1055 to buy a bigger place with a bigger garage within jogging range then it’s hard for me to think that there is another 100k of downside risk. You wanted to see one pencil out, here it is, buying is cheaper than rent and the 44k downpayment saved you 450 a month and unless you can get 10% interest on it, it is a better use of it. Once again, it’s a good thing I am not a big fan of vail ranch and I like an HOA which it doesn’t have, otherwise I might be on my way over with a check. The hoods i like are still hanging on the other side of the 300k fence, but it’s examples like these which are within walking distance of where i am shopping that will pull them over that fence fairly soon. Don’t be a permabear or a permabull matt, just be a permaanalyst.

Drink in moderation, heavy drinking often results in bringing home ugly women.

What the hell, you only live once, go with PD’s advice and Drink Heavily, a little ugly never killed anyone.

[temeculaguy]

Using a similar analysis on one of the new ones I posted.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1634710

Jul 15, 1996 $130,000
Oct 18, 1996 $152,000
Aug 26, 2004 $415,000

Listed today for 259k, lets say you go 15% lowball and get it for 220k, that’s only 68k more than the overcorrection of 1996 and 5k per year appreciation per year from 1996 to 2008, in the 3-4% range, similar to inflation.

With 20% down (44k) the loan is 176k, using 6% fixed it is $1055/mo. Another 400 for ins and tax and you are below $1500. I rented within a mile of that place less than 2 months ago and $1500 for a house of that size and garage count was not possible then or today. 1800 would be about right, I picked a smaller place with a 2 car for 1500. If you use the basic rule that tax and insurance are roughly wiped out by the income tax credit, the scenario is 1500 to rent or 1055 to buy a bigger place with a bigger garage within jogging range then it’s hard for me to think that there is another 100k of downside risk. You wanted to see one pencil out, here it is, buying is cheaper than rent and the 44k downpayment saved you 450 a month and unless you can get 10% interest on it, it is a better use of it. Once again, it’s a good thing I am not a big fan of vail ranch and I like an HOA which it doesn’t have, otherwise I might be on my way over with a check. The hoods i like are still hanging on the other side of the 300k fence, but it’s examples like these which are within walking distance of where i am shopping that will pull them over that fence fairly soon. Don’t be a permabear or a permabull matt, just be a permaanalyst.

Drink in moderation, heavy drinking often results in bringing home ugly women.

What the hell, you only live once, go with PD’s advice and Drink Heavily, a little ugly never killed anyone.

[temeculaguy]

Using a similar analysis on one of the new ones I posted.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1634710

Jul 15, 1996 $130,000
Oct 18, 1996 $152,000
Aug 26, 2004 $415,000

Listed today for 259k, lets say you go 15% lowball and get it for 220k, that’s only 68k more than the overcorrection of 1996 and 5k per year appreciation per year from 1996 to 2008, in the 3-4% range, similar to inflation.

With 20% down (44k) the loan is 176k, using 6% fixed it is $1055/mo. Another 400 for ins and tax and you are below $1500. I rented within a mile of that place less than 2 months ago and $1500 for a house of that size and garage count was not possible then or today. 1800 would be about right, I picked a smaller place with a 2 car for 1500. If you use the basic rule that tax and insurance are roughly wiped out by the income tax credit, the scenario is 1500 to rent or 1055 to buy a bigger place with a bigger garage within jogging range then it’s hard for me to think that there is another 100k of downside risk. You wanted to see one pencil out, here it is, buying is cheaper than rent and the 44k downpayment saved you 450 a month and unless you can get 10% interest on it, it is a better use of it. Once again, it’s a good thing I am not a big fan of vail ranch and I like an HOA which it doesn’t have, otherwise I might be on my way over with a check. The hoods i like are still hanging on the other side of the 300k fence, but it’s examples like these which are within walking distance of where i am shopping that will pull them over that fence fairly soon. Don’t be a permabear or a permabull matt, just be a permaanalyst.

Drink in moderation, heavy drinking often results in bringing home ugly women.

What the hell, you only live once, go with PD’s advice and Drink Heavily, a little ugly never killed anyone.

[temeculaguy]

Using a similar analysis on one of the new ones I posted.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1634710

Jul 15, 1996 $130,000
Oct 18, 1996 $152,000
Aug 26, 2004 $415,000

Listed today for 259k, lets say you go 15% lowball and get it for 220k, that’s only 68k more than the overcorrection of 1996 and 5k per year appreciation per year from 1996 to 2008, in the 3-4% range, similar to inflation.

With 20% down (44k) the loan is 176k, using 6% fixed it is $1055/mo. Another 400 for ins and tax and you are below $1500. I rented within a mile of that place less than 2 months ago and $1500 for a house of that size and garage count was not possible then or today. 1800 would be about right, I picked a smaller place with a 2 car for 1500. If you use the basic rule that tax and insurance are roughly wiped out by the income tax credit, the scenario is 1500 to rent or 1055 to buy a bigger place with a bigger garage within jogging range then it’s hard for me to think that there is another 100k of downside risk. You wanted to see one pencil out, here it is, buying is cheaper than rent and the 44k downpayment saved you 450 a month and unless you can get 10% interest on it, it is a better use of it. Once again, it’s a good thing I am not a big fan of vail ranch and I like an HOA which it doesn’t have, otherwise I might be on my way over with a check. The hoods i like are still hanging on the other side of the 300k fence, but it’s examples like these which are within walking distance of where i am shopping that will pull them over that fence fairly soon. Don’t be a permabear or a permabull matt, just be a permaanalyst.

Drink in moderation, heavy drinking often results in bringing home ugly women.

What the hell, you only live once, go with PD’s advice and Drink Heavily, a little ugly never killed anyone.

[Author]

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