AP Economic Stress Index (by county) & Advanced/Emerging Country Distress Chart

[Coronita]

[quote=bearishgurl]flu, this is a GREAT discussion which I need to get back to later, but let me ask you, “Are you aware of ANY YEAR where SF County real estate took a nosedive in value?”

I was just looking at SM County on realtor.com a couple of weeks ago and noticed that nice 1950’s-60’s houses (1600+ sf) with a view (some had a “peek” ocean view) in Pacifica and San Mateo had asking prices in the $500 – $750 range. They were mostly located adjacent to protected habitats and state parks.

I haven’t really studied Mtn. View and would be interested to hear exactly what (and where) your friend is buying a 1600 sf home for $1.1M that is NOT within SF County, west Palo Alto or situated inside a covenant.

Of, course SF and SM County don’t have any new tracts, flu! The land there ran out long ago. I believe that’s why their populace is so “solvent.” They didn’t take out questionable financing to buy brand new construction that had questionable underlying value.

I think Alameda County, by now, would be close to running out of land. If there’s any left at all that was buildable, wouldn’t it have to be east of Livermore?

Just drove thru Gilroy this summer. Got off the fwy and even drove around a little. There’s plenty of land still left in the “garlic capital” but didn’t see any building going on. It’s just a lo-o-o-o-ong slow commute up the 101 from there. Totally not worth commuting from just to live in something *new.*[/quote]

Actually in SF, there was about a 5-6 month window when prime property did decline I think roughly in 2008..But there were a lot of people that also overpaid. I’m pretty sure areas like Pacific Heights and Nob Hill though, are doing alright.
SF RE is pretty interesting because rules are so pro-renters…Often, some for sales read “for sale…(home detail)… Currently, tenant occupied….” Because I believe if it’s currently tenant occupied, you can’t simply just not renew their lease (the entire SF rent control/pro rental rules) I heard about folks not knowing, buying place, and end up having to pay the current tenant to move out after escrow. Oops.

[joec]

Having spent pretty much my whole life up in Norcal (I’ved lived in Mt. View, Sunnyvale, Peninsula (San Mateo area), East bay, SF even…), buying and living there only works if you are in the areas of employment where you can make the big IPO bucks and that’s assuming you aren’t one of the basic tech workers getting outsourced or cut back.

That said, real estate up there is insane and unless you’re making bank from an IPO, you’ll be competing with a ton of people who are extremely wealthy. Pretty much, 1 mil up in the best areas gets you some 1950-1960 track house with 3 beds and 1 or 2 baths. All the folks I know up there has had family help to buy (sorta easy if family drops down 500k for you). Cupertino, Mt View are crazy.

It IS true that compared to here, buying in SF will always be more resilient due to what SF offers, but I don’t think it really has anything to do with how old the lots are. It’s simply SF vs SD. You can’t really compare them at all because they are so different. SF employment (and generally the South SF (Genentech, biotech), Peninsula (VC), Santa Clara (Intel, Google, AAPL, most startups) is a ton more diverse than SD with just their biotech.

There has been new places built up there in the peninsula (I know since I’ve looked), but they tend to be smaller and extremely crammed in I’ve noticed.

As flu said, I think if you are working at the forefront of tech, nor cal is probably the only place you should be at. Jobs there pay a lot more than SD and you have folks you probably know helping you network as well.

SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…

[joec]

Having spent pretty much my whole life up in Norcal (I’ved lived in Mt. View, Sunnyvale, Peninsula (San Mateo area), East bay, SF even…), buying and living there only works if you are in the areas of employment where you can make the big IPO bucks and that’s assuming you aren’t one of the basic tech workers getting outsourced or cut back.

That said, real estate up there is insane and unless you’re making bank from an IPO, you’ll be competing with a ton of people who are extremely wealthy. Pretty much, 1 mil up in the best areas gets you some 1950-1960 track house with 3 beds and 1 or 2 baths. All the folks I know up there has had family help to buy (sorta easy if family drops down 500k for you). Cupertino, Mt View are crazy.

