CA losing jobs to rest of the country?

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=EconProf]Since the recession of 2008 CA job numbers are up 7.5% compared to a 14.8% jump for Texas (St. Louis Federal Reserve).
As for GDP, CA up 11.3%, Texas up 38.2%

I’m guessing the low tax, business friendly states of AZ and NV are also welcoming refugees from CA.

Lots of other useful data from a Scripps Ranch economist, Richard Rider, at riderrantsblogspot.com.[/quote]

Economists say that people make rational decisions. So if Texas is so good, why don’t people who think so move there?

You know… mobility of labor, voting with your feet, etc…

If you stay in California, the CPU in your brain must have taken all the available data and computed a superior NPV for remaining here.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=temeculaguy] I would think the most liberal state in the union, the one who supposedly cares about the environment the most would be doing what it could to deport legal and illegal aliens as best it can at least to other states.
[/quote]

Actually, no. People who care about the environment want density in large cities to take advantage of economies of scale so that we can leave the rest of the world unspoiled. We don’t want urban sprawl, suburban sprawl, exurban sprawl, and unnecessary development of rural areas. We view the environment on a world wide scale. So we do welcome immigrants to come, rise from poverty, and enjoy our already developed infrastructure.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=temeculaguy] I had to go to L.A. today, albeit it was raining but it took me 3 hours and 45 minutes to go 65 miles.

[/quote]
If I remember right you were about to retire soon TG.

The good thing about being retired is you are generally in no rush to go anywhere and you can mostly choose to drive not in rush hours. the biggest issue my mother has with crowds and traffic is when she goes to Costco.

[svelte]

lol.

Oh, the perennial thread.

In 2009, the state was going to fail:

https://piggington.com/off_topic_will_california_become_america039s_first_failed_state

https://piggington.com/california_hemorrhages_jobs

https://piggington.com/ca_state_budget_passed_state039s_dmeise_imminent

The state was doomed in 2010:

https://piggington.com/why_california_is_doomed

People were leaving in 2012:

https://piggington.com/leaving_california

https://piggington.com/the_great_california_exodus

People were leaving in 2013

https://piggington.com/people_arent_leaving_ca_in_droves_at_least_according_to_the_unit

Jobs were leaving in 2014

https://piggington.com/toyota_moving_out_ca_tx

https://piggington.com/companies_relocating_out_san_diego

Funny, you’d think we’d all be living in hovels by now given these accurate predictions of yore.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=temeculaguy] I had to go to L.A. today, albeit it was raining but it took me 3 hours and 45 minutes to go 65 miles.

[/quote]
If I remember right you were about to retire soon TG.

The good thing about being retired is you are generally in no rush to go anywhere and you can mostly choose to drive not in rush hours. the biggest issue my mother has with crowds and traffic is when she goes to Costco.[/quote]

All true, especially about Costco, that place never seems to slow down no matter when you go.

I was just venting, I know the population will continue to increase here no matter what and it shouldn’t affect me too much, retired or not. Like others I bitch about this state at times but I’ve been to many other places and I’m not sure I’d be happier there even if the taxes are lower. I think the biggest hurdle to being in Cali is the housing cost, once you purchase you’ve fixed those costs. Purchasing with a mortgage isn’t really an investment so much as 30 years of rent control.

Of the friends I have that have retired and left the state or the country, the happy ones are those who did it for reasons other than cost of living.

[EconProf]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=EconProf]Since the recession of 2008 CA job numbers are up 7.5% compared to a 14.8% jump for Texas (St. Louis Federal Reserve).
As for GDP, CA up 11.3%, Texas up 38.2%

I’m guessing the low tax, business friendly states of AZ and NV are also welcoming refugees from CA.

Lots of other useful data from a Scripps Ranch economist, Richard Rider, at riderrantsblogspot.com.[/quote]

Economists say that people make rational decisions. So if Texas is so good, why don’t people who think so move there?

You know… mobility of labor, voting with your feet, etc…

If you stay in California, the CPU in your brain must have taken all the available data and computed a superior NPV for remaining here.[/quote]

Actually FIH, it is pretty well documented that outmigration from CA to other states far exceeds in-migration from other states. Our population still grows due to a higher than average birth rate plus the influx of foreigners, legal and illegal.
They leave not only for jobs but the lower taxes and cost of living. Your money simply goes farther.
Allow me to cite my own examples, since I spend half my days in San Diego and half in Yuma, AZ, two and a half hours east of El Cajon, (we own and manage commercial properties in and around Yuma).
A typical Mira Mesa house (3,2, 1600 SF) would cost $220,000 in a good Yuma suburb. Property taxes, @ 2% of market value would be less than the roughly 1.25% of the Mira Mesa house value.
BTW, That MM type house would rent for $1,000 in Yuma.
Yes, AC costs may be $300 during the summer, but drop to $100 in and around winter. Water and sewer bills much lower.
Since traffic is lighter and most everything is within twenty minutes, commuting costs are lower and you save scads of time in your day.
Gasoline is $2.09. Hired labor is cheap. Tonight we will go see La La Land for $5.50 each. Groceries are far cheaper, even compared to the same
grocery chain as San Diego. Fruit and vegetables are cheaper because Yuma is the salad capital of the country.
As for state income taxes, mine are 60% lower in AZ compared to CA, which has the highest rates in the nation.
I suspect Texas is much like Yuma in these respects (except no income tax whatsoever). In short, one’s standard of living depends heavily on the differing cost of taxes, goods, and services in each area.

