Calling start of new Fool’s Rally – this morning

[Arraya]

Oil should be bottoming out if not rising soon. Some tar sands in Canada become uneconomical below 65ish along with some deep well projects. Plus, this is seriously screwing with oil producing countries and they will demand a production cut no matter what Saudi Arabia says.

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I’m still an amateur, try to learn more each day.

I’ll give you an example, where I’ve got lessons to learn.

I believe the pro’s trading this market are using aggressive bets to profit on the incredible volatility. They are essentially making educated guesses on the tops/bottoms of the extreme market swings, but here is the key point: they are protecting capital with comprehensive use of Stop Loss/Stop Limit/Limit orders.

Look at this morning. I sensed the bottom at -4%, but I was handicapped by my fears about betting a six figure amount of money long.

Here’s what I should have done.

When the markets stalled at -4% I did sense the bottom. My wife was standing next to me and I said to her, “We gotta go long. Look, here is another nice fool’s rally forming. I’m going to get another hundred grand bet on this one.” I started walking to the PC to place that trade and I got nervous about the risk, so I only placed a 1.5% (of portfolio) bet with option calls on the S&P500. I should have immediately bought $100K of SSO (or QLD) to go 2X leveraged long the S&P500 (or NASDAQ).

Then I should have put a STOP LOSS just 1% under my buy price, and let the markets roam UP and UP (or stop me out if they fell)

That strategy would have SAFELY earned me over $18,000 in less than eight hours! (Indexes closed UP a full 9% off that morning low, and SSO is 2X leveraged)

I need to get smarter!

Now I did make some smart plays today. I bought oil stocks in the morning (that paid off by 7% to 10% by end-of-day). I also made a couple percent trading gold from 790 to 805, intraday. And I made money on buying the China fund early in the morning. And later in the day I did finally buy (just $10K) of SSO , but I got nervous again (didn’t use a stop) and so I sold it for only a 2% gain in a day when I should have made much more on that play. Oh well.

The good news is that I have recovered ALL my losses (suffered in that horrible first week of October), and now I’ve even added to previous gains. That puts my portfolio up over 40% net for the last 12 months, and my wife’s ROTH is now up about 45%. She’s thrilled.

[stockstradr]

I’m still an amateur, try to learn more each day.

I’ll give you an example, where I’ve got lessons to learn.

I believe the pro’s trading this market are using aggressive bets to profit on the incredible volatility. They are essentially making educated guesses on the tops/bottoms of the extreme market swings, but here is the key point: they are protecting capital with comprehensive use of Stop Loss/Stop Limit/Limit orders.

Look at this morning. I sensed the bottom at -4%, but I was handicapped by my fears about betting a six figure amount of money long.

Here’s what I should have done.

When the markets stalled at -4% I did sense the bottom. My wife was standing next to me and I said to her, “We gotta go long. Look, here is another nice fool’s rally forming. I’m going to get another hundred grand bet on this one.” I started walking to the PC to place that trade and I got nervous about the risk, so I only placed a 1.5% (of portfolio) bet with option calls on the S&P500. I should have immediately bought $100K of SSO (or QLD) to go 2X leveraged long the S&P500 (or NASDAQ).

Then I should have put a STOP LOSS just 1% under my buy price, and let the markets roam UP and UP (or stop me out if they fell)

That strategy would have SAFELY earned me over $18,000 in less than eight hours! (Indexes closed UP a full 9% off that morning low, and SSO is 2X leveraged)

I need to get smarter!

Now I did make some smart plays today. I bought oil stocks in the morning (that paid off by 7% to 10% by end-of-day). I also made a couple percent trading gold from 790 to 805, intraday. And I made money on buying the China fund early in the morning. And later in the day I did finally buy (just $10K) of SSO , but I got nervous again (didn’t use a stop) and so I sold it for only a 2% gain in a day when I should have made much more on that play. Oh well.

The good news is that I have recovered ALL my losses (suffered in that horrible first week of October), and now I’ve even added to previous gains. That puts my portfolio up over 40% net for the last 12 months, and my wife’s ROTH is now up about 45%. She’s thrilled.

[stockstradr]

I’m still an amateur, try to learn more each day.

I’ll give you an example, where I’ve got lessons to learn.

I believe the pro’s trading this market are using aggressive bets to profit on the incredible volatility. They are essentially making educated guesses on the tops/bottoms of the extreme market swings, but here is the key point: they are protecting capital with comprehensive use of Stop Loss/Stop Limit/Limit orders.

Look at this morning. I sensed the bottom at -4%, but I was handicapped by my fears about betting a six figure amount of money long.

Here’s what I should have done.