It IS true that compared to here, buying in SF will always be more resilient due to what SF offers, but I don’t think it really has anything to do with how old the lots are. It’s simply SF vs SD. You can’t really compare them at all because they are so different. SF employment (and generally the South SF (Genentech, biotech), Peninsula (VC), Santa Clara (Intel, Google, AAPL, most startups) is a ton more diverse than SD with just their biotech.

There has been new places built up there in the peninsula (I know since I’ve looked), but they tend to be smaller and extremely crammed in I’ve noticed.

As flu said, I think if you are working at the forefront of tech, nor cal is probably the only place you should be at. Jobs there pay a lot more than SD and you have folks you probably know helping you network as well.

SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…

[joec]

Having spent pretty much my whole life up in Norcal (I’ved lived in Mt. View, Sunnyvale, Peninsula (San Mateo area), East bay, SF even…), buying and living there only works if you are in the areas of employment where you can make the big IPO bucks and that’s assuming you aren’t one of the basic tech workers getting outsourced or cut back.

That said, real estate up there is insane and unless you’re making bank from an IPO, you’ll be competing with a ton of people who are extremely wealthy. Pretty much, 1 mil up in the best areas gets you some 1950-1960 track house with 3 beds and 1 or 2 baths. All the folks I know up there has had family help to buy (sorta easy if family drops down 500k for you). Cupertino, Mt View are crazy.

It IS true that compared to here, buying in SF will always be more resilient due to what SF offers, but I don’t think it really has anything to do with how old the lots are. It’s simply SF vs SD. You can’t really compare them at all because they are so different. SF employment (and generally the South SF (Genentech, biotech), Peninsula (VC), Santa Clara (Intel, Google, AAPL, most startups) is a ton more diverse than SD with just their biotech.

There has been new places built up there in the peninsula (I know since I’ve looked), but they tend to be smaller and extremely crammed in I’ve noticed.

As flu said, I think if you are working at the forefront of tech, nor cal is probably the only place you should be at. Jobs there pay a lot more than SD and you have folks you probably know helping you network as well.

SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…

[joec]

Having spent pretty much my whole life up in Norcal (I’ved lived in Mt. View, Sunnyvale, Peninsula (San Mateo area), East bay, SF even…), buying and living there only works if you are in the areas of employment where you can make the big IPO bucks and that’s assuming you aren’t one of the basic tech workers getting outsourced or cut back.

That said, real estate up there is insane and unless you’re making bank from an IPO, you’ll be competing with a ton of people who are extremely wealthy. Pretty much, 1 mil up in the best areas gets you some 1950-1960 track house with 3 beds and 1 or 2 baths. All the folks I know up there has had family help to buy (sorta easy if family drops down 500k for you). Cupertino, Mt View are crazy.

It IS true that compared to here, buying in SF will always be more resilient due to what SF offers, but I don’t think it really has anything to do with how old the lots are. It’s simply SF vs SD. You can’t really compare them at all because they are so different. SF employment (and generally the South SF (Genentech, biotech), Peninsula (VC), Santa Clara (Intel, Google, AAPL, most startups) is a ton more diverse than SD with just their biotech.

There has been new places built up there in the peninsula (I know since I’ve looked), but they tend to be smaller and extremely crammed in I’ve noticed.

As flu said, I think if you are working at the forefront of tech, nor cal is probably the only place you should be at. Jobs there pay a lot more than SD and you have folks you probably know helping you network as well.

SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…

[joec]

Having spent pretty much my whole life up in Norcal (I’ved lived in Mt. View, Sunnyvale, Peninsula (San Mateo area), East bay, SF even…), buying and living there only works if you are in the areas of employment where you can make the big IPO bucks and that’s assuming you aren’t one of the basic tech workers getting outsourced or cut back.

That said, real estate up there is insane and unless you’re making bank from an IPO, you’ll be competing with a ton of people who are extremely wealthy. Pretty much, 1 mil up in the best areas gets you some 1950-1960 track house with 3 beds and 1 or 2 baths. All the folks I know up there has had family help to buy (sorta easy if family drops down 500k for you). Cupertino, Mt View are crazy.

