50% off is the regular price.

[Rt.66]

SDEngineer:

I just found this concerning the Economist/Case-Shiller chart I referenced.

The term “Urban land prices” is misleading as the Japanese report RE values differently than we do. If you check out this explanation of the Japan Urban Land Prices report:

http://www.reinet.or.jp/en/pdf/20081216pdf1.pdf

it appears they look at the value of the land under a house or CR building in reporting (they seperate the value of the building out). So the Case-Shiller chart is not comparing US houses to Japanese raw land per-se. It’s comparing the closest apples to apples report available.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=4plexowner]the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found[/quote]

One thing I would add here is, I think a lot of people on this board keep comparing this bubble to (thinking is like) 1991-1997 .

This bubble is nothing like 1991-1997, in that burst a large part of the industry picked up and left taking a lot of the most talented people in the region with them. That’s not happening this time.

I would guess that when the economy turns, the market will SLOWLY start to recover, That being said I would think by 2017 we would be back close to peak price …

OK everyone go ahead take your best shot ,,, Just kidding.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=4plexowner]the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found[/quote]

One thing I would add here is, I think a lot of people on this board keep comparing this bubble to (thinking is like) 1991-1997 .

This bubble is nothing like 1991-1997, in that burst a large part of the industry picked up and left taking a lot of the most talented people in the region with them. That’s not happening this time.

I would guess that when the economy turns, the market will SLOWLY start to recover, That being said I would think by 2017 we would be back close to peak price …

OK everyone go ahead take your best shot ,,, Just kidding.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=4plexowner]the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found[/quote]

One thing I would add here is, I think a lot of people on this board keep comparing this bubble to (thinking is like) 1991-1997 .

This bubble is nothing like 1991-1997, in that burst a large part of the industry picked up and left taking a lot of the most talented people in the region with them. That’s not happening this time.

I would guess that when the economy turns, the market will SLOWLY start to recover, That being said I would think by 2017 we would be back close to peak price …

OK everyone go ahead take your best shot ,,, Just kidding.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=4plexowner]the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found[/quote]

One thing I would add here is, I think a lot of people on this board keep comparing this bubble to (thinking is like) 1991-1997 .

This bubble is nothing like 1991-1997, in that burst a large part of the industry picked up and left taking a lot of the most talented people in the region with them. That’s not happening this time.

I would guess that when the economy turns, the market will SLOWLY start to recover, That being said I would think by 2017 we would be back close to peak price …

OK everyone go ahead take your best shot ,,, Just kidding.

[Nor-LA-SD-guy]

[quote=4plexowner]the people that write about bubble psychology say that once a bubble pops the people will not re-enter that market for a full generation – ie, the no-longer-bubbly asset is not even considered as an investment possibility for a full generation at least

that would put the start of the next appreciation cycle in real estate around 2027 (20 years from peak) to 2047 (40 years from peak)

I have been reading Martin Armstrong’s papers looking in particular for his thoughts on real estate – he says earliest recovery is 4 years from peak which is 2011 – more likely is 10 years from peak which is 2017 – outside possibility is that real estate is NEVER again considered an investment

[google Martin Armstrong and you will find his works – eye opening the way he is being treated by our government – Kondratieff was put to death for the same accuracy in economic forecasting that Mr. Armstrong has demonstrated]

I believe that bubble psychology is worth giving some thought to when considering San Diego real estate prices – be careful comparing what happened from 1998 to 2007 to previous real estate cycles

~

before I started selling my rental units I researched all the real estate bears I could find (2002-2004 timeframe) – John Templeton was predicting as much as a 70% decline in US real estate values – his was the most bearish prediction I found[/quote]

One thing I would add here is, I think a lot of people on this board keep comparing this bubble to (thinking is like) 1991-1997 .

This bubble is nothing like 1991-1997, in that burst a large part of the industry picked up and left taking a lot of the most talented people in the region with them. That’s not happening this time.

I would guess that when the economy turns, the market will SLOWLY start to recover, That being said I would think by 2017 we would be back close to peak price …

OK everyone go ahead take your best shot ,,, Just kidding.

[Rt.66]

Another way to look at things:

My national inflation calculator shows 19% inflation from 2002-2008. So if I get 50% off today is that 30% off adjusted for inflation? IE, my dollar was worth 19% more in 2002 when I could have bought a house for say $250k, ($500k bubble price in 2006) than it is today when I pay $250k (50% off bubble price).

If I could go back in time and take $300k with me, my $300k would be worth 19% more in that time; I’m still paying $250k for the house plus… I get the benefit of the left over $50k buying me 19% more goods and services. So I am wealthier in 2002. Thus, 69% off is needed today just to get back to 2002 wealth.

When wages fail to keep pace with inflation (which they have for 20 plus years) then even inflation dictates housing should get cheaper.

[Rt.66]

Another way to look at things:

My national inflation calculator shows 19% inflation from 2002-2008. So if I get 50% off today is that 30% off adjusted for inflation? IE, my dollar was worth 19% more in 2002 when I could have bought a house for say $250k, ($500k bubble price in 2006) than it is today when I pay $250k (50% off bubble price).

If I could go back in time and take $300k with me, my $300k would be worth 19% more in that time; I’m still paying $250k for the house plus… I get the benefit of the left over $50k buying me 19% more goods and services. So I am wealthier in 2002. Thus, 69% off is needed today just to get back to 2002 wealth.

When wages fail to keep pace with inflation (which they have for 20 plus years) then even inflation dictates housing should get cheaper.

