Bob Casagrand’s March 2006 Real Estate Report

[sdrealtor]

Fair enough. It’s never about bashing anyone for me but rather is about getting people to ask more questions and not take information at face value regardless of whether its positive or negative. I for one question everything I hear whether I agree or disagree with it. It’s all about balance. If I have educated a few of you to ask more questions and not take “I’m #1” “top producer” blah blah blah claims for granted, I’m satisified.

Sometime in the future when things get back to reality (whatever that might be) many of you will be buying homes. Don’t forget what you have learned, it will serve you well.

BTW I type quickly and rarely proof anything. I reely am a gud spellah!

[sdrealtor]

That’s nice, now explain to me how that applies to knowing about setbacks, easements, polyB plumbing, homeonwers insurance issues or getting an honest reliable and reasonable handyman, plumber, painter, electrician or appliance repairman out in 24 hours.

[Bugs]

Speaking as someone who’s occupation involves developing opinions about other people’s work, the way we approach it is that the workproduct stands on it’s own. None of us are any better than our last piece of work regardless of what kind of work we do. A person can be a genius for the last 30 years but if their latest deal is poorly done then it’s poorly done. Same thing for the idiots. Even an idiot can be right sometimes. A thinking person does not blindly follow – they may trust but they’ll also verify.

It’s good to identify the sources of the information and analyses from the standpoint that it helps to identify any biases that might have affected the work. However, I think the work itself should always be judged on its own strengths and merits. Whatever credibility Rich has or hasn’t developed is based solely on his work, not his qualifications or experience.

But that’s just my opinion.

[sdrealtor]

Bugs,
Well said….as always.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

About that “I’m #1” stuff, (and I’m trying to be funny here, not picking on anybody in particular) how is it that EVERY f&^kin’ realtor out there is in the “top 5% of agents” nationwide? It always puzzled me how all of their ads seem to say something like that.

Also, I went to the “DRE” website…how can you find out how many deals a guy has done? Or, was that just something that somebody in the business can figure out?

[sdrealtor]

Unfortunately the “top 5% of agents” nationwide is accurate but also meaningless. First off, you can throw out at least 50% who are part time or just plain unproductive. Now your in the top 50% if you actually show up more than 1 day a week.

The average Realtor does 3 to 5 deals a year. Throw in home prices double to triple here than most places and VOILA….Top 5% after selling 6 to 10 homes with an average price of $750,000.

The DRE website is open to the public and will give you information regarding tenure and disciplimary actions. I beleive a new law was recently passed that will require us to put our DRE License # on our business cards which will make it easier to find us in the database which is huge and makes it difficult to find agents which common surnames.

As for the how many deals question….that’s limited to someone with MLS access who knows how to get that information. I’d venture to guess that 9 out of 10 agents have no clue how to do this. My suggestion is to ask. A good agent should be willing and able to provide this information. Ask for references on this list, if they wont provide them…..uh oooh! If you contact any references make sure to ask how they know them. Aunt Betty will always have great things to say about her favorite neice.

[hs]

Bugs, I think you are a fair person.

Let’s continue our discussion without attacking on each other on this board. We need more peace in this world.

[lendingbubblecontinues]

Thanks.

[docteur]

Hi, SDRealtor. I’m confused here. Could you please clarify a few things for me? You state that “pending sales” are running at 90% of the volume in the same month in 2005. Isn’t that less than a year ago, same month? And you also state that a month ago we were at 70% of the volume. 70% of what, the volume, pending sales, closed sales or some other measure the same time frame a year ago?

Also, 70% of 10 closed sales is more than 90% of 5 closed (apples to apples). But then those 10 closed sales might be less in dollar volume than those 5 closed sales. Can you talk absolute numbers as opposed to percentages because maybe the percentages are greater month over month but absolute volume (in number of homes) might be less as also may be the absolute dollar amounts.

Additionally, pending is not “closed” and in my opinion that’s where the true picture can be seen of where the real estate market is performing at any particular point in time — are houses selling or not?

I guess I am saying there are so many variables that determine exactly what a market is doing (absolute volume, month over month percentages, dollar volume, pennding sales, closed sales, homes vs. condos, etc.) that we need to be clear on exactly what it is we are talking about.

