Bob Casagrand’s March 2006 Real Estate Report

[sdrealtor]

He didnt account for that because I checked his numbers which were wrong. He took out the 92078 shadow zips but last years 92009 data is this years 92009 + 92011 data. He doesnt understand the geography. Stop trying to defend someone who is wrong it makes you look silly. He presents analysis on the entire county when he doesnt know the entire county. It would be like me trying to present myself as an expert on on Poway or Lakeside;)

[powayseller]

When 92111 was created the mls goes back and restates the sales figures into the appropriate zip code. If
this were not done then all of the mls reports and statistics would be meaningless. Why are there sales in 92111 before the zip was created?

[sdrealtor]

Sorry but that just doesnt happen. It would be extraordinarily difficult. BTW It’s 92011 not 92111. The sales prior to June 2005 for 92011 are in 92009. Even after the switch alot of the realtors still put listings in 92011 in 92009. Some still do today! Similarly, 92008 was split into 92008 and 92010 last year. Two years ago 92083 was split into 92083 and 92081 in Vista. Before that 92069 was split into 92069 and 92078 in San Marcos. These are just a few of the changes that make the data flawed in major ways. There are many many more challenges with the data then you could beleive.

Your statement that if they didnt restate things the MLS reports and statistics would be meaningless is not far from the truth. You really need an indepth knowledge about a specific area to know whats going on. All this analysis is good and fine but as I have said many times…there are numerous flaws in the data collection. The best analysis on what is going on still comes from an experienced, knowledgable local realtor or appraiser.

[barnaby33]

Um excuse me and this applies to everyone here. Since when is 500k a first time buyer? I make more than 75% of the households on my own and I am not looking at 500k for a first time purchase. Based on a Rich’s article last week in the Voice, I am looking at 360k tops.

Josh

[Jim Brubaker]

SDrealtor your last sentence is easy to choke on.

“The best analysis on what is going on still comes from an experienced, knowledgable local realtor or appraiser.”

The only difference between a used car dealer and a real estate agent, is the number of payments. The only difference between an appraiser and a con artist, the con artist has to know what he’s doing.

I read the April link to Bob Casagrams’s column. It looks like he summerized about 20 blogs that I read daily. After reading his April column, I don’t think your average buyer would be ready to buy a house from any realtor–let alone him.

His candidness is going to cut into his sales. A good realtor keeps his mouth shut and is a very good listener. I think your being too hard on the guy. He’s going to starve to death selling real estate, with articles as good as his last one.

I’ve got a valid real estate license so I’ve got some room to talk.

[Farls]

Realtor vs. Car Salesman

(In fairness….and full disclosure…I was a Realtor in San Diego from 1999-2005 and happily left San Diego to live in Asia last August. I was involved in around 100 real estate transactions mostly of condos and entry-level houses. I’m a bubble believer and even used Rich’s data on my marketing materials. Towards the end of my real estate career I worked mainly with sellers who thought it was a good time to “cash out” or buyers who planned on owning the same house for a long time and locked a long-term interest rate. I could sleep at night with a clear conscience the way I dealt with my clients and never promised a constant appreciation in home value).

Jim,
Can you please expand on your saying that “The only difference between a used car salesman and a real estate agent is the number of payments”. What are the specific similarities?

I’ve read your previous posts and obviously you’re a smart guy. But this is just a dumb statement by you. Especially for someone with a real estate license. (Do you really need the support of “Herd Menatlity” or “Misery Loves Company” people to back up your statement?) Have you ever done a real estate deal as an agent for a client? I’ll bet it took a lot more work than the work of a car salesman….

As far as Mr. Casagrand’s report……Great, we agree he put out a report that was well thought out and had some good data. He should stick to writing articles rather than trying to list and sell real estate because he obviously isn’t very good at that even with all his impressive credentials…..With all this data and powerful knowledge he still could do plenty of deals with a healthy conscience.

A few other tid-bits:
SDRealtor: I appreciate your posts….although I’m getting a little dizzy with the Carlsbad zip code ones…….But I think you did an excellent job on showing the Realtor bashers the things that a good Realtor does to get homes sold…and the questions potential sellers should be asking Realtors before they hire one…I also loved the research on “Top-Producer” Mr. Casagrand.

