Are home prices just silly right now?

[mixxalot]

Point Loma, Del Mar, Pacific Beach, Encinitas and Carlsbad as well as La Jolla, Ocean Beach and Rancho Santa Fe are still crazy ridiculous even for a tiny 1-2 bedroom place compared to much larger nicer homes farther inland in Santee and El Cajon.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=mixxalot]Point Loma, Del Mar, Pacific Beach, Encinitas and Carlsbad as well as La Jolla, Ocean Beach and Rancho Santa Fe are still crazy ridiculous even for a tiny 1-2 bedroom place compared to much larger nicer homes farther inland in Santee and El Cajon.[/quote]mixxalot, even a “working class” town or area situated in or near the “coastal” zone (within 7 miles from the ocean but even moreso within 5 miles) is going to have higher-priced housing than East County … yes, even National City and Linda Vista (SD), for example. The sole reason for this is because of their better weather and that A/C is really not needed in these areas (which costs a lot of money to run). Even smallish older homes in “coastal” Chula Vista (2/1/1’s and 3/1/1’s) are worth more than a 1800 – 2300 sf home in most (non-HOA) areas of SD East County (where a homeowner would be allowed to park their big toys). In coastal CA counties, location means everything when determining real estate values. There is nothing anyone can do about this. It is what it is.

[bearishgurl]

mixxalot, if you’re actually willing to live in AZ, then SD East County would be a better alternative for you, imho. It’s not as hot as AZ and you’re right in that you can get a lot of bang for the buck out there in housing and also easily find someplace to park a (trailered) sailboat for “free” on your own property (or at the very least, bring it “home” 1-2 times per month to more conveniently load it up for a trip) :=)

Just look at the listings out there very objectively (even the “bargain-priced ones) taking the lot size, lot configuration, lot topography and type of soil into account and take a good inspector with you before making your offer. Do not be afraid to write in contingencies in your offer that you have X number of days to approve both your inspection report and engineering report during escrow (if you need one of those in escrow, as well, and you very well may). “Traditional” sellers out there are used to this protocol. Good luck.

[njtosd]

[quote=livinincali][quote=njtosd][quote=moneymaker]It seems to me there are 2 options for the government for stimulus, lower rates or create jobs. Ok already tried to lower rates, now can’t go any lower. So time to create jobs soon, 2 ways to do that also. Hire more government workers/create infrastructure jobs or the Trump strategy (deport the illegals).[/quote]

I don’t necessarily agree either of your points but you have, at least, left out one other option. The government should institute reforms to issue patents more quickly. This piece is about 5 years old but is still relevant. In short, stop siphoning money from the US Patent Office and issue patents faster. Each newly issued patent creates *on average* 3-10 new jobs.

Unfortunately the authors of the actual study say the 3-10 jobs per patent is bullshit.

http://patentlyo.com/patent/2011/08/guest-post-what-we-said-and-didnt-say-in-the-berkeley-patent-study.html
[/quote][/quote]

I see your point, but the authors did not say their data contravened the NYT piece, they just felt it was too much of a stretch. There is no doubt patents fuel job creation, and, generally, higher $ jobs. http://www.ipwatchdog.com/2015/03/23/ip-protection-is-key-to-u-s-job-creation/id=55978/

And the point of the article (and many, many more*) was not that the government should give the PTO $ to do its job, it was simply showing why it should stop siphoning money away from the PTO. Should be a no brainer.

*some have even accused the US Govt of running a Ponzi scheme – claiming filing fees are for the patent application process and then diverting the funds to other uses http://www.ipwatchdog.com/2011/10/17/patent-funding-scam-uspto-funding-is-like-a-ponzi-scheme/id=19869/

[mixxalot]

So why is Mexico in TJ and Ensenada coastal areas dirt cheap right now? I know a cute lady that works at the BOFA in Point Loma who lives in upscale part of TJ and only pays $250 a month for a 2 bedroom apartment! She was telling me the violence is overplayed and only between cartels and white folks are left alone there.

[mixxalot]

I am considering it since a good friend recently bought a 4B/4BA at Riverwalk for 450K in Santee. Not bad considering the same place in coastal areas of SD sells for 2-5M. He is 20 miles from the beach which isn’t bad.

I see pretty good deals around Mission Valley area as well and MV is more centrally located.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=mixxalot]So why is Mexico in TJ and Ensenada coastal areas dirt cheap right now? I know a cute lady that works at the BOFA in Point Loma who lives in upscale part of TJ and only pays $250 a month for a 2 bedroom apartment! She was telling me the violence is overplayed and only between cartels and white folks are left alone there.[/quote]

It’s all perception. But Americans don’t go to TJ as much anymore. At least like I remember the 90s. If you buy now it will payoff when the trend reverses, maybe decades from now.

