Bailout won’t cure all that ails housing

[sdrealtor]

LA R,
the activity spiek I’ve seen has been resales. I cant even say whether they are actually buying but they are out there en force at a time of year when they usually arent.

I agree that the make up of high wage earners was similar in 2000 though the trend seems to grow by the year as more boomers/mobile workers move here for lifestyle. I would bet that the number is dramatically higher now than in the early 90’s whne we werent so mobile.

I dont think either of us SDR’s is trying to say it will create a floor. What is does is spread the pain. It makes some sellers more optimistic, buys some more time, doesnt help others, increases affordability for some buyers, gives some buyers more confidence and doesnt impact others. Its all over the board but the end result is more slow bleeding.

[sdrealtor]

Coop,
Optimistic people will always think next year will be better. In 2009 they’ll expect things to turn around in 2010. It will never change.

Also we are almost 4 years into the correction not 2 years. Things changed in 2004 and even though fruad kept some things together after mid 2004 we were done on the way up then.

[sdrealtor]

Coop,
Optimistic people will always think next year will be better. In 2009 they’ll expect things to turn around in 2010. It will never change.

Also we are almost 4 years into the correction not 2 years. Things changed in 2004 and even though fruad kept some things together after mid 2004 we were done on the way up then.

[sdrealtor]

Coop,
Optimistic people will always think next year will be better. In 2009 they’ll expect things to turn around in 2010. It will never change.

Also we are almost 4 years into the correction not 2 years. Things changed in 2004 and even though fruad kept some things together after mid 2004 we were done on the way up then.

[sdrealtor]

Coop,
Optimistic people will always think next year will be better. In 2009 they’ll expect things to turn around in 2010. It will never change.

Also we are almost 4 years into the correction not 2 years. Things changed in 2004 and even though fruad kept some things together after mid 2004 we were done on the way up then.

[sdrealtor]

Coop,
Optimistic people will always think next year will be better. In 2009 they’ll expect things to turn around in 2010. It will never change.

Also we are almost 4 years into the correction not 2 years. Things changed in 2004 and even though fruad kept some things together after mid 2004 we were done on the way up then.

[SD Realtor]

This is a good thread… I like it when threads run good like this…

My statement was indeed with respect to resales as well and was attributed to both offers from clients of mine for homes, closings I have made for a few clients on the buyers side, showings I have had on two listings in particular, and other conversations with some other agents. The former I take at face value believe me but I will be honest and say that yes there has been an increase in activity. I am not telling anyone to buy, just telling you what I have seen.

Another item is really a fundamental lack of quality listings. Even in the desireable areas the available homes are either not of great quality for the price (aka sellers in serious denial) or those that are, seem to get alot of attention.

Also as sdr said this commentary is nothing but a snapshot of the feel of things over the past few weeks. As we all know it can change quickly and by no means represents a dynamic change in the secular nature of the cycle.

*****

I do believe that in order to get another chunk downward we still need an external catalyst such as a radical move up in interest rates or unemployment. Without either of these I think we will tread water slowly downward with deviations provided by distress that will help lower overall medians… (hopefully)

*****

LAR I feel that we are indeed going to nationalize the lending industry or create some monstrosity that will be like the FHA on steroids.

Let’s be honest here, we already have essentially done that at the secondary level. However I do believe that the government wants to reduce the exposure of the two former GSEs from 5 to like 2 trillion. How the HELL will that happen?

I guess what I am saying is that I feel that the government cannot FORCE sellers to reduce the asking price BUT the government can sure the HELL provide credit for people if the free market will not. Alternately the government can grease the free market in the form of insuring the loans in one way or another.

You kind of see what I am saying?

As sdr said, 2 years ago we were all in agreement of an oncoming or existing depreciation cycle. We all bantered around different timeframes and amounts but there were differing opinions on how involved the government would get. I think it is become very clear that the government is going to go all in with respect to this battle.

I am so very happy that they let Lehman go down the tubes. However I think the government has and will take steps to keep liquidity available for potential homebuyers. As we have all agreed, this is not a liquidity crisis, it is a SOLVENCY crisis right?

Sorry for rambling… again, this is no endorsement to buy, nor am I calling for any bottom here. Yet, I am very uneasy about how far down the road our federal government will go?

[SD Realtor]

This is a good thread… I like it when threads run good like this…

My statement was indeed with respect to resales as well and was attributed to both offers from clients of mine for homes, closings I have made for a few clients on the buyers side, showings I have had on two listings in particular, and other conversations with some other agents. The former I take at face value believe me but I will be honest and say that yes there has been an increase in activity. I am not telling anyone to buy, just telling you what I have seen.

Another item is really a fundamental lack of quality listings. Even in the desireable areas the available homes are either not of great quality for the price (aka sellers in serious denial) or those that are, seem to get alot of attention.

Also as sdr said this commentary is nothing but a snapshot of the feel of things over the past few weeks. As we all know it can change quickly and by no means represents a dynamic change in the secular nature of the cycle.

