Article: Obama Says U.S. Long-Term Debt Load ‘Unsustainable’

[Allan from Fallbrook]

[quote=Russell][quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=Arraya]
http://www.businessinsider.com/roubini-china-will-have-the-worlds-reserve-currency-2009-5

Nouriel Roubini has an interesting op-ed in the NYT today that’s actually got very little to do with the financial crisis or the banks or the prospects for a recovery some time in the next year.

It’s about the process that’s already in place for China’s Renmimbi to supplant the US dollar.

First, the conditions definitely seem in place for the Dollar’s status to erode. We’ve got a stunning level of debt, and it’s clear that the rest of the world is growing uneasy about financing it all. We’ve also got deep political problems, notably a Congress that’s been thoroughly captured by special interests, and thus lacks the political will to take real action on anything
[/quote]

Arraya: One of my Army buddies has remained in the Army and is now with NATO in Brussels. He says most of the Pentagon’s long-term forecasting has nothing to do with Low Intensity Conflicts (like Iraq and Afghanistan), but is focused on the Chinese threat, militarily and geo-politically. The reason the US formed the African Command is to ensure US control over African resources, specifically oil and to keep an eye on Chinese “incursions” into Africa and the Near East.

He also mentioned that the US is very interested in China’s internal issues, specifically things like AIDS and SARS, along with student discontent arising from unemployment and the fact that there is a 200,000 man strong contingent of disaffected former People’s Army officers who are unhappy about lack of benefits, pensions, etc.[/quote]

What you are relaying all has a “ring” to it. One can’t help but think of the possible ramifications alluded to here, when reserve currency and debt and trade policies are at at a point of potential disruption. Allan, (I’ll be nice I promise), is it too naive to think China would go directly at the middle east, specifically Iran…what happened to the tensions over Taiwan?

Now on the other hand, isn’t it possible that NWO and collusion of various countries supplants this old school geo-politcal jockeying that you describe.What will it be? Can we have both?[/quote]

Rus: Taiwan’s president is pro-China and we’re already seeing something of a normalization of relations between the two countries.

China is moving rapidly to acquire a “blue water” navy and that means potential conflict somewhere down the road with the US. The Chinese already have a strong presence in Africa and are now moving into South America as well (they’ve just passed the US as Brazil’s leading trading partner).

It’s all about resources: Who has them and what it will take to acquire them. This is the only reason we’re so heavily involved and invested in the Middle East and Central Asia.

It will be interesting to see if India develops as a counterweight to the Chinese.

[Arraya]

Allan-That is very interesting and does not surprise me. China is our main competitor for oil and has been jockeying for position in Africa for about a decade now. It seems like they have formed, at least, a temporary alliance with Russia and Nato has the ME in lock down except for Iran.

In regards to the reserve currency issue. I suspect that it has already been decided that the dollar is going to be replaced and Obama and others are telegraphing this now. Kind of letting the public digest it. China sure has been warning for over a year now. With the amount of time Goldman executives and Chinese speaking, Asian economics expert Giethner have spent over there that they must have brokered and/or aware of this, as well as financially positioning themselves if it is going to happen.

[Arraya]

Allan-That is very interesting and does not surprise me. China is our main competitor for oil and has been jockeying for position in Africa for about a decade now. It seems like they have formed, at least, a temporary alliance with Russia and Nato has the ME in lock down except for Iran.

In regards to the reserve currency issue. I suspect that it has already been decided that the dollar is going to be replaced and Obama and others are telegraphing this now. Kind of letting the public digest it. China sure has been warning for over a year now. With the amount of time Goldman executives and Chinese speaking, Asian economics expert Giethner have spent over there that they must have brokered and/or aware of this, as well as financially positioning themselves if it is going to happen.

[Arraya]

Allan-That is very interesting and does not surprise me. China is our main competitor for oil and has been jockeying for position in Africa for about a decade now. It seems like they have formed, at least, a temporary alliance with Russia and Nato has the ME in lock down except for Iran.

In regards to the reserve currency issue. I suspect that it has already been decided that the dollar is going to be replaced and Obama and others are telegraphing this now. Kind of letting the public digest it. China sure has been warning for over a year now. With the amount of time Goldman executives and Chinese speaking, Asian economics expert Giethner have spent over there that they must have brokered and/or aware of this, as well as financially positioning themselves if it is going to happen.

[Arraya]

Allan-That is very interesting and does not surprise me. China is our main competitor for oil and has been jockeying for position in Africa for about a decade now. It seems like they have formed, at least, a temporary alliance with Russia and Nato has the ME in lock down except for Iran.

In regards to the reserve currency issue. I suspect that it has already been decided that the dollar is going to be replaced and Obama and others are telegraphing this now. Kind of letting the public digest it. China sure has been warning for over a year now. With the amount of time Goldman executives and Chinese speaking, Asian economics expert Giethner have spent over there that they must have brokered and/or aware of this, as well as financially positioning themselves if it is going to happen.