When the markets stalled at -4% I did sense the bottom. My wife was standing next to me and I said to her, “We gotta go long. Look, here is another nice fool’s rally forming. I’m going to get another hundred grand bet on this one.” I started walking to the PC to place that trade and I got nervous about the risk, so I only placed a 1.5% (of portfolio) bet with option calls on the S&P500. I should have immediately bought $100K of SSO (or QLD) to go 2X leveraged long the S&P500 (or NASDAQ).

Then I should have put a STOP LOSS just 1% under my buy price, and let the markets roam UP and UP (or stop me out if they fell)

That strategy would have SAFELY earned me over $18,000 in less than eight hours! (Indexes closed UP a full 9% off that morning low, and SSO is 2X leveraged)

I need to get smarter!

Now I did make some smart plays today. I bought oil stocks in the morning (that paid off by 7% to 10% by end-of-day). I also made a couple percent trading gold from 790 to 805, intraday. And I made money on buying the China fund early in the morning. And later in the day I did finally buy (just $10K) of SSO , but I got nervous again (didn’t use a stop) and so I sold it for only a 2% gain in a day when I should have made much more on that play. Oh well.

The good news is that I have recovered ALL my losses (suffered in that horrible first week of October), and now I’ve even added to previous gains. That puts my portfolio up over 40% net for the last 12 months, and my wife’s ROTH is now up about 45%. She’s thrilled.

[stockstradr]

I’m still an amateur, try to learn more each day.

I’ll give you an example, where I’ve got lessons to learn.

I believe the pro’s trading this market are using aggressive bets to profit on the incredible volatility. They are essentially making educated guesses on the tops/bottoms of the extreme market swings, but here is the key point: they are protecting capital with comprehensive use of Stop Loss/Stop Limit/Limit orders.

Look at this morning. I sensed the bottom at -4%, but I was handicapped by my fears about betting a six figure amount of money long.

Here’s what I should have done.

When the markets stalled at -4% I did sense the bottom. My wife was standing next to me and I said to her, “We gotta go long. Look, here is another nice fool’s rally forming. I’m going to get another hundred grand bet on this one.” I started walking to the PC to place that trade and I got nervous about the risk, so I only placed a 1.5% (of portfolio) bet with option calls on the S&P500. I should have immediately bought $100K of SSO (or QLD) to go 2X leveraged long the S&P500 (or NASDAQ).

Then I should have put a STOP LOSS just 1% under my buy price, and let the markets roam UP and UP (or stop me out if they fell)

That strategy would have SAFELY earned me over $18,000 in less than eight hours! (Indexes closed UP a full 9% off that morning low, and SSO is 2X leveraged)

I need to get smarter!

Now I did make some smart plays today. I bought oil stocks in the morning (that paid off by 7% to 10% by end-of-day). I also made a couple percent trading gold from 790 to 805, intraday. And I made money on buying the China fund early in the morning. And later in the day I did finally buy (just $10K) of SSO , but I got nervous again (didn’t use a stop) and so I sold it for only a 2% gain in a day when I should have made much more on that play. Oh well.

The good news is that I have recovered ALL my losses (suffered in that horrible first week of October), and now I’ve even added to previous gains. That puts my portfolio up over 40% net for the last 12 months, and my wife’s ROTH is now up about 45%. She’s thrilled.

[stockstradr]

I’m still an amateur, try to learn more each day.

I’ll give you an example, where I’ve got lessons to learn.

I believe the pro’s trading this market are using aggressive bets to profit on the incredible volatility. They are essentially making educated guesses on the tops/bottoms of the extreme market swings, but here is the key point: they are protecting capital with comprehensive use of Stop Loss/Stop Limit/Limit orders.

Look at this morning. I sensed the bottom at -4%, but I was handicapped by my fears about betting a six figure amount of money long.

Here’s what I should have done.

When the markets stalled at -4% I did sense the bottom. My wife was standing next to me and I said to her, “We gotta go long. Look, here is another nice fool’s rally forming. I’m going to get another hundred grand bet on this one.” I started walking to the PC to place that trade and I got nervous about the risk, so I only placed a 1.5% (of portfolio) bet with option calls on the S&P500. I should have immediately bought $100K of SSO (or QLD) to go 2X leveraged long the S&P500 (or NASDAQ).

Then I should have put a STOP LOSS just 1% under my buy price, and let the markets roam UP and UP (or stop me out if they fell)

That strategy would have SAFELY earned me over $18,000 in less than eight hours! (Indexes closed UP a full 9% off that morning low, and SSO is 2X leveraged)

I need to get smarter!

