Are you more risk averse now?

[nocommonsense]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Resurrecting an old thread. My level of risk aversion is again reaching relatively high level. The Europe sovereign debt problem that is likely expanding has me a bit spooked. The Chinese property market is in serious bubble territory. Endless large deficits for years as partisan deadlocked congress won’t address near term or long term structural reform

Stocks been reaching good levels recently, perhaps time for another big pullback?

Nervous Bubblesitter[/quote]

I wish I had your prescience back in 2007 :(.

[nocommonsense]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Resurrecting an old thread. My level of risk aversion is again reaching relatively high level. The Europe sovereign debt problem that is likely expanding has me a bit spooked. The Chinese property market is in serious bubble territory. Endless large deficits for years as partisan deadlocked congress won’t address near term or long term structural reform

Stocks been reaching good levels recently, perhaps time for another big pullback?

Nervous Bubblesitter[/quote]

I wish I had your prescience back in 2007 :(.

[nocommonsense]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Resurrecting an old thread. My level of risk aversion is again reaching relatively high level. The Europe sovereign debt problem that is likely expanding has me a bit spooked. The Chinese property market is in serious bubble territory. Endless large deficits for years as partisan deadlocked congress won’t address near term or long term structural reform

Stocks been reaching good levels recently, perhaps time for another big pullback?

Nervous Bubblesitter[/quote]

I wish I had your prescience back in 2007 :(.

[Hatfield]

Ha, when I started reading this thread and saw that the bit about money in the bank earning 6% I said, whoa! Where? Then I noticed the date, lol. I lurk here frequently but don’t post that much.

I’m a former QCOMer, did really well with hoarded stock option grants, left the company a little over 5 years ago. In late 07 I started moving most of my money out of equities, so I caught the big pullback but very little of the subsequent gains. Still, my balance sheet is great, I can’t complain. My first house, a small beach cottage, was paid off years ago and is rented out. Our current home is a two-on-one with the rental from the other unit paying about half our mortgage (which is about 40% LTV). I already have a lot stashed away in gold ETFs and bullion (including 24 Krugerrands that I bought before Y2K at about 280 I think.) Have a lot in in bond funds, and quite a bit still in cash spread among several banks to stay within FDIC limits.

Looking forward, I have no clue what to do. I could pay off our current mortgage, but I had also been considering buying a small 4- to 6- unit apt complex in a decent neighborhood. I did seriously consider one on Hershel St in La Jolla but the numbers just didn’t pencil out. I like the beach areas but from what I’ve seen beach R.E. still seems overvalued. The DOW is still at 14 times earnings and the S&P’s over 17. I see little earnings growth potential near term, so I still think equities are overvalued as well.

For a while I was considering buying muni bonds near maturity and then holding them till maturity. Last time I seriously looked was about year ago. There were still some OK returns to be found, but I never proceeded. I wasn’t especially optimistic about many municipalities’ ability to pay back their obligations, and I’m not any more optimistic about that today.

Gold seems like it’s in a bubble, but then congress and Helicopter Ben are scaring the shit out of me, so maybe even at > 1300 gold’s not so crazy?

I don’t even care about growth anymore, I just want to hang on to what I have. I don’t want to get creamed when It happens, whatever It is.

What’s a Pigg to do?

[Hatfield]

Ha, when I started reading this thread and saw that the bit about money in the bank earning 6% I said, whoa! Where? Then I noticed the date, lol. I lurk here frequently but don’t post that much.

I’m a former QCOMer, did really well with hoarded stock option grants, left the company a little over 5 years ago. In late 07 I started moving most of my money out of equities, so I caught the big pullback but very little of the subsequent gains. Still, my balance sheet is great, I can’t complain. My first house, a small beach cottage, was paid off years ago and is rented out. Our current home is a two-on-one with the rental from the other unit paying about half our mortgage (which is about 40% LTV). I already have a lot stashed away in gold ETFs and bullion (including 24 Krugerrands that I bought before Y2K at about 280 I think.) Have a lot in in bond funds, and quite a bit still in cash spread among several banks to stay within FDIC limits.

