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Nor-LA-SD-guy.
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April 17, 2009 at 5:42 PM #383927April 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM #383313
SDEngineer
Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
April 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM #383576Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
April 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM #383768Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
April 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM #383816Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
April 17, 2009 at 5:54 PM #383945Participant[quote=Rt.66]
How about 1980s prices for SD RE in 2018?
Do you suppose 1990 bubble prices in Japan are still considered the “regular price” or the point at which discounts begin?
Today, would a Japanese buyer be tempted by a realtor stating the house was 50% off what it sold for in 1990? Or would that 1990 number be considered an absurd anomaly today?
[/quote]Feel free to wait that long. I have exceedingly serious doubts they would come anywhere close to falling that far. For one thing, for prices to fall that far, income would likely have to be cut by 30% over the next 8 years – otherwise price to income ratios would be in the 1.5:1 range, which would be historically unprecedented (median house price in 1988 was $145K).
Of course, inflation adjusted, it won’t be surprising at all to see that – but an inflation adjusted 1988 price is 260K – not far off where we are now.
In current 2009 dollars though? I just don’t see it.
April 17, 2009 at 6:06 PM #383322Rt.66
ParticipantSDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages.
April 17, 2009 at 6:06 PM #383586ParticipantSDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages.
April 17, 2009 at 6:06 PM #383778ParticipantSDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages.
April 17, 2009 at 6:06 PM #383826ParticipantSDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages.
April 17, 2009 at 6:06 PM #383955ParticipantSDdataEngineer:
Any rise in wages SD enjoyed between 2002 and 2008 was fake, total BS. Housewives were pulling down $100k taking orders from house buyers. Brokers were making a killing making expensive loans to any one who could fog a mirror, etc.
SD went from wages falling after the fake Dot Com bubble burst to another fake up-tick with more flash-in-the-pan bubble jobs.
Looking thru those rose colored glasses, can you see another bubble on the horizon that will keep SD wages from falling for years to come?
“During this entire economic cycle since 2000, working people here in San Diego have not made any significantprogress in earnings,” said Murtaza Baxamusa, research and policy director of the Center on Policy Initiatives, a local think tank on labor issues.
“With inflation much higher in 2008, it’s going to be downhill from here. Families are facing a tougher struggle to get by.”San Diego’s median income dropped sharply in 2002 after the high-tech boom stalled; rebounded from 2004 through 2006, coinciding with the rise of the housing bubble; but then stalled in 2007 after the realestate market peaked”
The bubble areas had the bubble wages to temporarily boost the wage figures. The non-bubble areas got their asses kicked.
Your wage figures are a bubble anomaly not real wages.
April 17, 2009 at 6:21 PM #383327ParticipantSD average wages for 2007 was $61k and expected to fall from there.
2.5 times earnings ($61k) equals $152,500.00
Housing prices at 2.5 times earnings is a good historical ratio for bad economic times.
70% of our GDP is consumer spending. Without bubble dollars we will need figures like that to allow consumers the extra money to spend and get the economy going.
So yeah, 1980s pricing of $145k non-masturabated with inflation is pretty close.
April 17, 2009 at 6:21 PM #383591ParticipantSD average wages for 2007 was $61k and expected to fall from there.
2.5 times earnings ($61k) equals $152,500.00
Housing prices at 2.5 times earnings is a good historical ratio for bad economic times.
70% of our GDP is consumer spending. Without bubble dollars we will need figures like that to allow consumers the extra money to spend and get the economy going.
So yeah, 1980s pricing of $145k non-masturabated with inflation is pretty close.
April 17, 2009 at 6:21 PM #383783ParticipantSD average wages for 2007 was $61k and expected to fall from there.
2.5 times earnings ($61k) equals $152,500.00
Housing prices at 2.5 times earnings is a good historical ratio for bad economic times.
70% of our GDP is consumer spending. Without bubble dollars we will need figures like that to allow consumers the extra money to spend and get the economy going.
So yeah, 1980s pricing of $145k non-masturabated with inflation is pretty close.
April 17, 2009 at 6:21 PM #383831ParticipantSD average wages for 2007 was $61k and expected to fall from there.
2.5 times earnings ($61k) equals $152,500.00
Housing prices at 2.5 times earnings is a good historical ratio for bad economic times.
70% of our GDP is consumer spending. Without bubble dollars we will need figures like that to allow consumers the extra money to spend and get the economy going.
So yeah, 1980s pricing of $145k non-masturabated with inflation is pretty close.
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