Powayseller: I love your posts…Sometimes a little too much Realtor bashing….Maybe in the interest of full disclosure we should change your name to Poway(SchoolDistrict) Seller..haha just kidding. I’m concerned about the US dollar (as it’s slid 10% here in The Philippines in just the last few months)…and I don’t think A Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac collapse is out of the question either…We’ll watch and see…

A few other things:
Not all Realtors are good at what they do…
Not all real estate agents are Realtors…
Being a real estate agent is a much more difficult profession than most people think.
Even though I earned gross commissions in 2005 of over $175,000 I was happy to leave the business…

Sorry for the rambling….

Farls

[JJGittes]

sdrealtor,
since you focus on the area, what is your view of 92009 and 92011 right now? I am thinking of selling (need a bigger house), but I am not desparate. After selling, I suppose we could rent for a time, but my spouse would probably not put up with it for too long.
Also, on another note, I am wondering what you folks think about buyer’s agents who hand out “comps” that omit partcular properties (like recent sales of identical models in the same neighborhood) that don’t support their view of what a reasonable offer would be. I had this happen to me last month. I don’t know what made me more angry, the fact that this guy cherry picked the comps, or that he thought I am so stupid that I didn’t know what every house in my development had sold for in the last year. I suppose sellers agents do it in the opposite direct too. I think it is sleazy and unethical, certainly not simply zealous representation. In any event, it’s hard to imagine entering into a big transaction with somebody like that.

[Jim Brubaker]

Farls

Enjoyed your post. As a sucessfull real estate agent, your familiar with the saying 10% generate 90% of the business.

A lot of us got into the business because we were over the age of 45 and no one wanted to hire us. And admit it, the real estate test is not very hard to pass, and even easier to keep your license current. I’m a perfect example.

I was specializing in selling VA repos to investors to rent out. Cash outlay was $5000 and back in 1999 you could collect 6,000 in rent per year. That dried up after a while for very obvious reasons.

Todays real estate agent has to be a reincarnated used car salesman. I compared the Real Estate Agent to the Used Car Salesman, with the assumption that they work off of commission. If you don’t sell something before the bills are due, you go home and sweat and get mad as hell at the least little thing.

There is no incentive for a real estate agent to tell you that you can’t afford to buy a house and just like a car dealer, he’s going to show you how to get the financing. If he can’t he’s going to have to move on.

I had to quit selling because I could not look into someones eye and tell them that “its a good time to buy real estate,” when the rental fundamentals failed. My wife says that my worst short coming is that I’m just too honest. Go figure

Hope this explains what I meant. From a suggestive implication, I was suggesting that a used car dealer could only screw you for 60 payments whereas a Real Estate agent could nail you for 360–that makes a real estate agent six times more dangerous (tongue in cheek)
:>) :>) :>)

[Anonymous]

Why the personal attack? Is it good business practice for one agent to berate another?

I’ve know Bob for 2.5 years. We were in training together at our first brokerage. I have never known Bob to deliberately mislead or manipulate anyone. His integrity is beyond reproach. As a past corporate executive who has turned several failed businesses into successful ones, Bob has a tremendous ability to analyze data and report on what he sees. No fluff…just the facts.

In addition, Bob is not afraid to look at how business is traditionally done and ask himself, “Does this make sense in today’s market?” or, “How can it be done better?” If he has a failing, it is that he is only too willing to share his marketing accumen and ideas with others. Not a trait common among real estate agents.

Bob is a true RE consultant, not a salesman. He actually takes his fiduciary duties seriously by insuring that his clients’ best interests are being served. That may not make him a “top producer”, but it certainly makes him someone you can trust to do a superlative job on either side of the transaction.

I am proud to call him a fellow real estate agent and a friend.

[powayseller]

Thank you for sticking up for Bob. I’ve been e-mail corresponding with him the last few months, and I was impressed with him. That’s why I’ve quoted him so much. He has a bigger vision for how RE should be done, so he’ll be one of the survivors in this industry.

[Farls]

I’m sure Bob is a great guy and his article was well written and informative.

How will he be a survivor in the industry if he never makes any sales? As the market gets slower the agents doing the deals will survive…The others will go back to their old jobs.

[powayseller]

Bob C. does sell houses. His approach is unique, due to his business background. Instead of the used car salesman technique that has been commented on in previous posts (including the current Pigpourr), he works as an advisor, a consultant. Digging into the data to understand the story behind the numbers, putting the data into an Excel spreadsheet, and sending those reports to his potential clients is a unique approach. Not too many realtors have the inclination or knowledge to do that.

As consumers become more sophisticated, his approach may well appeal to more people.