*****

I do believe that in order to get another chunk downward we still need an external catalyst such as a radical move up in interest rates or unemployment. Without either of these I think we will tread water slowly downward with deviations provided by distress that will help lower overall medians… (hopefully)

*****

LAR I feel that we are indeed going to nationalize the lending industry or create some monstrosity that will be like the FHA on steroids.

Let’s be honest here, we already have essentially done that at the secondary level. However I do believe that the government wants to reduce the exposure of the two former GSEs from 5 to like 2 trillion. How the HELL will that happen?

I guess what I am saying is that I feel that the government cannot FORCE sellers to reduce the asking price BUT the government can sure the HELL provide credit for people if the free market will not. Alternately the government can grease the free market in the form of insuring the loans in one way or another.

You kind of see what I am saying?

As sdr said, 2 years ago we were all in agreement of an oncoming or existing depreciation cycle. We all bantered around different timeframes and amounts but there were differing opinions on how involved the government would get. I think it is become very clear that the government is going to go all in with respect to this battle.

I am so very happy that they let Lehman go down the tubes. However I think the government has and will take steps to keep liquidity available for potential homebuyers. As we have all agreed, this is not a liquidity crisis, it is a SOLVENCY crisis right?

Sorry for rambling… again, this is no endorsement to buy, nor am I calling for any bottom here. Yet, I am very uneasy about how far down the road our federal government will go?

[SD Realtor]

This is a good thread… I like it when threads run good like this…

My statement was indeed with respect to resales as well and was attributed to both offers from clients of mine for homes, closings I have made for a few clients on the buyers side, showings I have had on two listings in particular, and other conversations with some other agents. The former I take at face value believe me but I will be honest and say that yes there has been an increase in activity. I am not telling anyone to buy, just telling you what I have seen.

Another item is really a fundamental lack of quality listings. Even in the desireable areas the available homes are either not of great quality for the price (aka sellers in serious denial) or those that are, seem to get alot of attention.

Also as sdr said this commentary is nothing but a snapshot of the feel of things over the past few weeks. As we all know it can change quickly and by no means represents a dynamic change in the secular nature of the cycle.

*****

I do believe that in order to get another chunk downward we still need an external catalyst such as a radical move up in interest rates or unemployment. Without either of these I think we will tread water slowly downward with deviations provided by distress that will help lower overall medians… (hopefully)

*****

LAR I feel that we are indeed going to nationalize the lending industry or create some monstrosity that will be like the FHA on steroids.

Let’s be honest here, we already have essentially done that at the secondary level. However I do believe that the government wants to reduce the exposure of the two former GSEs from 5 to like 2 trillion. How the HELL will that happen?

I guess what I am saying is that I feel that the government cannot FORCE sellers to reduce the asking price BUT the government can sure the HELL provide credit for people if the free market will not. Alternately the government can grease the free market in the form of insuring the loans in one way or another.

You kind of see what I am saying?

As sdr said, 2 years ago we were all in agreement of an oncoming or existing depreciation cycle. We all bantered around different timeframes and amounts but there were differing opinions on how involved the government would get. I think it is become very clear that the government is going to go all in with respect to this battle.

I am so very happy that they let Lehman go down the tubes. However I think the government has and will take steps to keep liquidity available for potential homebuyers. As we have all agreed, this is not a liquidity crisis, it is a SOLVENCY crisis right?

Sorry for rambling… again, this is no endorsement to buy, nor am I calling for any bottom here. Yet, I am very uneasy about how far down the road our federal government will go?

[SD Realtor]

This is a good thread… I like it when threads run good like this…

My statement was indeed with respect to resales as well and was attributed to both offers from clients of mine for homes, closings I have made for a few clients on the buyers side, showings I have had on two listings in particular, and other conversations with some other agents. The former I take at face value believe me but I will be honest and say that yes there has been an increase in activity. I am not telling anyone to buy, just telling you what I have seen.

Another item is really a fundamental lack of quality listings. Even in the desireable areas the available homes are either not of great quality for the price (aka sellers in serious denial) or those that are, seem to get alot of attention.

Also as sdr said this commentary is nothing but a snapshot of the feel of things over the past few weeks. As we all know it can change quickly and by no means represents a dynamic change in the secular nature of the cycle.

*****

I do believe that in order to get another chunk downward we still need an external catalyst such as a radical move up in interest rates or unemployment. Without either of these I think we will tread water slowly downward with deviations provided by distress that will help lower overall medians… (hopefully)

*****

LAR I feel that we are indeed going to nationalize the lending industry or create some monstrosity that will be like the FHA on steroids.

Let’s be honest here, we already have essentially done that at the secondary level. However I do believe that the government wants to reduce the exposure of the two former GSEs from 5 to like 2 trillion. How the HELL will that happen?

I guess what I am saying is that I feel that the government cannot FORCE sellers to reduce the asking price BUT the government can sure the HELL provide credit for people if the free market will not. Alternately the government can grease the free market in the form of insuring the loans in one way or another.

You kind of see what I am saying?

