Are you more risk averse now?

[desmond]

“Let’s take the money and run”

We took the money and “walked down the street and rented”

“but most of our equity is phantom equity that came to us with the blowing up of the bubble, and which will go away as it deflates”

We also took that “phantom equity” and invested it and now it is “Real”?

[Duck]

Am I a stock bull? Yes for the right stocks. I won’t sell my long term holds for another 20 years unless their fundamentals change. For my trading account I added new money in May and am up 13% after Friday on those picks. Just one loser (CAT). Still scratching my head how SLB loses 11% in one day after great earnings, but I’ll chalk it up to the sell on the news crowd. I never trade during earnings season unless it’s a stock that gets crushed for no reason and their long term propsects are still intact. SLB just got ahead of itself. I own CAT and am getting a little disapointed in them. Their comments really triggered the sell off and they did that exact same thing last qtr. I may buy S&P puts prior to their January announcments because their CEO seems intent on issuing negative economic statements in order to cover his ass over poor results.

Overall, I think the Fed will continue to cut rates, and I was actually happy about the sell off for that reason. If we go to new highs prior to Oct. 31 Bernanke will have no ammo. The market is now pricing in a 1/2 point cut.

I beleive the weak dollar will help multinationals, and I think there are some undervalued tech plays out there (EMC). India and China still have an enormous amount of infrastucture to build out and they have an up and coming class of consumers that had no access to even telephones just 5 years ago. Over the next 10-20 years there will be tens of millions of new consumers for cell phones, computers, TV’s etc. and the dominant tech suppliers should thrive.

For now I’m avoiding banks and homebuilders like the plague although there will be tremendous buys at some point in 2008 once we see who survives. I own small positions of puts on both groups.

Still have quite a bit in cash earning 5%.

So I guess I’m a bull.

[Duck]

Am I a stock bull? Yes for the right stocks. I won’t sell my long term holds for another 20 years unless their fundamentals change. For my trading account I added new money in May and am up 13% after Friday on those picks. Just one loser (CAT). Still scratching my head how SLB loses 11% in one day after great earnings, but I’ll chalk it up to the sell on the news crowd. I never trade during earnings season unless it’s a stock that gets crushed for no reason and their long term propsects are still intact. SLB just got ahead of itself. I own CAT and am getting a little disapointed in them. Their comments really triggered the sell off and they did that exact same thing last qtr. I may buy S&P puts prior to their January announcments because their CEO seems intent on issuing negative economic statements in order to cover his ass over poor results.

Overall, I think the Fed will continue to cut rates, and I was actually happy about the sell off for that reason. If we go to new highs prior to Oct. 31 Bernanke will have no ammo. The market is now pricing in a 1/2 point cut.

I beleive the weak dollar will help multinationals, and I think there are some undervalued tech plays out there (EMC). India and China still have an enormous amount of infrastucture to build out and they have an up and coming class of consumers that had no access to even telephones just 5 years ago. Over the next 10-20 years there will be tens of millions of new consumers for cell phones, computers, TV’s etc. and the dominant tech suppliers should thrive.

For now I’m avoiding banks and homebuilders like the plague although there will be tremendous buys at some point in 2008 once we see who survives. I own small positions of puts on both groups.

Still have quite a bit in cash earning 5%.

So I guess I’m a bull.

[Bubblesitter]

I’m still bullish on a couple sectors, but nearly completely bearish on everything. It seems very likely we are already in a recession.

I’m holding on to diversified oil and oil services companies. I’m still a believer that emerging markets (China, others) will continue to drive demand even during this recession. I guess the $64K question is whether the world catches a cold when the US sneezes.

I agree that some US export-centric manufacturers, Boeing, CAT, John Deere etc are in a good position with the weakening dollar. Strong food commodity prices may especially help Deere….more combines harvesting expensive wheat.

Some tech companies should do well, e.g. especially ones with good sales outside of US, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, etc. I’m scoping out small companies in alternative energy that may have defensible intellectual property that may make a breakthrough e.g. higher efficiency solar, biodiesel,etc. Famed venture capitalist Vinod Khoshla is now focused on these types of investments. Public ones are tough to find.

Still holding onto Gold via an GLD ETF, it is a larger % of my portfolio due to the run-up last year. I’m planning on using part of it for a down-payment for the next house…..in a couple years.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

I’m still bullish on a couple sectors, but nearly completely bearish on everything. It seems very likely we are already in a recession.

I’m holding on to diversified oil and oil services companies. I’m still a believer that emerging markets (China, others) will continue to drive demand even during this recession. I guess the $64K question is whether the world catches a cold when the US sneezes.