It IS true that compared to here, buying in SF will always be more resilient due to what SF offers, but I don’t think it really has anything to do with how old the lots are. It’s simply SF vs SD. You can’t really compare them at all because they are so different. SF employment (and generally the South SF (Genentech, biotech), Peninsula (VC), Santa Clara (Intel, Google, AAPL, most startups) is a ton more diverse than SD with just their biotech.

There has been new places built up there in the peninsula (I know since I’ve looked), but they tend to be smaller and extremely crammed in I’ve noticed.

As flu said, I think if you are working at the forefront of tech, nor cal is probably the only place you should be at. Jobs there pay a lot more than SD and you have folks you probably know helping you network as well.

SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…

[bearishgurl]

[quote=joec] . . . SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…[/quote]

joec, just curious, what brought you to SD? Was it a job? If so, did that job pay more than what you were making in “silly valley” (your words :=))

My kid has lived in 3 different SF flats in the last six years but has been in this last flat on the top of Portrero for about 4 yrs. It is a 2200 sf 4/2 and has a panoramic 270 deg. view facing NE, N, NW, W and SW. Absolutely unobstructed and totally awesome. Rent is $2200 split 4 ways ($550 ea). Slant pkg. is avail on street and unit is on a bus line.

I’m always curious why people leave that pay scale and lifestyle and move to SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=joec] . . . SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…[/quote]

joec, just curious, what brought you to SD? Was it a job? If so, did that job pay more than what you were making in “silly valley” (your words :=))

My kid has lived in 3 different SF flats in the last six years but has been in this last flat on the top of Portrero for about 4 yrs. It is a 2200 sf 4/2 and has a panoramic 270 deg. view facing NE, N, NW, W and SW. Absolutely unobstructed and totally awesome. Rent is $2200 split 4 ways ($550 ea). Slant pkg. is avail on street and unit is on a bus line.

I’m always curious why people leave that pay scale and lifestyle and move to SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=joec] . . . SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…[/quote]

joec, just curious, what brought you to SD? Was it a job? If so, did that job pay more than what you were making in “silly valley” (your words :=))

My kid has lived in 3 different SF flats in the last six years but has been in this last flat on the top of Portrero for about 4 yrs. It is a 2200 sf 4/2 and has a panoramic 270 deg. view facing NE, N, NW, W and SW. Absolutely unobstructed and totally awesome. Rent is $2200 split 4 ways ($550 ea). Slant pkg. is avail on street and unit is on a bus line.

I’m always curious why people leave that pay scale and lifestyle and move to SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=joec] . . . SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…[/quote]

joec, just curious, what brought you to SD? Was it a job? If so, did that job pay more than what you were making in “silly valley” (your words :=))

My kid has lived in 3 different SF flats in the last six years but has been in this last flat on the top of Portrero for about 4 yrs. It is a 2200 sf 4/2 and has a panoramic 270 deg. view facing NE, N, NW, W and SW. Absolutely unobstructed and totally awesome. Rent is $2200 split 4 ways ($550 ea). Slant pkg. is avail on street and unit is on a bus line.

I’m always curious why people leave that pay scale and lifestyle and move to SD County.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=joec] . . . SF Rentals are extremely pro-renters. We used to pay maybe 1200-1300 for a 1 bedroom and there were people in the same building renting for 300 bucks/month in downtown SF. Maybe like in NY, some folks keep apartments since it’s cheaper to just keep it to crash when they go out to party than to let someone else move in and let the landlord raise the rents then. Parking sucks though at 300/month too at least.

Anyhow, buying in SF has extremely low cap rates so it’s for folks who are in it for the very very long haul I’ve read…[/quote]

joec, just curious, what brought you to SD? Was it a job? If so, did that job pay more than what you were making in “silly valley” (your words :=))

My kid has lived in 3 different SF flats in the last six years but has been in this last flat on the top of Portrero for about 4 yrs. It is a 2200 sf 4/2 and has a panoramic 270 deg. view facing NE, N, NW, W and SW. Absolutely unobstructed and totally awesome. Rent is $2200 split 4 ways ($550 ea). Slant pkg. is avail on street and unit is on a bus line.

I’m always curious why people leave that pay scale and lifestyle and move to SD County.

