Buy now – the bidding war will drive prices up

[NotCranky]

“I don’t even think we are half way to a bottom yet. Flame on, but there is still too many homes out there at too high of prices.”

This is the way I think the bottom comes in.

Currently there is a ton of inventory and three houses of that inventory are going to sell at lows for the cycle this month. Next month 10 will do the same. A few months later 30. You get he idea. Later 50 but there is still a ton of inventory. Prices get to where a very large percentage are selling near cycle lows but inventory is still pretty up there. Eventually for all practical purposes the PRICE correction is over. Where is inventory? I think it could be some what elevated still? I was looking for a chart that might reflect the lag between these two items that we can expect. It is a question more than a statement, your post made me wonder.

The numbers are totally concocted to express a view contrary to the, everyone is a stupid knife catcher until I say it isn’t so. As good as it gets deals will be a combination of rates and price for some as opposed to a pure price bottom.(that would be pretty hard to time so it makes these aggressive rate hyping realtors laughable). I think we should not be too haughty because people are starting to make good deals on purchases. Kind of hard to tell which ones but they will trickle in. Some of those people just bought into future bragging rights instead of catching a knife.The rest caught a knife which sunk to varying depths, some will be lethal and some will be mere flesh wounds.

Just food for thought. Flaming welcome as always.

[Doofrat]

Supply and demand did not cause the bubble, they (increased demand and less supply) were the result of loose credit. The loose credit is not there anymore and that is what’s causing demand to drop and therefore supply to increase.

I think trying to say that because there is so much supply, prices have come down and as a result more people will buy this supply at these lower prices is missing the root cause of the bubble and completely ignoring the role that loose credit has played.

Sure, a few people who can still get credit will pick up a few foreclosures, a few people might sell a house in another state and move here, etc. etc. etc., but unless the banks start giving out free money again, demand isn’t going to come back with any force IMHO.

[Doofrat]

Supply and demand did not cause the bubble, they (increased demand and less supply) were the result of loose credit. The loose credit is not there anymore and that is what’s causing demand to drop and therefore supply to increase.

I think trying to say that because there is so much supply, prices have come down and as a result more people will buy this supply at these lower prices is missing the root cause of the bubble and completely ignoring the role that loose credit has played.

Sure, a few people who can still get credit will pick up a few foreclosures, a few people might sell a house in another state and move here, etc. etc. etc., but unless the banks start giving out free money again, demand isn’t going to come back with any force IMHO.

[Doofrat]

Supply and demand did not cause the bubble, they (increased demand and less supply) were the result of loose credit. The loose credit is not there anymore and that is what’s causing demand to drop and therefore supply to increase.

I think trying to say that because there is so much supply, prices have come down and as a result more people will buy this supply at these lower prices is missing the root cause of the bubble and completely ignoring the role that loose credit has played.

Sure, a few people who can still get credit will pick up a few foreclosures, a few people might sell a house in another state and move here, etc. etc. etc., but unless the banks start giving out free money again, demand isn’t going to come back with any force IMHO.

[Doofrat]

Supply and demand did not cause the bubble, they (increased demand and less supply) were the result of loose credit. The loose credit is not there anymore and that is what’s causing demand to drop and therefore supply to increase.

I think trying to say that because there is so much supply, prices have come down and as a result more people will buy this supply at these lower prices is missing the root cause of the bubble and completely ignoring the role that loose credit has played.

Sure, a few people who can still get credit will pick up a few foreclosures, a few people might sell a house in another state and move here, etc. etc. etc., but unless the banks start giving out free money again, demand isn’t going to come back with any force IMHO.

[Doofrat]

Supply and demand did not cause the bubble, they (increased demand and less supply) were the result of loose credit. The loose credit is not there anymore and that is what’s causing demand to drop and therefore supply to increase.

I think trying to say that because there is so much supply, prices have come down and as a result more people will buy this supply at these lower prices is missing the root cause of the bubble and completely ignoring the role that loose credit has played.

Sure, a few people who can still get credit will pick up a few foreclosures, a few people might sell a house in another state and move here, etc. etc. etc., but unless the banks start giving out free money again, demand isn’t going to come back with any force IMHO.

[sdduuuude]

Yaaaaaawn.

Someone wake me up when the first year-over-year sales growth figure doesn’t have a “-” sign in front of it.

[sdduuuude]

Yaaaaaawn.

Someone wake me up when the first year-over-year sales growth figure doesn’t have a “-” sign in front of it.

[sdduuuude]

Yaaaaaawn.

Someone wake me up when the first year-over-year sales growth figure doesn’t have a “-” sign in front of it.

[sdduuuude]

Yaaaaaawn.

Someone wake me up when the first year-over-year sales growth figure doesn’t have a “-” sign in front of it.

[sdduuuude]

Yaaaaaawn.

Someone wake me up when the first year-over-year sales growth figure doesn’t have a “-” sign in front of it.

[SHILOH]

THere are a lot of overbuilt areas (too much inventory), loss of jobs, tightening credit. Unless it’s one single home in a superb location that everyone wants…I can’t understand how there would be a bidding war –just because 30 year fixed rates are attractive.
WIth the current “implosion” of the financial industry I am wondering what will happen in the coming waves of reset.
It seems the only direction prices can go is down. It took Japan about 16 years to recover from their bubble.

[SHILOH]

THere are a lot of overbuilt areas (too much inventory), loss of jobs, tightening credit. Unless it’s one single home in a superb location that everyone wants…I can’t understand how there would be a bidding war –just because 30 year fixed rates are attractive.
WIth the current “implosion” of the financial industry I am wondering what will happen in the coming waves of reset.
It seems the only direction prices can go is down. It took Japan about 16 years to recover from their bubble.

[SHILOH]

THere are a lot of overbuilt areas (too much inventory), loss of jobs, tightening credit. Unless it’s one single home in a superb location that everyone wants…I can’t understand how there would be a bidding war –just because 30 year fixed rates are attractive.
WIth the current “implosion” of the financial industry I am wondering what will happen in the coming waves of reset.
It seems the only direction prices can go is down. It took Japan about 16 years to recover from their bubble.

[SHILOH]

THere are a lot of overbuilt areas (too much inventory), loss of jobs, tightening credit. Unless it’s one single home in a superb location that everyone wants…I can’t understand how there would be a bidding war –just because 30 year fixed rates are attractive.
WIth the current “implosion” of the financial industry I am wondering what will happen in the coming waves of reset.
It seems the only direction prices can go is down. It took Japan about 16 years to recover from their bubble.

[Author]

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