92107 inventory way way down from Summer 2017

[gzz]

July 2 2018 35 houses, 4 condos
July 2 2017 42 houses, 9 condos
July 3 2016 27 houses, 8 condos
July 5 2015 30 houses, 12 condos

Can’t wait to see Rich’s latest YoY data.

Had a quick look also at downtown and PB, the other markets I used to follow, but have not in a while.

I am pleased to see that OB is finally outperforming these markets after years of lagging. Seems to partly be an inventory issue. Downtown just keeps getting more condo towers, and much of PB can be converted to multifamily, or current 1-floor multifamily apartment complexes built up to the max zoning allows.

Ocean Beach, by contrast, development is severely limited by the 0.7 lot ratio rule plus 25% off-street parking requirements. In practice a development can get a variance to break these rules a little bit. But even with a variance, you might get 0.8 FAR and .2 parking, compared to the 1.2 you get in the rest of coastal San Diego. Thus a 5,000SF multifamily lot in OB can be built with 2250 of living space without a variance, and perhaps 3000sf as a reasonable goal for a variance. In MB/PB I believe you could build about 6000sf on the same size multifamily lot.

Likewise, once you go east of Sunset Cliffs, you often have even more restrictive zoning that for the most part allows nothing more than one big house and maybe a granny flat over the alley garage.

[moneymaker]

So you would make granny walk up a flight of stairs to get to her place? All kidding aside there seems to be a “lot” of variance as far as inventory. Driving around yesterday I was somewhat surprised how many homes I saw with for sale signs in front of them. Granted half of those may have already sold but seems to me more people are seeing the light and listing their properties.

[gzz]

SFH inventory in 92107 is currently below 1 month.

Condo inventory is slightly high because a new 30-unit townhouse development was completed last year at 4100 Voltaire. It is now more than half sold.

Looks like 2020 could be a big, 8-10% price increase year:

1. Low rates
2. Booming stock market helps fund downpayments
3. Booming economy helps incomes
4. New construction still very low
5. Inventory extremely low.

The past few years I think conservative pricing by sellers may have also held us back a little.

Just looking at the most recent listings and closings, the prices seem kind of high, yet go pending and then close quickly.

I also feel we’re due for a little catchup appreciation. San Diego has underperformed peer markets the past decade, both the other big west coast cities as well as Denver, LV, and Phoenix.

There’s no rule this has to happen, but the extra value you get moving here from LA/Bay Area is bigger than ever, and the extra cost of moving here from somewhere like Denver or Austin is smaller than ever.

[gzz]

California median SFH price went up 10% YoY in Dec 2019:

https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2020releases/december2019sales

Lots of other bullish stats in that article.

Unfortunately for us, looks like it is another year San Diego underperformed.

Come on FANG/Big Tech, expand your SD offices faster so your staff can afford a house on a $150,000 wage!

This is by far the best use of the Qualcomm and Sports Arena sites. I do like going to Koby’s swap meet a couple times a year, but what a poor use of prime RE.

Besides the Arena lot itself, the city also owns some of the strip malls around it. The Pier One next door for example had its lease non-renewed in preparation for redevelopment.

[Myriad]

[quote=gzz]Come on FANG/Big Tech, expand your SD offices faster so your staff can afford a house on a $150,000 wage![/quote]

It’s a lot cheaper for those businesses to expand in states like CO, TX, or FL rather than SD.

[barnaby33]

It’s a lot cheaper for those businesses to expand in states like CO, TX, or FL rather than SD.

Is it? Seems like it gets tried every decade or so but the businesses keep returning to SoCal/NorCal because that’s where the quality employees want to be.
Josh

[gzz]

Current 92107 inventory: 29.
Sales in past 30 days: 26.

That’s a 1.1 month supply in the middle of winter!

2020 could finally be another year of 10% price gains!

Low rates have sent refi levels to the highest since 2013.

[Anonymous]

[quote=gzz]Current 92107 inventory: 29.
Sales in past 30 days: 26.

That’s a 1.1 month supply in the middle of winter!

2020 could finally be another year of 10% price gains!

Low rates have sent refi levels to the highest since 2013.[/quote]

Sound like you are rolling in houses. Here in 92126 we only have 8 houses for sales and 31 in escrows. Good thing we have plenty of lizards

[gzz]

Wow I am see 5 properties without HOA for sale there and 17 sales in the past 30 days. 0.3 month supply!

The share of houses sold above asking is high too.

[Anonymous]

[quote=LizardLandBrian][quote=gzz]Current 92107 inventory: 29.
Sales in past 30 days: 26.

That’s a 1.1 month supply in the middle of winter!

2020 could finally be another year of 10% price gains!

Low rates have sent refi levels to the highest since 2013.[/quote]

Sound like you are rolling in houses. Here in 92126 we only have 8 houses for sales and 31 in escrows. Good thing we have plenty of lizards[/quote]

But how many walls do they have? And are they stucco boxes?

[Author]

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