[Arraya]

Allan-That is very interesting and does not surprise me. China is our main competitor for oil and has been jockeying for position in Africa for about a decade now. It seems like they have formed, at least, a temporary alliance with Russia and Nato has the ME in lock down except for Iran.

In regards to the reserve currency issue. I suspect that it has already been decided that the dollar is going to be replaced and Obama and others are telegraphing this now. Kind of letting the public digest it. China sure has been warning for over a year now. With the amount of time Goldman executives and Chinese speaking, Asian economics expert Giethner have spent over there that they must have brokered and/or aware of this, as well as financially positioning themselves if it is going to happen.

[Eugene]

Navy is useless without strong aviation support. Chinese air force is relatively outdated compared to Americans. They have lots of aircraft (mostly Russian-bought), but they lack stealth capabilities.

Also, aviation is only good if you can get it to where the action is. Fighter jets can’t go much further than 1000 miles from the base. Which means (1) military bases on foreign soil and/or (2) aircraft carriers. US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (more than all other countries in the world combined), they carry around 300 F/A-18’s which will be gradually replaced with F-35’s. Chinese have no aircraft carriers, though they are expected to launch two or three in the next ten years. Without aircraft carriers, their sphere of influence is limited to 1000 miles from their soil and any bases they manage to establish. They can’t even do much in Iran because it’s too far. They’d have to work with Russians (fighters launched from Russian bases in Caucasus could, in principle, bomb Tehran and make it back.)

[Eugene]

Navy is useless without strong aviation support. Chinese air force is relatively outdated compared to Americans. They have lots of aircraft (mostly Russian-bought), but they lack stealth capabilities.

Also, aviation is only good if you can get it to where the action is. Fighter jets can’t go much further than 1000 miles from the base. Which means (1) military bases on foreign soil and/or (2) aircraft carriers. US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (more than all other countries in the world combined), they carry around 300 F/A-18’s which will be gradually replaced with F-35’s. Chinese have no aircraft carriers, though they are expected to launch two or three in the next ten years. Without aircraft carriers, their sphere of influence is limited to 1000 miles from their soil and any bases they manage to establish. They can’t even do much in Iran because it’s too far. They’d have to work with Russians (fighters launched from Russian bases in Caucasus could, in principle, bomb Tehran and make it back.)

[Eugene]

Navy is useless without strong aviation support. Chinese air force is relatively outdated compared to Americans. They have lots of aircraft (mostly Russian-bought), but they lack stealth capabilities.

Also, aviation is only good if you can get it to where the action is. Fighter jets can’t go much further than 1000 miles from the base. Which means (1) military bases on foreign soil and/or (2) aircraft carriers. US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (more than all other countries in the world combined), they carry around 300 F/A-18’s which will be gradually replaced with F-35’s. Chinese have no aircraft carriers, though they are expected to launch two or three in the next ten years. Without aircraft carriers, their sphere of influence is limited to 1000 miles from their soil and any bases they manage to establish. They can’t even do much in Iran because it’s too far. They’d have to work with Russians (fighters launched from Russian bases in Caucasus could, in principle, bomb Tehran and make it back.)

[Eugene]

Navy is useless without strong aviation support. Chinese air force is relatively outdated compared to Americans. They have lots of aircraft (mostly Russian-bought), but they lack stealth capabilities.

Also, aviation is only good if you can get it to where the action is. Fighter jets can’t go much further than 1000 miles from the base. Which means (1) military bases on foreign soil and/or (2) aircraft carriers. US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (more than all other countries in the world combined), they carry around 300 F/A-18’s which will be gradually replaced with F-35’s. Chinese have no aircraft carriers, though they are expected to launch two or three in the next ten years. Without aircraft carriers, their sphere of influence is limited to 1000 miles from their soil and any bases they manage to establish. They can’t even do much in Iran because it’s too far. They’d have to work with Russians (fighters launched from Russian bases in Caucasus could, in principle, bomb Tehran and make it back.)

[Eugene]

Navy is useless without strong aviation support. Chinese air force is relatively outdated compared to Americans. They have lots of aircraft (mostly Russian-bought), but they lack stealth capabilities.

Also, aviation is only good if you can get it to where the action is. Fighter jets can’t go much further than 1000 miles from the base. Which means (1) military bases on foreign soil and/or (2) aircraft carriers. US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (more than all other countries in the world combined), they carry around 300 F/A-18’s which will be gradually replaced with F-35’s. Chinese have no aircraft carriers, though they are expected to launch two or three in the next ten years. Without aircraft carriers, their sphere of influence is limited to 1000 miles from their soil and any bases they manage to establish. They can’t even do much in Iran because it’s too far. They’d have to work with Russians (fighters launched from Russian bases in Caucasus could, in principle, bomb Tehran and make it back.)