[mixxalot]

True and since I am fluent in Spanish it’s a possible way to afford ocean front living.

[FlyerInHi]

Mexico is a middle income country. Compared to other cities the same size in Latin America, real estate in Tijuana is cheap, especially given the fact that it’s right next to the US, on the ocean.

I know a Mexican guy who lives in TJ and commutes to San Diego.

I like Mexican culture but I can’t stand the mess. Plus aside from some light dishes, I don’t like the food.

[CA renter]

[quote=harvey]Shadowstats is a perfect example demonstrating that one can find any data on the internet to support any economic argument – provided one does not apply any common sense when citing the numbers.

Nevertheless, there is no recession. The word recession has a specific definition involving hard data. It is not based upon subjective evaluation by economic curmudgeons.

There hasn’t been a recession for over half a decade, and there are no real indications one is developing.[/quote]

If you had read this entire thread, not to mention just that one post, you would understand that the official unemployment rates were listed there as well. I even noted it in my post. Shadowstats attempts to correct for certain deficiencies in the official numbers. Nobody is saying that it is the gold standard for statistics, it’s just another way of looking at things (for the record, I think he overstates things, but at least he tries to address some of the weaknesses in the official data). Even the experts acknowledge that “official” statistics aren’t particularly accurate, nor do these official numbers convey the full picture of what’s going on in the economy. It’s always best to look at a variety of sources and methods for gaining information in order to fill in the gaps.

I’m well aware of the official definition of a recession. But that definition is fairly meaningless to those who are out of a job, insecure in their jobs, underemployed, and/or making less today than they were 10+ years ago. Some would argue that we’ve been in an “unofficial” recession since the late 90s which has been masked (just barely) by serial credit/asset price bubbles. Some claim it’s been going on even longer than this.

We need to look at debt levels if we want to get a better picture of where we stand and what might happen in coming years, too. And this is happening while the Fed/govt are in a weaker position now, as opposed to during the financial crisis, to counter any potential problems.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_deleveraging

[Jazzman]

Looming Recession
All said and done home prices are silly in many part of the world, not just SD. A correction will come about when there is a recession, and a recession will come about some time in the next 1-3 years. I think all Piggs are probably Fed watchers, which is central to so much forecasting. A combination of serious problems in China, asset over-valuations and the Fed’s eventual tightening is apparently going to bring about a lot of volatility soon. The longer they put off raising rates, the more nervous they appear, and the more volatile things will become IMO. Wildly fluctuating commodity prices, devalued currencies and increased borrowing costs in EM’s plus a recession in Asia are forming like a dark cloud. Something has to give. Let’s face it, China is a huge force now so coupled with the US there is double the chance of things going wrong with the global economy.

Home Price Correction
I believe the likelihood of a home price correction sits somewhere between very likely and inevitable. That realization will fall sharply into focus when rates normalize (revert to historical averages). At the moment, values are being measured by the ‘monthly nut’, so actual values are considered irrelevant by the Fed. They believe levels or personal indebtedness are more important, and I presume that means since subprime is not present we have less to fear.

Financially Savvy
If you look back over the last twenty years, I’m guessing home prices have increased three to fours time higher than wages. I know that to be the case in some markets so it’s sure to be true to an extent in CA. I would not buy now. I wouldn’t have bought even in 2012. Prices would need to drop quite a lot before I’d consider buying in CA, either for a home or as a investor. Simply put, prices are silly so ‘caveat emptor’ your personal balance sheet before you look beneath the bonnet of your dream home.

[CA renter]

[quote=mixxalot]True and since I am fluent in Spanish it’s a possible way to afford ocean front living.[/quote]

If it’s really as cheap and safe as your friend says it is, and if you are bilingual, this sounds like a really good idea.

If you check it out down there, please give us an update.

[bearishgurl]

I haven’t been paying attention in recent years and am unclear if Americans are actually allowed to “own” land in MX. Aren’t/weren’t Americans who bought RE in MX just deeded a “99-year lease,” or something of that nature … in lieu of being deeded fee-simple ownership rights? The only Americans I know of who “own” property in MX are Mexican citizens or dual citizens who may or may not have a US-born spouse on title with them, who, by proxy, also “co-own” the land and any improvements on it.

[spdrun]

In many places, ownership is a lease regardless of who owns the land. I know that a friend who had an apartment in London had to pay through the nose to renew their “ground lease”, which was separate from owning the apartment.

Even in NYC, most apartments have a 50-60 year “proprietary lease” which generally auto-renews. Except if the building itself is on leased land, then it’s dependent on the land lease.

[FlyerInHi]

Spd, that’s why the duke of Westminster is so rich. The more rich people buy in London, the better for him.

[Author]

Posts