I agree that some US export-centric manufacturers, Boeing, CAT, John Deere etc are in a good position with the weakening dollar. Strong food commodity prices may especially help Deere….more combines harvesting expensive wheat.

Some tech companies should do well, e.g. especially ones with good sales outside of US, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, etc. I’m scoping out small companies in alternative energy that may have defensible intellectual property that may make a breakthrough e.g. higher efficiency solar, biodiesel,etc. Famed venture capitalist Vinod Khoshla is now focused on these types of investments. Public ones are tough to find.

Still holding onto Gold via an GLD ETF, it is a larger % of my portfolio due to the run-up last year. I’m planning on using part of it for a down-payment for the next house…..in a couple years.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

I’m still bullish on a couple sectors, but nearly completely bearish on everything. It seems very likely we are already in a recession.

I’m holding on to diversified oil and oil services companies. I’m still a believer that emerging markets (China, others) will continue to drive demand even during this recession. I guess the $64K question is whether the world catches a cold when the US sneezes.

I agree that some US export-centric manufacturers, Boeing, CAT, John Deere etc are in a good position with the weakening dollar. Strong food commodity prices may especially help Deere….more combines harvesting expensive wheat.

Some tech companies should do well, e.g. especially ones with good sales outside of US, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, etc. I’m scoping out small companies in alternative energy that may have defensible intellectual property that may make a breakthrough e.g. higher efficiency solar, biodiesel,etc. Famed venture capitalist Vinod Khoshla is now focused on these types of investments. Public ones are tough to find.

Still holding onto Gold via an GLD ETF, it is a larger % of my portfolio due to the run-up last year. I’m planning on using part of it for a down-payment for the next house…..in a couple years.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

I’m still bullish on a couple sectors, but nearly completely bearish on everything. It seems very likely we are already in a recession.

I’m holding on to diversified oil and oil services companies. I’m still a believer that emerging markets (China, others) will continue to drive demand even during this recession. I guess the $64K question is whether the world catches a cold when the US sneezes.

I agree that some US export-centric manufacturers, Boeing, CAT, John Deere etc are in a good position with the weakening dollar. Strong food commodity prices may especially help Deere….more combines harvesting expensive wheat.

Some tech companies should do well, e.g. especially ones with good sales outside of US, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, etc. I’m scoping out small companies in alternative energy that may have defensible intellectual property that may make a breakthrough e.g. higher efficiency solar, biodiesel,etc. Famed venture capitalist Vinod Khoshla is now focused on these types of investments. Public ones are tough to find.

Still holding onto Gold via an GLD ETF, it is a larger % of my portfolio due to the run-up last year. I’m planning on using part of it for a down-payment for the next house…..in a couple years.

Bubblesitter

[Bubblesitter]

I’m still bullish on a couple sectors, but nearly completely bearish on everything. It seems very likely we are already in a recession.

I’m holding on to diversified oil and oil services companies. I’m still a believer that emerging markets (China, others) will continue to drive demand even during this recession. I guess the $64K question is whether the world catches a cold when the US sneezes.

I agree that some US export-centric manufacturers, Boeing, CAT, John Deere etc are in a good position with the weakening dollar. Strong food commodity prices may especially help Deere….more combines harvesting expensive wheat.

Some tech companies should do well, e.g. especially ones with good sales outside of US, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, etc. I’m scoping out small companies in alternative energy that may have defensible intellectual property that may make a breakthrough e.g. higher efficiency solar, biodiesel,etc. Famed venture capitalist Vinod Khoshla is now focused on these types of investments. Public ones are tough to find.

Still holding onto Gold via an GLD ETF, it is a larger % of my portfolio due to the run-up last year. I’m planning on using part of it for a down-payment for the next house…..in a couple years.

Bubblesitter

[bubba99]

I am in a similar situation, but my gold has been less than I would like. GDX is going up and down more like a stock, than a commodity – but GLD has been o.k. I am also long in Euro bonds that are doing well, but expiring this month.

I am real leary of stocks, but all that money has to go some where and the stock market may be the only place that can absorb all of the “new” dollars. I am hedging with SDS which goes up double when the S&P goes down.

I may want to shoot myself later, but I am thinking that there may be some bargains in the market, and that the overall market may be lackluster, but some discount consumer staples may do O.K.

My real worry is a fire sale on the dollar, and any dollar denominated CD’s and bonds may be seriously hurt.

[bubba99]

I am in a similar situation, but my gold has been less than I would like. GDX is going up and down more like a stock, than a commodity – but GLD has been o.k. I am also long in Euro bonds that are doing well, but expiring this month.