Now I did make some smart plays today. I bought oil stocks in the morning (that paid off by 7% to 10% by end-of-day). I also made a couple percent trading gold from 790 to 805, intraday. And I made money on buying the China fund early in the morning. And later in the day I did finally buy (just $10K) of SSO , but I got nervous again (didn’t use a stop) and so I sold it for only a 2% gain in a day when I should have made much more on that play. Oh well.

The good news is that I have recovered ALL my losses (suffered in that horrible first week of October), and now I’ve even added to previous gains. That puts my portfolio up over 40% net for the last 12 months, and my wife’s ROTH is now up about 45%. She’s thrilled.

[stockstradr]

Check out AAPL April 09 45 puts at $3. Sell the put, worst case buy AAPL at 45?

Short-term, if I’m right about the rally, then a RISKY bet is that AAPL goes higher. Personally, I bought it at $91.5 on 10/08/2008 then dumped it at $100.

Apple’s TRAILING P/E is about 20. Did you notice the world “trailing”! I wanna know AAPL’s FORWARD P/E for the case of trying to sell NON-essential products like iPods IN A DEPRESSION, plus lets factor in Steve Jobs could die any day (which would be a horrible day for the World to lose such a visionary man.)

I say let AAPL stock shoot itself up to whatever it reaches when the S&P500 tops out this fool’s rally at about 1100 or 1200 (optimistically). Then short AAPL.

I think you ARE correct that we’ll see AAPL under $50 before the end of 2009.

My favorite play of the week?

I bought Goldman Sachs at $81.5 and sold it two days later for $123. I don’t get the chance very often to outsmart Warren Buffet, who recently paid a much higher price for his GS!

[stockstradr]

Check out AAPL April 09 45 puts at $3. Sell the put, worst case buy AAPL at 45?

Short-term, if I’m right about the rally, then a RISKY bet is that AAPL goes higher. Personally, I bought it at $91.5 on 10/08/2008 then dumped it at $100.

Apple’s TRAILING P/E is about 20. Did you notice the world “trailing”! I wanna know AAPL’s FORWARD P/E for the case of trying to sell NON-essential products like iPods IN A DEPRESSION, plus lets factor in Steve Jobs could die any day (which would be a horrible day for the World to lose such a visionary man.)

I say let AAPL stock shoot itself up to whatever it reaches when the S&P500 tops out this fool’s rally at about 1100 or 1200 (optimistically). Then short AAPL.

I think you ARE correct that we’ll see AAPL under $50 before the end of 2009.

My favorite play of the week?

I bought Goldman Sachs at $81.5 and sold it two days later for $123. I don’t get the chance very often to outsmart Warren Buffet, who recently paid a much higher price for his GS!

[stockstradr]

Check out AAPL April 09 45 puts at $3. Sell the put, worst case buy AAPL at 45?

Short-term, if I’m right about the rally, then a RISKY bet is that AAPL goes higher. Personally, I bought it at $91.5 on 10/08/2008 then dumped it at $100.

Apple’s TRAILING P/E is about 20. Did you notice the world “trailing”! I wanna know AAPL’s FORWARD P/E for the case of trying to sell NON-essential products like iPods IN A DEPRESSION, plus lets factor in Steve Jobs could die any day (which would be a horrible day for the World to lose such a visionary man.)

I say let AAPL stock shoot itself up to whatever it reaches when the S&P500 tops out this fool’s rally at about 1100 or 1200 (optimistically). Then short AAPL.

I think you ARE correct that we’ll see AAPL under $50 before the end of 2009.

My favorite play of the week?

I bought Goldman Sachs at $81.5 and sold it two days later for $123. I don’t get the chance very often to outsmart Warren Buffet, who recently paid a much higher price for his GS!

[stockstradr]

Check out AAPL April 09 45 puts at $3. Sell the put, worst case buy AAPL at 45?

Short-term, if I’m right about the rally, then a RISKY bet is that AAPL goes higher. Personally, I bought it at $91.5 on 10/08/2008 then dumped it at $100.

Apple’s TRAILING P/E is about 20. Did you notice the world “trailing”! I wanna know AAPL’s FORWARD P/E for the case of trying to sell NON-essential products like iPods IN A DEPRESSION, plus lets factor in Steve Jobs could die any day (which would be a horrible day for the World to lose such a visionary man.)

I say let AAPL stock shoot itself up to whatever it reaches when the S&P500 tops out this fool’s rally at about 1100 or 1200 (optimistically). Then short AAPL.

I think you ARE correct that we’ll see AAPL under $50 before the end of 2009.

My favorite play of the week?

I bought Goldman Sachs at $81.5 and sold it two days later for $123. I don’t get the chance very often to outsmart Warren Buffet, who recently paid a much higher price for his GS!

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