Bailout won’t cure all that ails housing

[sdrealtor]

What else can the gubmint do? I think we just saw more this morning.

As for the high earners in San Diego, they dont typically work for large local employers. SD has never been home to major corps like other large metros are. This makes it a more piecemeal process for high wage earners to succumb.

[LA_Renter]

I have a question for the SDrealtors. The spike you are referring to, are those new homes?? I found this quote in a John Mauldin weekly letter about calling a bottom in the housing market.

“There is a problem though, and that is the recently enacted housing bill eliminated seller-funded down payments, and this was 17% of new home sales. Watch for a rise in the number of new homes sold in September, as the new law does not take effect until October. Home builders will be telling people to buy now before this ability to help with the down payment goes away. But cheerleaders on TV will be telling us the market has turned. They won’t be saying that in November.”

So I’m a little skeptical on this spike in sales. You could be pulling future demand into the month of Sept and if that is true the balance of the year is going to be dismal.

Methinks it is still premature to make a conclusion on high end So Cal just yet. If you haven’t noticed we are in THE MIDDLE of a very severe financial crisis. We still do not know the true impact on Main Street. The old timers that I work with in my industry are telling me they have never seen anything like what we are going through right now. Roubini who basically has been elevated from crazy permabear to Savant is predicting a 12 to 18 month recession if we are lucky.

“As for the high earners in San Diego, they dont typically work for large local employers. SD has never been home to major corps like other large metros are. This makes it a more piecemeal process for high wage earners to succumb.’

sdrealtor, the same was true in 2000.

Regarding the future bailouts directly in the housing market here is a video of Roger Altman former Deputy Treasury Secretary on CNBC last night

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=856096998&play=1

Basically he is saying that trying to put a floor in the housing market will be highly difficult and highly unlikely due to the financial magnitude being beyond what the system could do.

[LA_Renter]

I have a question for the SDrealtors. The spike you are referring to, are those new homes?? I found this quote in a John Mauldin weekly letter about calling a bottom in the housing market.

“There is a problem though, and that is the recently enacted housing bill eliminated seller-funded down payments, and this was 17% of new home sales. Watch for a rise in the number of new homes sold in September, as the new law does not take effect until October. Home builders will be telling people to buy now before this ability to help with the down payment goes away. But cheerleaders on TV will be telling us the market has turned. They won’t be saying that in November.”

So I’m a little skeptical on this spike in sales. You could be pulling future demand into the month of Sept and if that is true the balance of the year is going to be dismal.

Methinks it is still premature to make a conclusion on high end So Cal just yet. If you haven’t noticed we are in THE MIDDLE of a very severe financial crisis. We still do not know the true impact on Main Street. The old timers that I work with in my industry are telling me they have never seen anything like what we are going through right now. Roubini who basically has been elevated from crazy permabear to Savant is predicting a 12 to 18 month recession if we are lucky.

“As for the high earners in San Diego, they dont typically work for large local employers. SD has never been home to major corps like other large metros are. This makes it a more piecemeal process for high wage earners to succumb.’

sdrealtor, the same was true in 2000.

Regarding the future bailouts directly in the housing market here is a video of Roger Altman former Deputy Treasury Secretary on CNBC last night

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=856096998&play=1

Basically he is saying that trying to put a floor in the housing market will be highly difficult and highly unlikely due to the financial magnitude being beyond what the system could do.

[LA_Renter]

I have a question for the SDrealtors. The spike you are referring to, are those new homes?? I found this quote in a John Mauldin weekly letter about calling a bottom in the housing market.

“There is a problem though, and that is the recently enacted housing bill eliminated seller-funded down payments, and this was 17% of new home sales. Watch for a rise in the number of new homes sold in September, as the new law does not take effect until October. Home builders will be telling people to buy now before this ability to help with the down payment goes away. But cheerleaders on TV will be telling us the market has turned. They won’t be saying that in November.”

So I’m a little skeptical on this spike in sales. You could be pulling future demand into the month of Sept and if that is true the balance of the year is going to be dismal.

Methinks it is still premature to make a conclusion on high end So Cal just yet. If you haven’t noticed we are in THE MIDDLE of a very severe financial crisis. We still do not know the true impact on Main Street. The old timers that I work with in my industry are telling me they have never seen anything like what we are going through right now. Roubini who basically has been elevated from crazy permabear to Savant is predicting a 12 to 18 month recession if we are lucky.

“As for the high earners in San Diego, they dont typically work for large local employers. SD has never been home to major corps like other large metros are. This makes it a more piecemeal process for high wage earners to succumb.’

sdrealtor, the same was true in 2000.