I am real leary of stocks, but all that money has to go some where and the stock market may be the only place that can absorb all of the “new” dollars. I am hedging with SDS which goes up double when the S&P goes down.

I may want to shoot myself later, but I am thinking that there may be some bargains in the market, and that the overall market may be lackluster, but some discount consumer staples may do O.K.

My real worry is a fire sale on the dollar, and any dollar denominated CD’s and bonds may be seriously hurt.

[bubba99]

I am in a similar situation, but my gold has been less than I would like. GDX is going up and down more like a stock, than a commodity – but GLD has been o.k. I am also long in Euro bonds that are doing well, but expiring this month.

I am real leary of stocks, but all that money has to go some where and the stock market may be the only place that can absorb all of the “new” dollars. I am hedging with SDS which goes up double when the S&P goes down.

I may want to shoot myself later, but I am thinking that there may be some bargains in the market, and that the overall market may be lackluster, but some discount consumer staples may do O.K.

My real worry is a fire sale on the dollar, and any dollar denominated CD’s and bonds may be seriously hurt.

[bubba99]

I am in a similar situation, but my gold has been less than I would like. GDX is going up and down more like a stock, than a commodity – but GLD has been o.k. I am also long in Euro bonds that are doing well, but expiring this month.

I am real leary of stocks, but all that money has to go some where and the stock market may be the only place that can absorb all of the “new” dollars. I am hedging with SDS which goes up double when the S&P goes down.

I may want to shoot myself later, but I am thinking that there may be some bargains in the market, and that the overall market may be lackluster, but some discount consumer staples may do O.K.

My real worry is a fire sale on the dollar, and any dollar denominated CD’s and bonds may be seriously hurt.

[bubba99]

I am in a similar situation, but my gold has been less than I would like. GDX is going up and down more like a stock, than a commodity – but GLD has been o.k. I am also long in Euro bonds that are doing well, but expiring this month.

I am real leary of stocks, but all that money has to go some where and the stock market may be the only place that can absorb all of the “new” dollars. I am hedging with SDS which goes up double when the S&P goes down.

I may want to shoot myself later, but I am thinking that there may be some bargains in the market, and that the overall market may be lackluster, but some discount consumer staples may do O.K.

My real worry is a fire sale on the dollar, and any dollar denominated CD’s and bonds may be seriously hurt.

[Duck]

I’m still stickng with my original plan (posted in Oct. aove) with a few adjustments. I got out of CAT and a couple mutual funds in my trading account and only hold DE and BRK alng with some international mutual funds. Lots of cash on the sidelines and hopefully more once a few RE deals close later in 2008. It seems like a good long term (5-10 years) trade will be the companies that benefit from emerging middle class in India, China, etc. Should mean higher corn, wheat, meat prices as they inprove their diets. Railroads should benefit, fertilizer companies, DE, etc. I’m looking for some ETF’s that might fit that model. Anyone have any ideas?

Financials were actually th best performing sector last week despite the bad news which could signal something close to a bottom for them, but I doubt it. I think the BA buyout of CFC may lend some transparency to the entire financial sector over the next 6-9 months. They aren’t expected to close until the 3rd qtr. so BA will have time to uncover every blemish on Angelo’s arse during that time (sorry for the visual). Meanwhile I expect the write offs to continue for at least the first 2 qtr’s of ’08.

A good trade might be the bonds of some these financials and hombuilders although many have already rallied.

My cash earning 5% is now earning about 3.5% so that’s dead money. Need to put it to work.

[Duck]

I’m still stickng with my original plan (posted in Oct. aove) with a few adjustments. I got out of CAT and a couple mutual funds in my trading account and only hold DE and BRK alng with some international mutual funds. Lots of cash on the sidelines and hopefully more once a few RE deals close later in 2008. It seems like a good long term (5-10 years) trade will be the companies that benefit from emerging middle class in India, China, etc. Should mean higher corn, wheat, meat prices as they inprove their diets. Railroads should benefit, fertilizer companies, DE, etc. I’m looking for some ETF’s that might fit that model. Anyone have any ideas?

Financials were actually th best performing sector last week despite the bad news which could signal something close to a bottom for them, but I doubt it. I think the BA buyout of CFC may lend some transparency to the entire financial sector over the next 6-9 months. They aren’t expected to close until the 3rd qtr. so BA will have time to uncover every blemish on Angelo’s arse during that time (sorry for the visual). Meanwhile I expect the write offs to continue for at least the first 2 qtr’s of ’08.

A good trade might be the bonds of some these financials and hombuilders although many have already rallied.

My cash earning 5% is now earning about 3.5% so that’s dead money. Need to put it to work.

[Author]

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