Apparently we are at the bottom in Cali

[carlsbadworker]

There is no doubt a buying frenzy going on around Temecula. The monthly sale volume has more than doubled (any almost tripled) from the end of last year low. It is undoubtfully justified by one market fundamental: affordability. Between earlier this year till now, I believe at least 15%-20% more household there now qualify for median housing price. So it is unsurprising to see a sale volume equals to just 1% of the total household each month.
But going forward, REO has been increasing at an astonishing rate of 15% per month lately (a number 50% higher than the current high monthly sale volume). Based on stats from foreclosure radar, it will climb from this level for a while. With tightening lending standard, it is hard to see the buyers continuously be able to swallow the incoming REO inventory. However, if the government or the banking industry keeps on giving easy money out, it is hard to say that we might not see RE price bottom soon in Temecula.
To sum it up, we have buying frenzy in Temecula but we also have a selling frenzy (primarily REO) in Temecula as well. We know for certain that the selling frenzy will not ease for months ahead, but the buying side is a lot more uncertain. I think the worst case is the price will be sideline or increase a little bit due to the continuous buying frenzy. My money however would be betting on some cooling from buyers coming this fall.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Maybe wrong here , but I think at least some of the buying that has going on in Temecula is being driven by L.A./O.C. Individuals looking for retirement/investment homes,

At least that is the case in at least two sales that I know of personally , They plan to retire in five or so years, keeping the Temecula home as a second home (or rental) until then, when they retire they plan on selling or renting their much smaller and much older L.A. and O.C. homes and move to T.V. .

Better than Vegas or phoenix or somewhere in the mid west seems to be the rallying call .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Maybe wrong here , but I think at least some of the buying that has going on in Temecula is being driven by L.A./O.C. Individuals looking for retirement/investment homes,

At least that is the case in at least two sales that I know of personally , They plan to retire in five or so years, keeping the Temecula home as a second home (or rental) until then, when they retire they plan on selling or renting their much smaller and much older L.A. and O.C. homes and move to T.V. .

Better than Vegas or phoenix or somewhere in the mid west seems to be the rallying call .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Maybe wrong here , but I think at least some of the buying that has going on in Temecula is being driven by L.A./O.C. Individuals looking for retirement/investment homes,

At least that is the case in at least two sales that I know of personally , They plan to retire in five or so years, keeping the Temecula home as a second home (or rental) until then, when they retire they plan on selling or renting their much smaller and much older L.A. and O.C. homes and move to T.V. .

Better than Vegas or phoenix or somewhere in the mid west seems to be the rallying call .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Maybe wrong here , but I think at least some of the buying that has going on in Temecula is being driven by L.A./O.C. Individuals looking for retirement/investment homes,

At least that is the case in at least two sales that I know of personally , They plan to retire in five or so years, keeping the Temecula home as a second home (or rental) until then, when they retire they plan on selling or renting their much smaller and much older L.A. and O.C. homes and move to T.V. .

Better than Vegas or phoenix or somewhere in the mid west seems to be the rallying call .

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

Maybe wrong here , but I think at least some of the buying that has going on in Temecula is being driven by L.A./O.C. Individuals looking for retirement/investment homes,

At least that is the case in at least two sales that I know of personally , They plan to retire in five or so years, keeping the Temecula home as a second home (or rental) until then, when they retire they plan on selling or renting their much smaller and much older L.A. and O.C. homes and move to T.V. .

Better than Vegas or phoenix or somewhere in the mid west seems to be the rallying call .

[gandalf]

How much of an impact will foreign buyers make? Friend of mine from Canada (Asian money), just bought in RSF and thinks he got a deal.

Any thoughts?

Anybody remember Rockefeller Center in NYC getting sold to Japanese investors back in the 80’s? It was a big deal back then. Interesting how things cycle.

[gandalf]

How much of an impact will foreign buyers make? Friend of mine from Canada (Asian money), just bought in RSF and thinks he got a deal.

Any thoughts?

Anybody remember Rockefeller Center in NYC getting sold to Japanese investors back in the 80’s? It was a big deal back then. Interesting how things cycle.

[gandalf]

How much of an impact will foreign buyers make? Friend of mine from Canada (Asian money), just bought in RSF and thinks he got a deal.

Any thoughts?

Anybody remember Rockefeller Center in NYC getting sold to Japanese investors back in the 80’s? It was a big deal back then. Interesting how things cycle.

[gandalf]

How much of an impact will foreign buyers make? Friend of mine from Canada (Asian money), just bought in RSF and thinks he got a deal.

Any thoughts?

Anybody remember Rockefeller Center in NYC getting sold to Japanese investors back in the 80’s? It was a big deal back then. Interesting how things cycle.

[gandalf]

How much of an impact will foreign buyers make? Friend of mine from Canada (Asian money), just bought in RSF and thinks he got a deal.

Any thoughts?

Anybody remember Rockefeller Center in NYC getting sold to Japanese investors back in the 80’s? It was a big deal back then. Interesting how things cycle.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.

As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394

Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.

$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.

I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.

As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394

Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.

$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.

I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.

As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394

Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.

$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.

I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.

[temeculaguy]

I agree with paramount’s experience, the buying frenzy is on like donky kong up here. I think Nor’s opinion of it now being similar to “midwest pricing” and appealing to retirees, I see a lot of them at the open houses, exactly what he refers to, the “pre-retirees” in their fifties and sixties, buying nice places in the 2’s and 3’s near wineries and golf. There is a lot to be said about that as a demographic, many early retirees are looking for the ability to pay cash while being within driving range of grandchildren.

As far as the REO’s, I am definately going to buy this fall, I am seeing the next pricing chunk, despite the frenzy and I have seen some examples of the frenzy waning. Just saw a bunch of new listings, shorts and reo’s start out at sub 100 a square for medium sized places, not mcmansions, soething we haven’t seen in a while. I am also seeing 1996 price examples, 1700 sq for 170k, 2200 sq for 220k, etc. and they are in nice tracts. It was one thing to see 3500 sq for 350k, but to see smaller places for a $100 is beyond what I ever expected. We are about to over arch, overcorrect if you will. I’m glad I was outbid last month.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31554-Via-San-Carlos-92592/home/6251125

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45212-Corte-Palmito-92592/home/6252317

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31780-Loma-Linda-92592/home/6251394

Just a few of the new listings this weekend, the popcorn is popping hard, all are penciling out below rent, all below 250k list for decent sfr fixers.

$1265 is the P&I on 200k loan for a house of 250k (with 20% down, 50k), $1500 is rent for a townhouse here, $884 is the P&I on the cheapest one I linked with 20% (35k) and it would rent for $1500 easily.

I’ve been thinking about the future of the valley because of these prices and despite all of the fears of economic meltdown, if the rest of the state followed the Temecula model it would be the best thing that ever happened economically. Retirees wouldn’t leave with their money, families would have lots of disposable income, young couples could actually buy and have kids, mom’s could stay home. Those three houses feed into a 800 api school. Why are our leaders trying to fight the correction in housing, they should be rolling out the red carpet and ushering in the next phase, where people have more than half of their income available to feed economic growth.

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