[NotCranky]

Resources O.K., I get the central asian situation a little better now…

This is the last sentence from the abstract pasted below: “and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.”

Central Asia: A major emerging energy player in the 21st century

James P. Dorian

International Energy Economist, 6201 Benalder Drive, Bethesda, Maryland 20816, USA

Abstract
Energy is the most abundant and valuable natural resource of Central Asia and northwest China1 and includes oil, gas, coal, electricity, and renewables. Kazakhstan has large reserves of oil and coal. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have significant reserves of gas. Kyrgyzstan produces significant amounts of hydroelectric power. Xinjiang, China has significant coal resources and an uncertain, although generally promising, potential for oil in the Tarim basin. These energy reserves form the basis for future economic growth and development in the region, and energy exports are beginning to generate important foreign exchange revenues. Although Central Asia enjoys vast energy development potential, there are obstacles to exploiting these resources, including limited infrastructure for transporting energy—notably oil and gas pipelines and electric transmission lines—in the region, political turmoil, payment difficulties, and inadequate energy policies. Despite these challenges, however, with appropriate government planning Central Asia is poised to become a significant world supplier of energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors, and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.

[NotCranky]

Resources O.K., I get the central asian situation a little better now…

This is the last sentence from the abstract pasted below: “and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.”

Central Asia: A major emerging energy player in the 21st century

James P. Dorian

International Energy Economist, 6201 Benalder Drive, Bethesda, Maryland 20816, USA

Abstract
Energy is the most abundant and valuable natural resource of Central Asia and northwest China1 and includes oil, gas, coal, electricity, and renewables. Kazakhstan has large reserves of oil and coal. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have significant reserves of gas. Kyrgyzstan produces significant amounts of hydroelectric power. Xinjiang, China has significant coal resources and an uncertain, although generally promising, potential for oil in the Tarim basin. These energy reserves form the basis for future economic growth and development in the region, and energy exports are beginning to generate important foreign exchange revenues. Although Central Asia enjoys vast energy development potential, there are obstacles to exploiting these resources, including limited infrastructure for transporting energy—notably oil and gas pipelines and electric transmission lines—in the region, political turmoil, payment difficulties, and inadequate energy policies. Despite these challenges, however, with appropriate government planning Central Asia is poised to become a significant world supplier of energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors, and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.

[NotCranky]

Resources O.K., I get the central asian situation a little better now…

This is the last sentence from the abstract pasted below: “and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.”

Central Asia: A major emerging energy player in the 21st century

James P. Dorian

International Energy Economist, 6201 Benalder Drive, Bethesda, Maryland 20816, USA

Abstract
Energy is the most abundant and valuable natural resource of Central Asia and northwest China1 and includes oil, gas, coal, electricity, and renewables. Kazakhstan has large reserves of oil and coal. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have significant reserves of gas. Kyrgyzstan produces significant amounts of hydroelectric power. Xinjiang, China has significant coal resources and an uncertain, although generally promising, potential for oil in the Tarim basin. These energy reserves form the basis for future economic growth and development in the region, and energy exports are beginning to generate important foreign exchange revenues. Although Central Asia enjoys vast energy development potential, there are obstacles to exploiting these resources, including limited infrastructure for transporting energy—notably oil and gas pipelines and electric transmission lines—in the region, political turmoil, payment difficulties, and inadequate energy policies. Despite these challenges, however, with appropriate government planning Central Asia is poised to become a significant world supplier of energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors, and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.

[NotCranky]

Resources O.K., I get the central asian situation a little better now…

This is the last sentence from the abstract pasted below: “and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.”

Central Asia: A major emerging energy player in the 21st century

James P. Dorian

International Energy Economist, 6201 Benalder Drive, Bethesda, Maryland 20816, USA

Abstract
Energy is the most abundant and valuable natural resource of Central Asia and northwest China1 and includes oil, gas, coal, electricity, and renewables. Kazakhstan has large reserves of oil and coal. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have significant reserves of gas. Kyrgyzstan produces significant amounts of hydroelectric power. Xinjiang, China has significant coal resources and an uncertain, although generally promising, potential for oil in the Tarim basin. These energy reserves form the basis for future economic growth and development in the region, and energy exports are beginning to generate important foreign exchange revenues. Although Central Asia enjoys vast energy development potential, there are obstacles to exploiting these resources, including limited infrastructure for transporting energy—notably oil and gas pipelines and electric transmission lines—in the region, political turmoil, payment difficulties, and inadequate energy policies. Despite these challenges, however, with appropriate government planning Central Asia is poised to become a significant world supplier of energy, especially in the oil and gas sectors, and the region is likely to diminish OPEC’s influence of the global oil market over the long term.

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