Regarding the future bailouts directly in the housing market here is a video of Roger Altman former Deputy Treasury Secretary on CNBC last night

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=856096998&play=1

Basically he is saying that trying to put a floor in the housing market will be highly difficult and highly unlikely due to the financial magnitude being beyond what the system could do.

[LA_Renter]

I have a question for the SDrealtors. The spike you are referring to, are those new homes?? I found this quote in a John Mauldin weekly letter about calling a bottom in the housing market.

“There is a problem though, and that is the recently enacted housing bill eliminated seller-funded down payments, and this was 17% of new home sales. Watch for a rise in the number of new homes sold in September, as the new law does not take effect until October. Home builders will be telling people to buy now before this ability to help with the down payment goes away. But cheerleaders on TV will be telling us the market has turned. They won’t be saying that in November.”

So I’m a little skeptical on this spike in sales. You could be pulling future demand into the month of Sept and if that is true the balance of the year is going to be dismal.

Methinks it is still premature to make a conclusion on high end So Cal just yet. If you haven’t noticed we are in THE MIDDLE of a very severe financial crisis. We still do not know the true impact on Main Street. The old timers that I work with in my industry are telling me they have never seen anything like what we are going through right now. Roubini who basically has been elevated from crazy permabear to Savant is predicting a 12 to 18 month recession if we are lucky.

“As for the high earners in San Diego, they dont typically work for large local employers. SD has never been home to major corps like other large metros are. This makes it a more piecemeal process for high wage earners to succumb.’

sdrealtor, the same was true in 2000.

Regarding the future bailouts directly in the housing market here is a video of Roger Altman former Deputy Treasury Secretary on CNBC last night

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=856096998&play=1

Basically he is saying that trying to put a floor in the housing market will be highly difficult and highly unlikely due to the financial magnitude being beyond what the system could do.

[LA_Renter]

I have a question for the SDrealtors. The spike you are referring to, are those new homes?? I found this quote in a John Mauldin weekly letter about calling a bottom in the housing market.

“There is a problem though, and that is the recently enacted housing bill eliminated seller-funded down payments, and this was 17% of new home sales. Watch for a rise in the number of new homes sold in September, as the new law does not take effect until October. Home builders will be telling people to buy now before this ability to help with the down payment goes away. But cheerleaders on TV will be telling us the market has turned. They won’t be saying that in November.”

So I’m a little skeptical on this spike in sales. You could be pulling future demand into the month of Sept and if that is true the balance of the year is going to be dismal.

Methinks it is still premature to make a conclusion on high end So Cal just yet. If you haven’t noticed we are in THE MIDDLE of a very severe financial crisis. We still do not know the true impact on Main Street. The old timers that I work with in my industry are telling me they have never seen anything like what we are going through right now. Roubini who basically has been elevated from crazy permabear to Savant is predicting a 12 to 18 month recession if we are lucky.

“As for the high earners in San Diego, they dont typically work for large local employers. SD has never been home to major corps like other large metros are. This makes it a more piecemeal process for high wage earners to succumb.’

sdrealtor, the same was true in 2000.

Regarding the future bailouts directly in the housing market here is a video of Roger Altman former Deputy Treasury Secretary on CNBC last night

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=856096998&play=1

Basically he is saying that trying to put a floor in the housing market will be highly difficult and highly unlikely due to the financial magnitude being beyond what the system could do.

[cr]

A lot of the commentary out there suggests at least two things that I see dragging prices down even further regardless of rates, inventory levels, or how how strict lending standards are:

– job losses: likely to shoot up further
– down payments: up to 20% now required

If someone is in a recession-proof job and sitting on $200k to drop into a house then they’ll be okay, but that brings up another issue: buyer sentiment.

I think most people believe all the experts who claim prices will turn-around in 2009. Once that idea fades, particularly in the post-bubble areas they’ll likely wait it out longer.

We’re 2 years into the correction of a 10-year run-up that when it should have ended in 2002 went absolutely insane the next 4 years.

The 30% drop so far may be half way, but expect declines to slow and then stay flat for some time.

[cr]

A lot of the commentary out there suggests at least two things that I see dragging prices down even further regardless of rates, inventory levels, or how how strict lending standards are:

– job losses: likely to shoot up further
– down payments: up to 20% now required

If someone is in a recession-proof job and sitting on $200k to drop into a house then they’ll be okay, but that brings up another issue: buyer sentiment.

I think most people believe all the experts who claim prices will turn-around in 2009. Once that idea fades, particularly in the post-bubble areas they’ll likely wait it out longer.

We’re 2 years into the correction of a 10-year run-up that when it should have ended in 2002 went absolutely insane the next 4 years.

The 30% drop so far may be half way, but expect declines to slow and then stay flat for some time.

