Big House Bob’s July Report

[ocrenter]

July 2006: San Diego Housing Market – single family attached & detached homes: Homes sales continue to decline, sales for July were 2,396 versus 3,779 for last July. This is a drop of 37% from last year and a 19% decline from this June. July Pending sales were a dismal 2,310, which is a predictor for a continuing decline in home sales. The sales in August 2005 were 3,927 and it looks like we will come in 35% to 40% below this level. While we are on track to sell 30,000 homes this year, I believe that the continuing erosion of sales makes it likely that home sales will be below the 30,000 level. The inventory at the end of July was 22,919; this is almost a 10 month supply of homes and an increase of almost 1,000 homes in the month. Approximately 65% of this year listings have gone off market by expiring, cancelling or being withdrawn, approximately 90% of those re-list and are kept on the market. In seller market years the expired, cancelled and withdrawn listings represented about 8.5% of the listings. I think this gives us some idea on how long it is taking to sell homes.

[rankandfile]

Where can one get information about expireds, cancelleds, or withdrawns? Are these listed in online MLS databases, or is it considered special info to which only certain people have access?

[Farls]

Due to the market continuing to go into the toilet maybe he’ll have to change his name to Bob CondoTiny.

[sdsundevil]

You people on this website are really pretty funny. Compared to the last 3-5 years, any sales numbers are going to look terrible. How about comparing them to 1994? Bet they’ll look good then. The question really is what is normal. I think 30,000/year is probably normal based on what I know about San Diego Real Estate.

I’m not saying there’s not going to be a price correction of some sort, but I don’t think it’ll be as bad as most people on this website predict (and seem to want for some odd reason).

[PD]

sdsundevil, do you understand anything about the mean or historical real estate trends?
Are you a realtor?

[an]

Last time I check, wanting an affordable home to raise a family in and not be forced to have dual income to afford it is not odd. Also, 1994 is near the bottom of the last crash so anything compare to 1994 would look quite good. I don’t know what the sales data was for that year, but if you think it’s lower than now, please reveal. All I know is 23k+ homes for sale is much greater than the # of homes for sale in 1994.

[SD Realtor]

rankandfile –

The MLS contains all of the information about expireds, cancelleds and withdrawns. I am not sure how much of the MLS database is made available to third parties. For instance, the standard on line MLS providers like Realtor.com and those types receive active listings…Now someone like Zillow, I am not sure if they receive sold listings from the MLS or if they compile it from the county.

As a Realtor, (joining SDAR and paying dues) access to the MLS is one of the benefits. Since the MLS is really a private database, I do not believe the information is public domain.

Now I would assume Dataquick purchases MLS data to compile all of thier stats as well. Again, whether they purchase all of the other categories besides actives, pendings, solds is speculative. Maybe they do but they decide not to publicize it?

Sorry if the answer is to long winded…

[SD Realtor]

sdsundevil from where I sit, using the term “going to be a price correction” is incorrect. The fact is that the price corrections that are presently in effect are already of the single to double digit variety. We are already seeing the prices of solds in many neighborhoods down. So to speak of an upcoming correction is already an incorrect statement.

Also have you been watching the pricing on the new developments throughout the county?

What is true is that the corrections are of varying degrees dependent primarly by zip code and type of housing.

The frustrating thing for me as a Realtor are those that “don’t think it will be bad”. If you are not a seller, or a developer, then I wonder where you are gathering your opinion from. Perhaps other Realtors have differing thoughts but I have seen a very different buyer psychology emerging. Buyers are out there don’t get me wrong. However speculators are long gone, and easy money is now being replaced by smart money for the most part.

I guess we will all see how it pans out… Yet the data is already showing a clear depreciation that has happened, not going to happen.

[Author]

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