As the NAR is a trade association, comprised of Realtors, whose core purpose (as stated on their website) “is to help its members become more profitable and successful” they are to be COMPLETELY dis-regarded. Also, check into David “Lie”-reah’s credentials and you’ll see that he used to be the Chief Economist of the Mortage Bankers Association of America (MBA), perhaps the biggest band of crooks this country has seen in decades.
From the NAR’s website:
“NAR’s Mission and Vision
Mission
The core purpose of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® is to help its members become more profitable and successful.”
Not only should you not trust their forecasts, don’t trust their data. According to Florida broker Mike Morgan (through Mish), there’s a strong belief they cherry pick data.
Here’s the money quote:
NAR extrapolates. They survey 1-2% of the market and then multiply and add a “fudge” factor. He said he believes they intentionally avoid distressed markets like Miami, Naples, Vegas, Phoenix, DC, etc. There (sic) goal, as our Trade Association, is to promote the industry, not to report a comprehensive picture. If they avoid the hard hit markets, their numbers will consistently paint a much better picture than what reality is.
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