Looking forward, I have no clue what to do. I could pay off our current mortgage, but I had also been considering buying a small 4- to 6- unit apt complex in a decent neighborhood. I did seriously consider one on Hershel St in La Jolla but the numbers just didn’t pencil out. I like the beach areas but from what I’ve seen beach R.E. still seems overvalued. The DOW is still at 14 times earnings and the S&P’s over 17. I see little earnings growth potential near term, so I still think equities are overvalued as well.

For a while I was considering buying muni bonds near maturity and then holding them till maturity. Last time I seriously looked was about year ago. There were still some OK returns to be found, but I never proceeded. I wasn’t especially optimistic about many municipalities’ ability to pay back their obligations, and I’m not any more optimistic about that today.

Gold seems like it’s in a bubble, but then congress and Helicopter Ben are scaring the shit out of me, so maybe even at > 1300 gold’s not so crazy?

I don’t even care about growth anymore, I just want to hang on to what I have. I don’t want to get creamed when It happens, whatever It is.

What’s a Pigg to do?

[Hatfield]

Ha, when I started reading this thread and saw that the bit about money in the bank earning 6% I said, whoa! Where? Then I noticed the date, lol. I lurk here frequently but don’t post that much.

I’m a former QCOMer, did really well with hoarded stock option grants, left the company a little over 5 years ago. In late 07 I started moving most of my money out of equities, so I caught the big pullback but very little of the subsequent gains. Still, my balance sheet is great, I can’t complain. My first house, a small beach cottage, was paid off years ago and is rented out. Our current home is a two-on-one with the rental from the other unit paying about half our mortgage (which is about 40% LTV). I already have a lot stashed away in gold ETFs and bullion (including 24 Krugerrands that I bought before Y2K at about 280 I think.) Have a lot in in bond funds, and quite a bit still in cash spread among several banks to stay within FDIC limits.

Looking forward, I have no clue what to do. I could pay off our current mortgage, but I had also been considering buying a small 4- to 6- unit apt complex in a decent neighborhood. I did seriously consider one on Hershel St in La Jolla but the numbers just didn’t pencil out. I like the beach areas but from what I’ve seen beach R.E. still seems overvalued. The DOW is still at 14 times earnings and the S&P’s over 17. I see little earnings growth potential near term, so I still think equities are overvalued as well.

For a while I was considering buying muni bonds near maturity and then holding them till maturity. Last time I seriously looked was about year ago. There were still some OK returns to be found, but I never proceeded. I wasn’t especially optimistic about many municipalities’ ability to pay back their obligations, and I’m not any more optimistic about that today.

Gold seems like it’s in a bubble, but then congress and Helicopter Ben are scaring the shit out of me, so maybe even at > 1300 gold’s not so crazy?

I don’t even care about growth anymore, I just want to hang on to what I have. I don’t want to get creamed when It happens, whatever It is.

What’s a Pigg to do?

[Hatfield]

Ha, when I started reading this thread and saw that the bit about money in the bank earning 6% I said, whoa! Where? Then I noticed the date, lol. I lurk here frequently but don’t post that much.

I’m a former QCOMer, did really well with hoarded stock option grants, left the company a little over 5 years ago. In late 07 I started moving most of my money out of equities, so I caught the big pullback but very little of the subsequent gains. Still, my balance sheet is great, I can’t complain. My first house, a small beach cottage, was paid off years ago and is rented out. Our current home is a two-on-one with the rental from the other unit paying about half our mortgage (which is about 40% LTV). I already have a lot stashed away in gold ETFs and bullion (including 24 Krugerrands that I bought before Y2K at about 280 I think.) Have a lot in in bond funds, and quite a bit still in cash spread among several banks to stay within FDIC limits.

Looking forward, I have no clue what to do. I could pay off our current mortgage, but I had also been considering buying a small 4- to 6- unit apt complex in a decent neighborhood. I did seriously consider one on Hershel St in La Jolla but the numbers just didn’t pencil out. I like the beach areas but from what I’ve seen beach R.E. still seems overvalued. The DOW is still at 14 times earnings and the S&P’s over 17. I see little earnings growth potential near term, so I still think equities are overvalued as well.

For a while I was considering buying muni bonds near maturity and then holding them till maturity. Last time I seriously looked was about year ago. There were still some OK returns to be found, but I never proceeded. I wasn’t especially optimistic about many municipalities’ ability to pay back their obligations, and I’m not any more optimistic about that today.