[Rt.66]

Another way to look at things:

My national inflation calculator shows 19% inflation from 2002-2008. So if I get 50% off today is that 30% off adjusted for inflation? IE, my dollar was worth 19% more in 2002 when I could have bought a house for say $250k, ($500k bubble price in 2006) than it is today when I pay $250k (50% off bubble price).

If I could go back in time and take $300k with me, my $300k would be worth 19% more in that time; I’m still paying $250k for the house plus… I get the benefit of the left over $50k buying me 19% more goods and services. So I am wealthier in 2002. Thus, 69% off is needed today just to get back to 2002 wealth.

When wages fail to keep pace with inflation (which they have for 20 plus years) then even inflation dictates housing should get cheaper.

[Rt.66]

Another way to look at things:

My national inflation calculator shows 19% inflation from 2002-2008. So if I get 50% off today is that 30% off adjusted for inflation? IE, my dollar was worth 19% more in 2002 when I could have bought a house for say $250k, ($500k bubble price in 2006) than it is today when I pay $250k (50% off bubble price).

If I could go back in time and take $300k with me, my $300k would be worth 19% more in that time; I’m still paying $250k for the house plus… I get the benefit of the left over $50k buying me 19% more goods and services. So I am wealthier in 2002. Thus, 69% off is needed today just to get back to 2002 wealth.

When wages fail to keep pace with inflation (which they have for 20 plus years) then even inflation dictates housing should get cheaper.

[Rt.66]

Another way to look at things:

My national inflation calculator shows 19% inflation from 2002-2008. So if I get 50% off today is that 30% off adjusted for inflation? IE, my dollar was worth 19% more in 2002 when I could have bought a house for say $250k, ($500k bubble price in 2006) than it is today when I pay $250k (50% off bubble price).

If I could go back in time and take $300k with me, my $300k would be worth 19% more in that time; I’m still paying $250k for the house plus… I get the benefit of the left over $50k buying me 19% more goods and services. So I am wealthier in 2002. Thus, 69% off is needed today just to get back to 2002 wealth.

When wages fail to keep pace with inflation (which they have for 20 plus years) then even inflation dictates housing should get cheaper.

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.[/quote]

The bubble bloggers’ homemade charts were FAR more accurate than the MSM’s charts all throughout this bubble. They appear to be more indepth and accurate in this one as well.

The Economist used this chart to attempt to show that Japan’s runup in prices was MUCH lower than the U.S.’s, when in fact comparing similar indices showed a similar runup in prices nationwide between the U.S. and Japan in terms of housing prices, and a significantly LARGER bubble when compared to large bubble cities (like San Diego or Miami compared to Tokyo or Kyoto).

Our land, btw, had further to run up than Japans did – at the beginning of the bubble, land was CHEAP in most of the US. It was NOT cheap in Japan pre-bubble.

As the blogger noted as well, inflation was substantially higher here over the same runup period than it was in Japan, which also has an effect (ignored again by the Economist’s shallow analysis).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.[/quote]

The bubble bloggers’ homemade charts were FAR more accurate than the MSM’s charts all throughout this bubble. They appear to be more indepth and accurate in this one as well.

The Economist used this chart to attempt to show that Japan’s runup in prices was MUCH lower than the U.S.’s, when in fact comparing similar indices showed a similar runup in prices nationwide between the U.S. and Japan in terms of housing prices, and a significantly LARGER bubble when compared to large bubble cities (like San Diego or Miami compared to Tokyo or Kyoto).

Our land, btw, had further to run up than Japans did – at the beginning of the bubble, land was CHEAP in most of the US. It was NOT cheap in Japan pre-bubble.

As the blogger noted as well, inflation was substantially higher here over the same runup period than it was in Japan, which also has an effect (ignored again by the Economist’s shallow analysis).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.[/quote]

The bubble bloggers’ homemade charts were FAR more accurate than the MSM’s charts all throughout this bubble. They appear to be more indepth and accurate in this one as well.

The Economist used this chart to attempt to show that Japan’s runup in prices was MUCH lower than the U.S.’s, when in fact comparing similar indices showed a similar runup in prices nationwide between the U.S. and Japan in terms of housing prices, and a significantly LARGER bubble when compared to large bubble cities (like San Diego or Miami compared to Tokyo or Kyoto).

Our land, btw, had further to run up than Japans did – at the beginning of the bubble, land was CHEAP in most of the US. It was NOT cheap in Japan pre-bubble.

As the blogger noted as well, inflation was substantially higher here over the same runup period than it was in Japan, which also has an effect (ignored again by the Economist’s shallow analysis).

[SDEngineer]

[quote=Rt.66]SDEngineer:

That chart is of questionable origins don’t you think? Its a bubble bloggers homemade chart from what I can see. Still, nationally it even shows Japans price run up was worse than ours.

Our RE bubble certainly includes land and also CR just like Japan’s bubble did. So if we could find a US chart that shows just land I’m guessing we’d have the a similar chart to the Economist’s chart.[/quote]

The bubble bloggers’ homemade charts were FAR more accurate than the MSM’s charts all throughout this bubble. They appear to be more indepth and accurate in this one as well.

The Economist used this chart to attempt to show that Japan’s runup in prices was MUCH lower than the U.S.’s, when in fact comparing similar indices showed a similar runup in prices nationwide between the U.S. and Japan in terms of housing prices, and a significantly LARGER bubble when compared to large bubble cities (like San Diego or Miami compared to Tokyo or Kyoto).

Our land, btw, had further to run up than Japans did – at the beginning of the bubble, land was CHEAP in most of the US. It was NOT cheap in Japan pre-bubble.

As the blogger noted as well, inflation was substantially higher here over the same runup period than it was in Japan, which also has an effect (ignored again by the Economist’s shallow analysis).

[Author]

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