[svelte]

[quote=EconProf]Since the recession of 2008 CA job numbers are up 7.5% compared to a 14.8% jump for Texas (St. Louis Federal Reserve).
As for GDP, CA up 11.3%, Texas up 38.2%

I’m guessing the low tax, business friendly states of AZ and NV are also welcoming refugees from CA.

Lots of other useful data from a Scripps Ranch economist, Richard Rider, at riderrantsblogspot.com.[/quote]

Two sides to every story. You’ve highlighted one side only.

In recent years, California has experienced negative domestic migration, meaning more people are moving from California to other states than the number of residents moving to California from other parts of the country. Statistics on the characteristics of California’s inbound and outbound migrants suggest patterns in migration over the past decade are more related to housing costs than tax structure. Despite seeing an overall negative net domestic migration, California is continuing to attract new residents. Despite the rhetoric regarding California’s oppressive tax regime or its overall hostility to business, individuals coming to California are primarily concentrated in high-wage occupations, which enable them to better absorb the state’s high housing costs and cost of living.

The report’s main findings include:
– California experienced a negative net domestic migration of 625,000 from 2007 to 2014. In other words, 625,000 more people moved out of California to other states than moved in to California from other states.

– The vast majority of the out-migrants went to just five states: Texas, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, and Washington.

– California was a net importer of residents from 15 states and the District of Columbia from 2007 to 2014.

– Californians 25 years of age and over that do not possess four-year college degrees accounted for over 469,800 out-migrants.

– California was actually a net importer of nearly 52,700 residents with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

– California remains the top state attracting international migrants, many of which are low-income earners and those that have obtained a bachelor’s degree.

http://next10.org/ca-migration

Looks like those with higher earning potential are coming here not leaving. Those with lower income are leaving and being replaced by immigrants.

I don’t think high earners are coming here and not working…they must be finding employment…

[Coronita]

svelte,

That probably makes sense to what we’re seeing in CA. High skills, higher paid jobs are in CA drives more people with those skills to come here. And people with those higher income levels can deal with the higher cost of living and taxes. Probably still more opportunity than many other places in the u.s.

People without those skills and who can’t obtain those skills are being driven out of the state due to the cost of living and availability of those jobs, which is getting harder to sustain in CA. And probably, their standard of living would be better off elsewhere.

[Coronita]

[quote=EconProf]

Actually FIH, it is pretty well documented that outmigration from CA to other states far exceeds in-migration from other states. Our population still grows due to a higher than average birth rate plus the influx of foreigners, legal and illegal.
They leave not only for jobs but the lower taxes and cost of living. Your money simply goes farther.
Allow me to cite my own examples, since I spend half my days in San Diego and half in Yuma, AZ, two and a half hours east of El Cajon, (we own and manage commercial properties in and around Yuma).
A typical Mira Mesa house (3,2, 1600 SF) would cost $220,000 in a good Yuma suburb. Property taxes, @ 2% of market value would be less than the roughly 1.25% of the Mira Mesa house value.
BTW, That MM type house would rent for $1,000 in Yuma.
Yes, AC costs may be $300 during the summer, but drop to $100 in and around winter. Water and sewer bills much lower.
Since traffic is lighter and most everything is within twenty minutes, commuting costs are lower and you save scads of time in your day.
Gasoline is $2.09. Hired labor is cheap. Tonight we will go see La La Land for $5.50 each. Groceries are far cheaper, even compared to the same
grocery chain as San Diego. Fruit and vegetables are cheaper because Yuma is the salad capital of the country.
As for state income taxes, mine are 60% lower in AZ compared to CA, which has the highest rates in the nation.
I suspect Texas is much like Yuma in these respects (except no income tax whatsoever). In short, one’s standard of living depends heavily on the differing cost of taxes, goods, and services in each area.[/quote]

Yes, but I doubt you can find all the biotech and engineering jobs in Yuma as you can in Sorrento Valley….And because you have all those biotech and engineering jobs, you have people spending that can support all the ancillary businesses in the neighborhood, restaurants,shops, day care, kids activity businesses, etc,etc,etc. And since you have mom and dad in techville, mom and dad probably ends up spending money on little jane on john to send them to thinkgs like kumon and piano/violin lessons, etc,etc because they want them to be little tiger moms and tiger dads when they grow up.

Hence why MM is where it is where it is.

