A perfect storm brewing 2010-2012?

[briansd1]

[quote=XBoxBoy]
Sorry, I must have missed that. Where did the original poster, pencilneck, blame Obama and the democrats in this thread?
[/quote]

I have to apologize to pencilneck if it was construed that way.

I shouldn’t mix the threads.

[quote=XBoxBoy]
But even though I missed that part, do me a favor, give some thought to not retaliating in kind. At the risk of sounding like an old curmudgeon, I’ll quote my Granddad, “two wrongs don’t make a right.”[/quote]

Your grandpa sounds like fine man.

[quote=XBoxBoy]
What I can tell you though is that polarizing arguments, making them into good guys vs bad guys was something that Ronald Reagan did very well. And I guess if you like being compared to Ronald Reagan and you want to have debates at his level, well, then that’s fine. But if not, you might try to elevate the level of your discourse to take into consideration all the different views and not pigeon hole people into good guys vs bad guys. Just a thought.[/quote]

Advise well taken… I like you already. 🙂

[sdrealtor]

Only problem with your perfect storm hypothesis is that if nothing else we have learned there is no perfect storm in this market. There are way too many forces acting upon it for it to all converge perfectly. Plan on more extending and pretending.

[sdrealtor]

Only problem with your perfect storm hypothesis is that if nothing else we have learned there is no perfect storm in this market. There are way too many forces acting upon it for it to all converge perfectly. Plan on more extending and pretending.

[sdrealtor]

Only problem with your perfect storm hypothesis is that if nothing else we have learned there is no perfect storm in this market. There are way too many forces acting upon it for it to all converge perfectly. Plan on more extending and pretending.

[sdrealtor]

Only problem with your perfect storm hypothesis is that if nothing else we have learned there is no perfect storm in this market. There are way too many forces acting upon it for it to all converge perfectly. Plan on more extending and pretending.

[sdrealtor]

Only problem with your perfect storm hypothesis is that if nothing else we have learned there is no perfect storm in this market. There are way too many forces acting upon it for it to all converge perfectly. Plan on more extending and pretending.

[pencilneck]

I slightly disagree. Recent events would suggest the opposite. The tech bubble of 2001, the housing bust, the banking crises, etc. lead me to believe that, call them what you will, perfect storms obviously happen. And recently with alarming frequency.

I agree that by timing a future perfect storm in the 2010-12 time frame makes the (rather ridiculous) assumption that there will be no changes to current policy. But it is the coming changes to these policies that will help to determine the timing, size, and scope of our next crisis.

To correct an inaccuracy in my hypothetical scenario: It is the date that the debt is forgiven that is key to tax implications, rather than the date of foreclosure.

[pencilneck]

I slightly disagree. Recent events would suggest the opposite. The tech bubble of 2001, the housing bust, the banking crises, etc. lead me to believe that, call them what you will, perfect storms obviously happen. And recently with alarming frequency.

I agree that by timing a future perfect storm in the 2010-12 time frame makes the (rather ridiculous) assumption that there will be no changes to current policy. But it is the coming changes to these policies that will help to determine the timing, size, and scope of our next crisis.

To correct an inaccuracy in my hypothetical scenario: It is the date that the debt is forgiven that is key to tax implications, rather than the date of foreclosure.

[pencilneck]

I slightly disagree. Recent events would suggest the opposite. The tech bubble of 2001, the housing bust, the banking crises, etc. lead me to believe that, call them what you will, perfect storms obviously happen. And recently with alarming frequency.

I agree that by timing a future perfect storm in the 2010-12 time frame makes the (rather ridiculous) assumption that there will be no changes to current policy. But it is the coming changes to these policies that will help to determine the timing, size, and scope of our next crisis.

To correct an inaccuracy in my hypothetical scenario: It is the date that the debt is forgiven that is key to tax implications, rather than the date of foreclosure.

[pencilneck]

I slightly disagree. Recent events would suggest the opposite. The tech bubble of 2001, the housing bust, the banking crises, etc. lead me to believe that, call them what you will, perfect storms obviously happen. And recently with alarming frequency.

I agree that by timing a future perfect storm in the 2010-12 time frame makes the (rather ridiculous) assumption that there will be no changes to current policy. But it is the coming changes to these policies that will help to determine the timing, size, and scope of our next crisis.

To correct an inaccuracy in my hypothetical scenario: It is the date that the debt is forgiven that is key to tax implications, rather than the date of foreclosure.

[pencilneck]

I slightly disagree. Recent events would suggest the opposite. The tech bubble of 2001, the housing bust, the banking crises, etc. lead me to believe that, call them what you will, perfect storms obviously happen. And recently with alarming frequency.

I agree that by timing a future perfect storm in the 2010-12 time frame makes the (rather ridiculous) assumption that there will be no changes to current policy. But it is the coming changes to these policies that will help to determine the timing, size, and scope of our next crisis.

To correct an inaccuracy in my hypothetical scenario: It is the date that the debt is forgiven that is key to tax implications, rather than the date of foreclosure.

[poorgradstudent]

On the one hand, to my knowledge everything pencilneck listed in the original post is factually correct, and reason for concern house prices will keep falling.

On the other hand, the employment forecast for late 2010 into 2011 is pretty good. Job losses have mostly stabilized, and sooner or later job growth will start. The “green shoots” are growing a bit more. So the employment picture will get a little better.

I actually expect housing to be pretty flat for the next two years. No serious further collapse in price, but no sudden rebound either.

[poorgradstudent]

On the one hand, to my knowledge everything pencilneck listed in the original post is factually correct, and reason for concern house prices will keep falling.

On the other hand, the employment forecast for late 2010 into 2011 is pretty good. Job losses have mostly stabilized, and sooner or later job growth will start. The “green shoots” are growing a bit more. So the employment picture will get a little better.

I actually expect housing to be pretty flat for the next two years. No serious further collapse in price, but no sudden rebound either.

[poorgradstudent]

On the one hand, to my knowledge everything pencilneck listed in the original post is factually correct, and reason for concern house prices will keep falling.

On the other hand, the employment forecast for late 2010 into 2011 is pretty good. Job losses have mostly stabilized, and sooner or later job growth will start. The “green shoots” are growing a bit more. So the employment picture will get a little better.

I actually expect housing to be pretty flat for the next two years. No serious further collapse in price, but no sudden rebound either.

[poorgradstudent]

On the one hand, to my knowledge everything pencilneck listed in the original post is factually correct, and reason for concern house prices will keep falling.

On the other hand, the employment forecast for late 2010 into 2011 is pretty good. Job losses have mostly stabilized, and sooner or later job growth will start. The “green shoots” are growing a bit more. So the employment picture will get a little better.

I actually expect housing to be pretty flat for the next two years. No serious further collapse in price, but no sudden rebound either.

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