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in about two years there will be forums at the large mortgage banking conferences throughout the u.s. called “keys for survival in the mortgage banking industry.” mortgage banking is one of THE most cyclical businesses out there. and this has been a decade-long up cycle. i suspect that mortgage banking employment will ultimately drop to half its peak 2004 levels and profitability will be hard to achieve even for the efficient operators. bull markets hide all sorts of sins…
also, i wonder how many of this 3,800 are either recent home buyers or serial home equity extractors with “innovative mortgages”?
I met one of the upper management staff for Ameriquest’s corporate office a couple weeks ago. Nice guy, I hope he makes it. He was recently hired to clean up some of their mess. The closing of the branch offices is consistent with what he was recommending they do to stave off their regulatory problems with some of the states. Ameriquest was reportedly about 1″ away from getting kicked out of a couple states anyway. I think this move has more to do with reining in their branches, many of which have been out of control for a while now, than it does with declining volumes.
On the other hand, I personally know of a couple mortgage brokerages in town that are already in some real pain because of declining volumes here. I also know of a couple of the realty agents here in town who have hit a wall – no sales since the beginning of the year. I’ll wager the Hummer dealers will have a glut of used H2s pretty quick.
What are the mortgage brokers and realtors, who lost their income, doing to get by? How long had they been in the business?