[an]

svelte, I totally agree there’s two side to every story. What you and EconProf states can both be true and I feel CA’s public policies end result will yield exactly what the public officials complain about and wanted to fix (high wealth/income disparity). You have people who have high paying jobs who can survive here and stay. You’ll have people who are on welfare and section 8 who can afford to live here. All the people who are in the middle can no longer afford to live here, hence, they’ll move out and data shows it. I don’t see this trend reversing either.

As for those high paying jobs, if you net out cost of living, I don’t think those high tech W-2er are better off here. They just have more opportunities, but once they have a decent job, their pay vs rent isn’t as good as places like TX. But our weather and diversity here is awesome, so, people who can stretch it will stay/move in and put up w/ the higher cost of living.

The question is, what would happen when this migration trend continue for a few more decades. What would happen to all the rural area and small cities of CA? If you make min wage and live in Bakersfield, why wouldn’t you just move to places like Waco,TX? Weather is about the same, but you can buy a small house for <$100k vs $200k in Bakersfield. Also, in the big cities, I think that with more blue collar working (plumber/electrician/etc) moving out, those who are left will charge more for their service to afford the cost of living and due to simple supply/demand. So, net income for those high tech earner might not be so great.

[an]

[quote=flu]Yes, but I doubt you can find all the biotech and engineering jobs in Yuma as you can in Sorrento Valley….And because you have all those biotech and engineering jobs, you have people spending that can support all the ancillary businesses in the neighborhood, restaurants,shops, day care, kids activity businesses, etc,etc,etc. And since you have mom and dad in techville, mom and dad probably ends up spending money on little jane on john to send them to thinkgs like kumon and piano/violin lessons, etc,etc because they want them to be little tiger moms and tiger dads when they grow up.

Hence why MM is where it is where it is.[/quote]Mira Mesa might be a bad example, since MM is a town w/in a big city, while Yuma is a city in and of itself. Although, the population is about the same. Might be better to compare Yuma with Palmdale or El Centro. Those are small town that’s not near major metro cities.

[Coronita]

[quote=AN]

As for those high paying jobs, if you net out cost of living, I don’t think those high tech W-2er are better off here. They just have more opportunities, but once they have a decent job, their pay vs rent isn’t as good as places like TX. But our weather and diversity here is awesome, so, people who can stretch it will stay/move in and put up w/ the higher cost of living.

[/quote]

There might be not much of a choice. There might not be a comparable job elsewhere. For software and lesser extent hardware, your skills probably more readily transferable opportunity to opportunity all over the U.S…But I think for a lot of the high tech jobs, IE biotech, these jobs aren’t prevalent across the U.S…So that’s also maybe why you have some migration here, despite the cost of living. Defense business is another area prone to migration in and out depending on the political winds of change.

[quote]
The question is, what would happen when this migration trend continue for a few more decades. What would happen to all the rural area and small cities of CA? If you make min wage and live in Bakersfield, why wouldn’t you just move to places like Waco,TX? Weather is about the same, but you can buy a small house for <$100k vs $200k in Bakersfield. Also, in the big cities, I think that with more blue collar working (plumber/electrician/etc) moving out, those who are left will charge more for their service to afford the cost of living and due to simple supply/demand. So, net income for those high tech earner might not be so great. [/quote] True.. I look at that as more problems for engineers and automation/robotics to solve :)... Maybe we get to a point that for some types of work, we simply don't need as many people to do those jobs anymore. Eventually, there will be some equilibrium. Whether it's increasing minimum wage, which leads to companies depending on more machines and/or increasing consumer costs, or both.... When that happens, don't know.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=EconProf]

Actually FIH, it is pretty well documented that outmigration from CA to other states far exceeds in-migration from other states. Our population still grows due to a higher than average birth rate plus the influx of foreigners, legal and illegal.
They leave not only for jobs but the lower taxes and cost of living. Your money simply goes farther.
Allow me to cite my own examples, since I spend half my days in San Diego and half in Yuma, AZ,
[/quote]

Econprof, you invest in Yuma, and I invest in Las Vegas where I get higher returns, and where I enjoy the bling. Those are individual choices.

But, in the aggregate, so what if domestic outmigration is higher? Economically speaking, people/customers/businesses vote with their feet, because using all the available data, they decide that the price of living in California is worth it, or not.

Economists love elasticity of labor and demographic fluidity. The fact that California attracts international and domestic immigrants, who may stay here for a while then move on to other states is a competitive advantage. As long as we are able to attract those who are able and willing to pay the price of admission, and still grow in population and GPD, then where’re golden. That raises the bar and forces people to be competitive to prosper.

It’s not much different than selling widgets for what the market will bear, and still be able to grow revenue, profits, and the customer base. If one wants to buy the expensive brands, one has to somehow make the money to afford it (save money, work harder, make some sacrifices in some areas, etc… doesn’t matter). California is the premium brand of states.

[Anonymous]

Is someone actually trying to make a point by comparing Mira Mesa and Yuma?

[Anonymous]

Dup

[Author]

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