[cr]

A lot of the commentary out there suggests at least two things that I see dragging prices down even further regardless of rates, inventory levels, or how how strict lending standards are:

– job losses: likely to shoot up further
– down payments: up to 20% now required

If someone is in a recession-proof job and sitting on $200k to drop into a house then they’ll be okay, but that brings up another issue: buyer sentiment.

I think most people believe all the experts who claim prices will turn-around in 2009. Once that idea fades, particularly in the post-bubble areas they’ll likely wait it out longer.

We’re 2 years into the correction of a 10-year run-up that when it should have ended in 2002 went absolutely insane the next 4 years.

The 30% drop so far may be half way, but expect declines to slow and then stay flat for some time.

[cr]

A lot of the commentary out there suggests at least two things that I see dragging prices down even further regardless of rates, inventory levels, or how how strict lending standards are:

– job losses: likely to shoot up further
– down payments: up to 20% now required

If someone is in a recession-proof job and sitting on $200k to drop into a house then they’ll be okay, but that brings up another issue: buyer sentiment.

I think most people believe all the experts who claim prices will turn-around in 2009. Once that idea fades, particularly in the post-bubble areas they’ll likely wait it out longer.

We’re 2 years into the correction of a 10-year run-up that when it should have ended in 2002 went absolutely insane the next 4 years.

The 30% drop so far may be half way, but expect declines to slow and then stay flat for some time.

[cr]

A lot of the commentary out there suggests at least two things that I see dragging prices down even further regardless of rates, inventory levels, or how how strict lending standards are:

– job losses: likely to shoot up further
– down payments: up to 20% now required

If someone is in a recession-proof job and sitting on $200k to drop into a house then they’ll be okay, but that brings up another issue: buyer sentiment.

I think most people believe all the experts who claim prices will turn-around in 2009. Once that idea fades, particularly in the post-bubble areas they’ll likely wait it out longer.

We’re 2 years into the correction of a 10-year run-up that when it should have ended in 2002 went absolutely insane the next 4 years.

The 30% drop so far may be half way, but expect declines to slow and then stay flat for some time.

[sdrealtor]

LA R,
the activity spiek I’ve seen has been resales. I cant even say whether they are actually buying but they are out there en force at a time of year when they usually arent.

I agree that the make up of high wage earners was similar in 2000 though the trend seems to grow by the year as more boomers/mobile workers move here for lifestyle. I would bet that the number is dramatically higher now than in the early 90’s whne we werent so mobile.

I dont think either of us SDR’s is trying to say it will create a floor. What is does is spread the pain. It makes some sellers more optimistic, buys some more time, doesnt help others, increases affordability for some buyers, gives some buyers more confidence and doesnt impact others. Its all over the board but the end result is more slow bleeding.

[sdrealtor]

LA R,
the activity spiek I’ve seen has been resales. I cant even say whether they are actually buying but they are out there en force at a time of year when they usually arent.

I agree that the make up of high wage earners was similar in 2000 though the trend seems to grow by the year as more boomers/mobile workers move here for lifestyle. I would bet that the number is dramatically higher now than in the early 90’s whne we werent so mobile.

I dont think either of us SDR’s is trying to say it will create a floor. What is does is spread the pain. It makes some sellers more optimistic, buys some more time, doesnt help others, increases affordability for some buyers, gives some buyers more confidence and doesnt impact others. Its all over the board but the end result is more slow bleeding.

[sdrealtor]

LA R,
the activity spiek I’ve seen has been resales. I cant even say whether they are actually buying but they are out there en force at a time of year when they usually arent.

I agree that the make up of high wage earners was similar in 2000 though the trend seems to grow by the year as more boomers/mobile workers move here for lifestyle. I would bet that the number is dramatically higher now than in the early 90’s whne we werent so mobile.

I dont think either of us SDR’s is trying to say it will create a floor. What is does is spread the pain. It makes some sellers more optimistic, buys some more time, doesnt help others, increases affordability for some buyers, gives some buyers more confidence and doesnt impact others. Its all over the board but the end result is more slow bleeding.

[sdrealtor]

LA R,
the activity spiek I’ve seen has been resales. I cant even say whether they are actually buying but they are out there en force at a time of year when they usually arent.

I agree that the make up of high wage earners was similar in 2000 though the trend seems to grow by the year as more boomers/mobile workers move here for lifestyle. I would bet that the number is dramatically higher now than in the early 90’s whne we werent so mobile.

I dont think either of us SDR’s is trying to say it will create a floor. What is does is spread the pain. It makes some sellers more optimistic, buys some more time, doesnt help others, increases affordability for some buyers, gives some buyers more confidence and doesnt impact others. Its all over the board but the end result is more slow bleeding.

[Author]

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