Yes, people in usually bad at understanding negative feedback loops. The current economic crisis reminds me of some of the problems with climate models and global warming; as the earth is warming much faster than anyone anticipated again due to not taking into account negative feedback loops.
I agree that time lags are a huge issue. I’ve said for the last year that October ’08 would be a watershed month for our economy. Why? It was six months past the peak of subprime ARM resets. Ergo, that is about when the shockwave would hit the financial markets. I think many, many folks are going to be deeply surprised at the breadth and depth of the downturn over the next few years.
Re: casual observations.
I’ll disagree. I live in Hillcrest and it seems much less busy than usual for this time of year. Highway traffic also seems light and I park closer to the entrance at CostCo everytime I shop there. Plus they only have a few registers open and I still don’t have to wait long at all.
esmith: You are correct. You must be an engineer.
And apparently Roubini, Mish, and other economists using these terms have hijacked them and are using them incorrectly.
The old term, vicious cycle, has been replaced by the more grandiose conversation-stopper, NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP. But you are right–it means a self-dampening process, neither good nor bad, positive nor negative.
Kewp, I’ve had the opposite experience, seeing a 90% empty restaurant at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, and a Home Depot with many idle clerks and empty registers. Shows we can’t trust anecdotal evidence (including mine).
esmith: You are correct. You must be an engineer.
And apparently Roubini, Mish, and other economists using these terms have hijacked them and are using them incorrectly.
The old term, vicious cycle, has been replaced by the more grandiose conversation-stopper, NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP. But you are right–it means a self-dampening process, neither good nor bad, positive nor negative.
Kewp, I’ve had the opposite experience, seeing a 90% empty restaurant at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, and a Home Depot with many idle clerks and empty registers. Shows we can’t trust anecdotal evidence (including mine).
esmith: You are correct. You must be an engineer.
And apparently Roubini, Mish, and other economists using these terms have hijacked them and are using them incorrectly.
The old term, vicious cycle, has been replaced by the more grandiose conversation-stopper, NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP. But you are right–it means a self-dampening process, neither good nor bad, positive nor negative.
Kewp, I’ve had the opposite experience, seeing a 90% empty restaurant at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, and a Home Depot with many idle clerks and empty registers. Shows we can’t trust anecdotal evidence (including mine).
esmith: You are correct. You must be an engineer.
And apparently Roubini, Mish, and other economists using these terms have hijacked them and are using them incorrectly.
The old term, vicious cycle, has been replaced by the more grandiose conversation-stopper, NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP. But you are right–it means a self-dampening process, neither good nor bad, positive nor negative.
Kewp, I’ve had the opposite experience, seeing a 90% empty restaurant at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, and a Home Depot with many idle clerks and empty registers. Shows we can’t trust anecdotal evidence (including mine).
esmith: You are correct. You must be an engineer.
And apparently Roubini, Mish, and other economists using these terms have hijacked them and are using them incorrectly.
The old term, vicious cycle, has been replaced by the more grandiose conversation-stopper, NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP. But you are right–it means a self-dampening process, neither good nor bad, positive nor negative.
Kewp, I’ve had the opposite experience, seeing a 90% empty restaurant at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday, and a Home Depot with many idle clerks and empty registers. Shows we can’t trust anecdotal evidence (including mine).