So, what is the most accurate measure of what a market is doing? I think that’s the question we need to ask and then we need to dilegently search for the answer by analyzing the reams of data available looking for the answer that gives us the most precise picture.

Lastly, I want to say that I value every opinion and piece of information that is posted on this website, regardless of the credentials of the writer. Yes, it always helps to consider the source but sometimes the most valuable data comes from the most unexpected and surprising sources.

I for one am a believer in simply getting out and talking to realtors and potential buyers at open houses and new housing tracts. Exit studies are a great source of information for me (kind of like asking people what they think of a restaurant or a movie). I get as many differenet perspectives as I feel I need and then after due consideration of all the data, I act (or don’t act) based on my own internal analysis.

My 15 year old son (a wonderful young man and a budding brain surgeon) has a quote over his desk and it says “Believe nothing, no matter where you read it or who has said it, not even if I have said it, unless it agrees with your own reason and your own common sense.” – Budda.

I thank Rich for this site and also all of those who are willing to participate in this dialogue, that in the end, benefits all of us, by increasing our awareness of the real estate market and more importantly, of our connection with each other and how valuable it is to simply communicate and share knowledge.

[seniormoment]

SDrealtor,

Following your direction, I went to the DRE site, entered my realtor name into it, I got a line that I don’t understand, would you mind interpretating it for me? Thanks.

“RES DENIED-RIGHT TO RESTRICTED LICENSE PER H-7361 SF
“

[sdrealtor]

To be honest, I’m not sure but it looks like they have a restricted license. This could be vfor a variety of reasons. The most common reason is not meeting educational/continuing education requirements for license renewal which inst necessarily bad (just lazy). If you are concerned, you can contact the DRE for a clarification to find out what the issue is.

[docteur]

OK. Detached home sales. But again, are we talking absolute volume, dollar volume, or something else?

And is the comparision of increasing sales 90% to 70% or 90% of one month (could be any number) to 70% of the previous month (could be any number). I am still confused. Maybe just point me to the website or source of information. Thanks.

[sdrealtor]

I really hate to pile on but this one was too funny to pass up. Seems our favorite realtor analyst reported that the sales volume in 92009 dropped a disappointing 50% and the average sales price dropped about $40K. Unfortunately, he seems to be unaware that the ZIP Code was split last June into two ZIPS (92009 and 92011-where the more expensive homes are). Combine the two ZIP and the numbers are completely different (80% of last year’s volume and up $10K in average price).

Keep asking those questions!

[Calm]

nin_sis

Keep renting or find some place else to buy your first home. This is not the time or place for a first time buyer to be taking such a big risk. The people who are telling you that real estate can only go up are forgetting (or don’t know about) the serious drops that occured in the past.

I purchase a nice home in Connecticut in 1987, during an overheated market very much like San Diego last spring. I owned the home for 13 years. It was a nice starter home in one of the most desirable towns in the whole NY City metro area. After 13 years and $100,000 of repairs and improvements (furnace, roof, deck, etc.), I sold it. I broke even. That’s right $0 appreciation over 13 years.

Put your money into well-diversified mutual funds (both foreign and domestic stocks) and enjoy the renting lifestyle. If you want to play homeowner, find a friend who is a homeowner and go spend every Saturday mowing the lawn, weeding the garden, fixing the faucet drips, etc, etc. Also, ask them to show you how much money they’re spending on trips to Home Depot, the plumber, pest control services, etc., etc.

If you’re really set on owning a home, get some (if you don’t already have them) remodeling skills/experience. If you can upgrade a home with your own hands on your own time, you can increase its value well beyond your costs.

[powayseller]

Bob did account for that. He adjusted the area by taking out shadow zip code listings and adjusted for the difference in house size year over year. There’s a lot more to his analysis, most of which I don’t even understand.

To conclude this forum topic, I would like to offer the following. I won’t be posting Mr. Casagrand’s reports here anymore. The folks who have questions about his data are not seeking clarification, but are ridiculing instead. Mr. Casagrand, if you ever come upon this forum topic, I sincerely apologize for what this has turned into. You have been a professional all along to not jump in and respond in kind.

[Author]

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