[Farls]

Powayseller, since you are friends with Bob maybe you could do us a favor? (…and I’m 100% serious when I say this….and I’m through discussing how many properties Bob does or doesn’t sell.) Obviously Bob is very smart and very thorough. Maybe you could ask him to make an itemized list of what he does from start to finish with a client to help him or her buy or sell a home that you could post here? The point I think this would make is…if he got really specific with it…it would probably be 100 items long. Realtors (and not just Bob C.) do a ton of work that people either don’t know about or don’t understand. The time and effort involved in a typical transaction is quite extensive…. Plus, we’re not counting the time and effort put in with people who are just looky-loo’s who never buy anything. It’s so easy for people to bash Realtors as car salesmen on this site when I really don’t think that’s very accurate.

Most Realtor’s also don’t get paid just for going to the office. (Unlike many cushy salaried jobs where daily production doesn’t really matter.) They are Independent Contractors…with no salary and no benefits…and typically a higher tax liability from the “Self-Employment” tax….Also, the actual amount of money that goes to the Realtor is much different than the total commission amount, (taking into account broker split and other expenses)..By the time it gets to the agent it’s been sliced and diced like a Benihana dinner…

Plus…..I’m sure some people take Bob’s (or any other good Realtor’s) sales and market data that he gives them…Then when they’re realy to finally do the deal…They list with Help-U-Sell because it’s cheaper….or buy through the place that gives a 75% rebate….

Other tid-bits:

-Just because a Realtor may sell a lot of homes does not make him/her a car salesman. It probably means he/she is good at their job…and their past clients come back to them.

-Someone said “If I had a choice I wouldn’t use a buyer’s agent”. Well, you do have a choice. You can always pick your own agent or choose not to use one at all. If something goes wrong during or after the transaction you have no one to blame but yourself.

– If being a Realtor is such an easy and profitable job then I challenge any of you to quit your job…and become a Realtor. 80% of agents don’t make it through their first 18 months.

-Discount brokerages have been around for a long time….They’ll get their chunk of the business. But so will the large, traditional companies. Plus, if you list your home with a discount brokerage..and it sells…Did you net more money over a higher fee listing agent? The answer is…you’ll never know. Because the other listing agent may have negotiated a higher selling price..All you’ll know for sure is you paid less to sell it…

ok…sorry for the rambling…

Farls

[powayseller]

Every business loses money marketing to clients who end up not buying. My husband’s company has spent tens of thousands of dollars on marketing proposals and presentations, just to see the job go to another company. It’a part of the business.

My preferred solution would be to pay my realtor an hourly rate. Then, I pay for all the time I use up, and the realtor charges a higher hourly rate if he’s good. So a realtor is a consultant, like a lawyer. This is how I would like to do it. however, I have not seen a model like that. Being an honest person, I would not do what you suggested: pump someone for info, and then ditch that person and go low-cost.

Personally, I do NOT go to Best Buy to have the sales guy walk me through all the stereo options just to order it online or at Costco. If I consult a salesperson in a brick-mortar store, I buy from that store. I’ve told my kids often why I do this, and that we need to reimburse Best Buy (or whatever store it is) for their expenses to provide the education.

[equalizer]

Bought two homes and sold one in past 7 years. In 1999 saw many many homes and spoke with many agents. Vast majority of realtors seemed to be women with ZERO knowledge of anything remotely technical such as what is Home Depot, what is a setback, what is 1099, “I think Mello Roos is 10 years”, etc. Its seems that you have this knowledge. GREAT! Here a summary of the skills I would want in an agent that would justify their costs 🙁 PLEASE comment):
1. Have detailed knowledge of the desirability of homes features, i.e. freeway/street noise issues, traffic patterns, nearby parks, new developments, etc.
2. Know when the best time of year to purchase, anticipate multiple bids, etc.
3. Having great curuiosity of home features. Have a general knowledge of building codes, repair costs, appraisal process. Take weekend course on appraisals, etc to get this knowledge.
4. Have an understanding of basic tax concepts. Take one tax class at SDSU on 1040 if no knowledge.
5. Have taken a financial planning seminar/class. Understand basic rules of mortgage financing.

So ideally, the agent will discuss goals with buyers, discuss appropriate prices and be able to show houses that fit the criteria. When showing a house, should be able to state defects in home and approx. costs to mitigate if possible. sdrealtor, you may state that only 1 & 2 fall in the agents role, but without other knowledge how does agent answer this question: “Do you think a $1.25M 3000SF house in Carmel Valley makes financial sense?

[Author]

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