[joec]

We left primarily so we can own a house (if that’s your thing which was ours). It is a ton more affordable here. This is why as bad as the bears see it, housing here in SD for what you get is “cheap” for any norcal or LA person. Pay is lower, but housing cost is much higher than your wage would be up there for most jobs (again, unless you are in certain tech fields).

As for the SF lifestyle, I can see your kids loving it, but just picture some mid 30s guys trying to get down with some 22 year olds and it’s a sad picture. 🙂

As for why, just wasn’t interested in it anymore and had no interest in keeping up. It’s hard to succeed if you simply aren’t interested at all in keeping up with the technology which changes rapidly…

If you’ve worked in SV, SV is all work. I think the AMC Mercado was the only place I’ve seen where companies had job postings before the movie starts.

Bottom line, money isn’t everything. Especially if you make more than 75k apparently 😉 so if you’re not really interested in keeping up with the Jones, leaving the rat race behind isn’t really that big of a deal.

I think a lot of people wouldn’t mind making 20% less if they could work less and still keep their job, health benefits, etc…

[joec]

We left primarily so we can own a house (if that’s your thing which was ours). It is a ton more affordable here. This is why as bad as the bears see it, housing here in SD for what you get is “cheap” for any norcal or LA person. Pay is lower, but housing cost is much higher than your wage would be up there for most jobs (again, unless you are in certain tech fields).

As for the SF lifestyle, I can see your kids loving it, but just picture some mid 30s guys trying to get down with some 22 year olds and it’s a sad picture. 🙂

As for why, just wasn’t interested in it anymore and had no interest in keeping up. It’s hard to succeed if you simply aren’t interested at all in keeping up with the technology which changes rapidly…

If you’ve worked in SV, SV is all work. I think the AMC Mercado was the only place I’ve seen where companies had job postings before the movie starts.

Bottom line, money isn’t everything. Especially if you make more than 75k apparently 😉 so if you’re not really interested in keeping up with the Jones, leaving the rat race behind isn’t really that big of a deal.

I think a lot of people wouldn’t mind making 20% less if they could work less and still keep their job, health benefits, etc…

[joec]

We left primarily so we can own a house (if that’s your thing which was ours). It is a ton more affordable here. This is why as bad as the bears see it, housing here in SD for what you get is “cheap” for any norcal or LA person. Pay is lower, but housing cost is much higher than your wage would be up there for most jobs (again, unless you are in certain tech fields).

As for the SF lifestyle, I can see your kids loving it, but just picture some mid 30s guys trying to get down with some 22 year olds and it’s a sad picture. 🙂

As for why, just wasn’t interested in it anymore and had no interest in keeping up. It’s hard to succeed if you simply aren’t interested at all in keeping up with the technology which changes rapidly…

If you’ve worked in SV, SV is all work. I think the AMC Mercado was the only place I’ve seen where companies had job postings before the movie starts.

Bottom line, money isn’t everything. Especially if you make more than 75k apparently 😉 so if you’re not really interested in keeping up with the Jones, leaving the rat race behind isn’t really that big of a deal.

I think a lot of people wouldn’t mind making 20% less if they could work less and still keep their job, health benefits, etc…

[joec]

We left primarily so we can own a house (if that’s your thing which was ours). It is a ton more affordable here. This is why as bad as the bears see it, housing here in SD for what you get is “cheap” for any norcal or LA person. Pay is lower, but housing cost is much higher than your wage would be up there for most jobs (again, unless you are in certain tech fields).

As for the SF lifestyle, I can see your kids loving it, but just picture some mid 30s guys trying to get down with some 22 year olds and it’s a sad picture. 🙂

As for why, just wasn’t interested in it anymore and had no interest in keeping up. It’s hard to succeed if you simply aren’t interested at all in keeping up with the technology which changes rapidly…

If you’ve worked in SV, SV is all work. I think the AMC Mercado was the only place I’ve seen where companies had job postings before the movie starts.

Bottom line, money isn’t everything. Especially if you make more than 75k apparently 😉 so if you’re not really interested in keeping up with the Jones, leaving the rat race behind isn’t really that big of a deal.

I think a lot of people wouldn’t mind making 20% less if they could work less and still keep their job, health benefits, etc…

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