Gold seems like it’s in a bubble, but then congress and Helicopter Ben are scaring the shit out of me, so maybe even at > 1300 gold’s not so crazy?

I don’t even care about growth anymore, I just want to hang on to what I have. I don’t want to get creamed when It happens, whatever It is.

What’s a Pigg to do?

[Hatfield]

Ha, when I started reading this thread and saw that the bit about money in the bank earning 6% I said, whoa! Where? Then I noticed the date, lol. I lurk here frequently but don’t post that much.

I’m a former QCOMer, did really well with hoarded stock option grants, left the company a little over 5 years ago. In late 07 I started moving most of my money out of equities, so I caught the big pullback but very little of the subsequent gains. Still, my balance sheet is great, I can’t complain. My first house, a small beach cottage, was paid off years ago and is rented out. Our current home is a two-on-one with the rental from the other unit paying about half our mortgage (which is about 40% LTV). I already have a lot stashed away in gold ETFs and bullion (including 24 Krugerrands that I bought before Y2K at about 280 I think.) Have a lot in in bond funds, and quite a bit still in cash spread among several banks to stay within FDIC limits.

Looking forward, I have no clue what to do. I could pay off our current mortgage, but I had also been considering buying a small 4- to 6- unit apt complex in a decent neighborhood. I did seriously consider one on Hershel St in La Jolla but the numbers just didn’t pencil out. I like the beach areas but from what I’ve seen beach R.E. still seems overvalued. The DOW is still at 14 times earnings and the S&P’s over 17. I see little earnings growth potential near term, so I still think equities are overvalued as well.

For a while I was considering buying muni bonds near maturity and then holding them till maturity. Last time I seriously looked was about year ago. There were still some OK returns to be found, but I never proceeded. I wasn’t especially optimistic about many municipalities’ ability to pay back their obligations, and I’m not any more optimistic about that today.

Gold seems like it’s in a bubble, but then congress and Helicopter Ben are scaring the shit out of me, so maybe even at > 1300 gold’s not so crazy?

I don’t even care about growth anymore, I just want to hang on to what I have. I don’t want to get creamed when It happens, whatever It is.

What’s a Pigg to do?

[DataAgent]

Hatfield –> cash –> mattress

[DataAgent]

Hatfield –> cash –> mattress

[DataAgent]

Hatfield –> cash –> mattress

[DataAgent]

Hatfield –> cash –> mattress

[DataAgent]

Hatfield –> cash –> mattress

[CA renter]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Resurrecting an old thread. My level of risk aversion is again reaching relatively high level. The Europe sovereign debt problem that is likely expanding has me a bit spooked. The Chinese property market is in serious bubble territory. Endless large deficits for years as partisan deadlocked congress won’t address near term or long term structural reform

Stocks been reaching good levels recently, perhaps time for another big pullback?

Nervous Bubblesitter[/quote]

Totally concur with your feelings, Bubblesitter.

I was shorting from late 2004 through October 2008, at which point I got out of all positions except for long Swiss bonds (now out). Only now, after over two years, I’m beginning to feel like shorting again. It certainly feels very frothy, with just as many risks (or more!) as there were in 2007/2008, IMHO.

I think we’re going to see the dollar strengthen while asset prices fall. We can hope. 🙂

Good calls!

[CA renter]

[quote=Bubblesitter]Resurrecting an old thread. My level of risk aversion is again reaching relatively high level. The Europe sovereign debt problem that is likely expanding has me a bit spooked. The Chinese property market is in serious bubble territory. Endless large deficits for years as partisan deadlocked congress won’t address near term or long term structural reform

Stocks been reaching good levels recently, perhaps time for another big pullback?

Nervous Bubblesitter[/quote]

Totally concur with your feelings, Bubblesitter.

I was shorting from late 2004 through October 2008, at which point I got out of all positions except for long Swiss bonds (now out). Only now, after over two years, I’m beginning to feel like shorting again. It certainly feels very frothy, with just as many risks (or more!) as there were in 2007/2008, IMHO.

I think we’re going to see the dollar strengthen while asset prices fall. We can hope. 🙂

Good calls!

[Author]

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