As sdr said, 2 years ago we were all in agreement of an oncoming or existing depreciation cycle. We all bantered around different timeframes and amounts but there were differing opinions on how involved the government would get. I think it is become very clear that the government is going to go all in with respect to this battle.

I am so very happy that they let Lehman go down the tubes. However I think the government has and will take steps to keep liquidity available for potential homebuyers. As we have all agreed, this is not a liquidity crisis, it is a SOLVENCY crisis right?

Sorry for rambling… again, this is no endorsement to buy, nor am I calling for any bottom here. Yet, I am very uneasy about how far down the road our federal government will go?

[SD Realtor]

This is a good thread… I like it when threads run good like this…

My statement was indeed with respect to resales as well and was attributed to both offers from clients of mine for homes, closings I have made for a few clients on the buyers side, showings I have had on two listings in particular, and other conversations with some other agents. The former I take at face value believe me but I will be honest and say that yes there has been an increase in activity. I am not telling anyone to buy, just telling you what I have seen.

Another item is really a fundamental lack of quality listings. Even in the desireable areas the available homes are either not of great quality for the price (aka sellers in serious denial) or those that are, seem to get alot of attention.

Also as sdr said this commentary is nothing but a snapshot of the feel of things over the past few weeks. As we all know it can change quickly and by no means represents a dynamic change in the secular nature of the cycle.

*****

I do believe that in order to get another chunk downward we still need an external catalyst such as a radical move up in interest rates or unemployment. Without either of these I think we will tread water slowly downward with deviations provided by distress that will help lower overall medians… (hopefully)

*****

LAR I feel that we are indeed going to nationalize the lending industry or create some monstrosity that will be like the FHA on steroids.

Let’s be honest here, we already have essentially done that at the secondary level. However I do believe that the government wants to reduce the exposure of the two former GSEs from 5 to like 2 trillion. How the HELL will that happen?

I guess what I am saying is that I feel that the government cannot FORCE sellers to reduce the asking price BUT the government can sure the HELL provide credit for people if the free market will not. Alternately the government can grease the free market in the form of insuring the loans in one way or another.

You kind of see what I am saying?

As sdr said, 2 years ago we were all in agreement of an oncoming or existing depreciation cycle. We all bantered around different timeframes and amounts but there were differing opinions on how involved the government would get. I think it is become very clear that the government is going to go all in with respect to this battle.

I am so very happy that they let Lehman go down the tubes. However I think the government has and will take steps to keep liquidity available for potential homebuyers. As we have all agreed, this is not a liquidity crisis, it is a SOLVENCY crisis right?

Sorry for rambling… again, this is no endorsement to buy, nor am I calling for any bottom here. Yet, I am very uneasy about how far down the road our federal government will go?

[DWCAP]

I keep wondering what will happen in 2010. That is when the GSE’s are suppose to start being net sellers instead of buyers. With no insurance, crippled banks and investment houses and burned investers, who is gonna be buying this stuff again? So then the fed doesnt sell, and yet trying to limit its exposure, starts trying to limit incoming loans. Fannie already not accepting AltA as of 2009. No AltA, No subprime, No liar loans, 20% down, full income qualification, low demand for RE bonds.
I really think the GOV is trying to find a way to fix housing in the rust belt without bubbling housing in CA/FL. I dont think they can do it, but that wont keep them from trying.

[DWCAP]

I keep wondering what will happen in 2010. That is when the GSE’s are suppose to start being net sellers instead of buyers. With no insurance, crippled banks and investment houses and burned investers, who is gonna be buying this stuff again? So then the fed doesnt sell, and yet trying to limit its exposure, starts trying to limit incoming loans. Fannie already not accepting AltA as of 2009. No AltA, No subprime, No liar loans, 20% down, full income qualification, low demand for RE bonds.
I really think the GOV is trying to find a way to fix housing in the rust belt without bubbling housing in CA/FL. I dont think they can do it, but that wont keep them from trying.

[DWCAP]

I keep wondering what will happen in 2010. That is when the GSE’s are suppose to start being net sellers instead of buyers. With no insurance, crippled banks and investment houses and burned investers, who is gonna be buying this stuff again? So then the fed doesnt sell, and yet trying to limit its exposure, starts trying to limit incoming loans. Fannie already not accepting AltA as of 2009. No AltA, No subprime, No liar loans, 20% down, full income qualification, low demand for RE bonds.
I really think the GOV is trying to find a way to fix housing in the rust belt without bubbling housing in CA/FL. I dont think they can do it, but that wont keep them from trying.

[DWCAP]

I keep wondering what will happen in 2010. That is when the GSE’s are suppose to start being net sellers instead of buyers. With no insurance, crippled banks and investment houses and burned investers, who is gonna be buying this stuff again? So then the fed doesnt sell, and yet trying to limit its exposure, starts trying to limit incoming loans. Fannie already not accepting AltA as of 2009. No AltA, No subprime, No liar loans, 20% down, full income qualification, low demand for RE bonds.
I really think the GOV is trying to find a way to fix housing in the rust belt without bubbling housing in CA/FL. I dont think they can do it, but that wont keep them from trying.

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